| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| admin |
Posted - 01/12/2011 : 22:44:04
Article contributed by Justin Goldman of www.DobberHockey.com
With the weekend acting as the NHL season’s midway point, the time has come for fantasy managers to dissect their teams and make adjustments for the second half. And if you’re one of the many managers looking to improve your goaltending stats, finding a buy-low bargain can set you on a course for late-season surges and playoff success.
Backed by wisdom and experience, a quality NHL goaltender rarely struggles for an entire season. If a veteran has a weak first half, there’s a good chance they will find a way to re-focus and re-energize in time to salvage their season. If a rookie or sophomore struggles in the first half from a statistical standpoint, most will adjust to the faster pace and improve drastically, especially if they log more minutes.
When it comes to extracting a buy-low candidate from the goaltending ranks, you need to keep in mind a couple of different factors and dynamics. Scrolling through the different goalies available in your league will present a number of different options, including free agency, trades and risky moves that could make or break your season.
First of all, it’s not always wise to pick the most talented goalie with the weakest stats. Focus on different elements of progress from their most recent performances. Are they making timely saves and improving their power play save percentage? Are they showing more consistency and durability? Has their role increased in the past few weeks, or has it waned due to the stronger play of another?
Most importantly, the biggest dynamic to dissect when looking at buy-low candidates is their current confidence. Is it low with the opportunity to rise up? Is it currently surging upward with no ceiling in sight? Did they have amazing success in the second half of last season?
In my opinion, that final aspect reveals to me that a goalie like Jonas Gustavsson is a viable buy-low candidate. Here’s three more quality buy-low candidates that could your struggling season around.
Martin Brodeur – The first key to analyzing Brodeur’s potential as a buy-low candidate is looking at his attitude and demeanor outside of games. As you may have heard, Brodeur has put his ego in check and, for the first time ever, let the Devils know he’s okay riding the pine until he’s refocused. Be sure to read some of his quotes and understand just how big of a deal this is.
Do you really think someone like Brodeur is not capable of having a stronger second half after something like this? Because his first half was so weak, he finally had to increase his work ethic in practice. And for a goalie with more wins and experience than anyone else, it will only lead to good things in the coming weeks. I also caught this tweet from TSN’s Scott Cullen about snagging Brodeur if you’re looking for a goalie that will get consistent starts.
I could have dedicated this entire column to Brodeur’s attitude change and the steps he’s taking to turn his season around. But actions always speak louder than words. Stopping 19 consecutive shots against the Flyers in relief of Johan Hedberg on Saturday and then stopping 33 of 36 shots in a 6-3 win over the Lightning on Sunday is all the proof you need that Brodeur made big strides over the weekend.
Aside from his personal reflections and adjustments, there’s always the key element of the team’s play in front of him. If the team continues to improve, it will only make Brodeur’s life easier. And as that pressure and tension is slowly released, the confidence will also rise. Don’t be surprised if he finishes the season with a save percentage above .900 and a 2.75 or 2.80 goals-against average.
Jose Theodore – When a goaltender shuts out the Pittsburgh Penguins, three things happen. First of all, their confidence soars. Secondly, they instill confidence in their teammates and coaching staff. Thirdly, they create a buzz within the media and fans, which often raises their reputation and opportunity.
And it doesn’t hurt to be named one of the NHL’s Three Stars of the Week, either. Oh, and neither does a potential serious injury to Niklas Backstrom. He’s currently in Colorado to visit with a specialist about his hip injury. I hate to say this, but don’t expect any good news to come from this. Anton Khudobin fans, time to eat your hearts out.
So unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last year, you know full well that Theodore’s perseverance and experience has made him one of the best backup goalies to own. He’s capable of playing well despite intermittent starts and he’s also capable of performing at a high level if he has to absorb a ton of minutes.
Overall, Theodore displays the traits of a true silent leader for the Wild. More importantly, however, his role is surging upwards due to Backstrom’s injury. All of the elements that you want in a buy-low bargain surround him right now, so get him while you can, before it’s too late.
Tuukka Rask – If you look at Rask’s 3-8-1 record and think he doesn’t have the strong fantasy value and upside I’ve been projecting over the last two years, I’ll scream bloody murder. When he plays, watch him closely. He’s displaying technique that every NHL goalie would kill to have and he’s still stopping a ton of pucks – 384 of 414 to be exact, good enough for a .928 save percentage.
Yes, I will admit that Rask is suffering from a sophomore slump. But he has not lost any long-term value and he hasn’t been de-evolving. I still consider him one of, if not the most talented butterfly goalies in the NHL and he’s only going to develop his mental toughness as the weeks roll along.
Although stats aren’t really my thing, there’s a few that stick out in my mind as visual proof of his quality play despite the weak record. His goals against by period are 13 in the first, 10 in the second and only seven in the third. He’s perfect in the shootout (only 2-for-2) and his .940 save percentage on home ice is beyond impressive.
Lastly, if you look at his stats from a month-to-month basis, you’ll find t hat the elusive element missing from Rask’s season is simply playing time. In October, he played two games and posted a 3.54 GAA and .894 save percentage. In November, he played six games and posted a 2.23 GAA and a .938 save percentage with one shutout. In December, he played just two games and posted a 2.53 GAA and a .929 save percentage.
This month, Rask has already played three games and has a .930 save percentage. At this rate, he’ll have his busiest month and could post close to the numbers he had in November. Clearly, like most rhythm goalies, the more he plays, the better he performs from a fantasy standpoint.
Ultimately, Rask’s value in the second half of season is reliant on Tim Thomas’ workload. The less Thomas plays, the more enticing Rask becomes as a buy-low candidate. The more Rask plays, the easier it will be for him to get into a rhythm and stop more than 93-percent of the shots he faces.
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| 6 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 01/14/2011 : 08:35:16
We'll see about SJ. They don't look like the team I've seen in years past, and I don't believe that they'll continue this way for long. And when they eventually pull themselves out of the funk, it will be Niemi in goal (Nitty last night, he didn't look great....).
I don't necessarily think their goalies will do better, only that the team will do better and the goalies will ride that success. Niemi already has good stats over the last couple of weeks - his team just isn't scoring for him.
Alex, I agree - hot Turco and the Canucks in the playoffs go together like bread and butter. That series a few years ago vs DAL, Luongo's first series - it was the first series ever where the goalie that lost the series also got 3 shutouts...he plays VAN tough.
I don't think Turco is coming back as the starter. CHI's plan was always to bring Crawford into the NHL and work him into a starter role, and this year he's showing that he can do it Schneider-style. He's been really good, and consistent so far. I only see Turco getting back into the net as a starter if Crawford collapses in the playoffs.
If CHI makes the playoffs that is (yeah Beans I'm looking at YOU!)  |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 01/14/2011 : 08:29:06
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
For me, my #1 comeback goalie in the second half is Turco. He's getting pushed hard right now by this Crawford kid, and I think it'll push him back into fine form when he falters.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
Slozo, i hope you're very wrong! The last thing i as a Canucks fan need to see is a "hot" Turco backing the Hawks as they enter the playoffs! This guys always played us tough through his career and we all know how the Hawks have played us! Even if the Canucks go on to finish 1st, that's not a matchup most Canucks fans would feel good about, especially if Turco steps his game up! |
| n/a |
Posted - 01/14/2011 : 05:47:54
San Jose has played absolutely terrible . .. they lost again to Edmonton, and looked like a different team than the one I used to know when I watched them in the Leafs game.
I honestly don't see the San Jose goalies doing much better in the second half . . . they are already a tandem, so people who have a goalie from San Jose already got one banking on a strong season. It ain't happening, so I would cut your losses if you can.
Brodeur though . . . I can see him bouncing back. Not necessarily in tandem with a great second half from the rest of New Jersey, but - he has a lot of pride, and surely doesn't want to go out like this. Whenever you count him out, he always comes back strong, and I would figure the same applies here. How strong is debateable, however . . . as he can't be much worse.
For me, my #1 comeback goalie in the second half is Turco. He's getting pushed hard right now by this Crawford kid, and I think it'll push him back into fine form when he falters.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 01/13/2011 : 19:16:53
given that he's at a low, I would not sell him right now - you'll get lowball offers. There is only upside for Kipper at this point, if you've ridden him all the way down to now you may as well hang on.
I'm in the same position with Brodeur in one of my leagues. I'm getting offers, but they're crap offers. Brodeur is playing badly right now, but I'm in second place with him, and I figure he can only get better from here on in. If he doesn't, then so be it, I don't seem to have suffered. |
| leigh |
Posted - 01/13/2011 : 12:25:07
Thanks for the article Justin. Nice read and interesting pespective.
I was wondering about Kipper? His fantasy value in a single season pool is waaaaay down, so under normal circumstances he would be a tremendous buy right now - if people were willing to give him up that is. This year they are willing to do so, mostly due to the uncertainty of the Flames future. Management may blow the team up by the end of Feb and then the wins and shut outs for him will be even more elusive. Is Mikka Kiprusoff of the Calgary Flames a buy or a sell?
Anyone know? |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 01/13/2011 : 08:04:22
good article.
I also think Antii Niemi will have a good second half. SJ has absolutely sucked in the first half (by their standards at least), and I think they finally hit a low point in that loss to the Leafs. They have the capability to do much better than they have been, and I think they'll have a stronger second half.
Niemi has been starting the lions share of their games recently, and except for the TOR game has a SV% well above .900 and a decent GAA - he's losing games because SJ isn't scoring goals. Once SJ start scoring again he'll get some wins, and some confidence. |
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