| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/28/2011 : 14:40:45
An interesting article from Kypreos about potential strategies with the combination of high profile RFA's and the new salary cap (and floor):
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2011/06/28/kypreos_stamkos/
It concentrates on Stamkos, but would also apply to Doughty... I wonder if any of the teams with money to burn would consider such a move to get Stamkos - a 1 year deal at the individual max of 12.4M would handcuff TB, and the team in theory gets Stamkos for next year and his rights beyond that.
Scary thought for TB. Interesting thought for TOR, NSH, NYI, COL, etc.
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| 27 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/30/2011 : 12:20:36
it is too much - for the Canucks. Nor do they have a real place for him without giving up one of Hank or Kesler, which isn't going to happen. I'm not suggesting that VAN would be in the running for Stamkos, I'm just using them as an example of a team that hasn't had an opportunity to draft high in recent years and would conceivably think they could do better by getting an established star.
The 12M route is but one route to take - I think it would guarantee that TB would not match, but even a reasonable multi-year offer at 7.5M per season might be hard for them to match. Based on the latter, teams that might look for someone like Stamkos:
- BOS - if they really thought that Savard was done completely, I think they'd be in the market for someone like Stamkos. They will likely do well for the next few years, meaning that their first round draft picks would be 24th or lower, and if Savard were gone they'd have the cap space to add an 7.5M/season player
- WIN - tons of cap space, and they were close to being a playoff team last year, and they need a top-line centre. If they were to aqcuire Stamkos, it would probably elevate their team into the top-half of the league in standings, meaning that their first rounders for the next little while might be bottom half.
- NYR - especially if they don't get Richards, they might consider something, as they cleared out room for it. However, they have a lot of important pieces to sign, so its hard to tell. But they are already a top-half team and someone like Stamkos has the ability to push them into the top10.
- CAR - the addition of Stamkos probably pushes them into the playoffs, thus making them top-half
- TOR - see CAR
- DET - never shy to trade away first rounders, consistently in the bottom 10 of the draft.
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| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/30/2011 : 11:45:25
Nuxfan, it's a good point that not every team who would sacrifice 4-1st rounders would be giving up as much as the teams I used as examples. However, the $12 million a season is also a huge challenge to over come. Sure, the Canucks would not have given up much in the draft picks, however the are also giving up the chance to sign other players. Consider the value of $12 million. That's nearly 1/2 of the defensive core of the Canucks! That's the price of 2 Sedins!!
Too much. Way too much. |
| Guest4312 |
Posted - 06/30/2011 : 10:38:01
i didn't know the cap floor has been around for a while... what has it been in recent years polishexpress? |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/30/2011 : 10:13:16
quote:
First of all, Stamkos does not have 50ish goals in his first 3 seasons. He has 1 season of 51, one of 45, and one of 23. That is negligibly better than guys like Heatley who had 26, 41 and 50 (not counting a 30 game season due to injuries where he had 13 goals) and Kovalchuk who had 29, 38, and 41 in their first 3 seasons. No one in their right mind would say either of those guys are (or would have been) worth 4-1st round draft picks.
Yeah, i worded that badly - I didn't mean to imply that he's had 50 goals in each of his first 3 seasons, rather that he has hit it, and more than once, in his first 3 seasons (45 is close enough in this regard). What I'm getting at is that he's a proven commodity at a young age.
quote:
I don't think people are valuing draft picks properly. Take a look at just about any team in the NHL who have had 4-1st round picks in the past 4 seasons and see the talent they have picked up.
I think valuing first round draft picks largely depends on your vantage point. Most teams have had 4 first round picks in the last 4 years, and you have listed 3 that have done remarkably well in draft years where there were elite prospects to be drafted in the early going. The Oil have drafted very well in the last 4 years, and yeah, you'd have a hard time convincing me that the 4 players drafted by the Oil are fair trade for Stamkos. Or CHI, or LA.
VAN on the other hand - if I could get my hands on Stamkos for Niklas Jensen, Jordan Schroder, Cody Hodgson, and Patrick White, I think I'd take it in a heartbeat.
Alex has a good point - teams that have done well and expect to continue to do well might make a play for Stamkos - first round draft picks in the bottom half of the draft are not nearly as valuable as those in the top half, and if you think Stamkos makes you even better, your draft picks get worse still.
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| n/a |
Posted - 06/30/2011 : 07:46:25
I don't value draft picks as highly as most do. And, Stamkos is an elite player, but not a proven superstar quite yet (for me). Last year's tail-off made me question that.
That being said, 4 first rounders is a lot, and it would depend on whether my team has other first round picks from other trades, etc. If so, I'd go for it - but only for true superstars.
That would include, as of this moment, Crosby, Ovechkin, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Ryan Getzlaf.
Stamkos, Ryan, Perry, Mike Richards, Brad Richards, Giroux, Eric Staal, Patrick Kane, Toews, Kesler, all on the bubble, depending on need/situation/picks.
But the situation of when you are picking is key. Top 5 versus top 10 is a whole different ballgame, and top 5 versus top 30 is a big difference.
And I would definitely still take Kessel over Seguin and Hamilton, sure - nothing there yet for me to change my mind on that.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/30/2011 : 07:30:07
quote:
Originally posted by nuxfan
quote:
Worth a lot, but not that much.
Personally, I would add Stamkos to that very small list, certainly Crosby and Ovechkin are as well - 3 definite players worth 4 first rounders. Players capable of scoring 50-ish goals consistently in their first 3 years of NHL duty come around very rarely - I just don't see him going down from where he is now, his best years are still miles in front of him.
We'll see soon enough I guess, unless TB can lock him up.
First of all, Stamkos does not have 50ish goals in his first 3 seasons. He has 1 season of 51, one of 45, and one of 23. That is negligibly better than guys like Heatley who had 26, 41 and 50 (not counting a 30 game season due to injuries where he had 13 goals) and Kovalchuk who had 29, 38, and 41 in their first 3 seasons. No one in their right mind would say either of those guys are (or would have been) worth 4-1st round draft picks.
I don't think people are valuing draft picks properly. Take a look at just about any team in the NHL who have had 4-1st round picks in the past 4 seasons and see the talent they have picked up. As I know the Oilers, think about Stamkos traded for Nugent-Hopkins, Hall, Paajarvi, and, Eberle. What about Chicago who got Toews, Kane, Skille, and Barker in a 4 year stretch. Or Pittsburgh with Crosby, Malkin, Fluery, and Jordan Staal. How about Washington with Backstrom, Alzner, Carlson, and Johansson. LA is another team that comes to mind with Kopitar, Bernier, Moeller, and Doughty. Consider that Taylor Hall had one less goal in 14 fewer games as a rookie than Stamkos did. I am not saying that Hall will be a 50 goal guy, but it is not far fetched to think he will be a 35-40 goal guy.
Not only this, but look at the financial impact. Again, looking at the Oilers, they have 4 players for 3 seasons each for around $3 million/player including bonuses. That's a grand total of $12 million for 12 years of total service. A team would spend that much on Stamkos for one season??
Finally, think about the trades in the past involving 1st round picks. Lindros comes to mind as does the Kessel deal. Now, the Lindros one is easy to judge. That trades and the draft picks involved turned Quebec/COL into a juggernaut for a decade and Philly came close to the Cup only once. The Kessel one is still up for debate however I would think few hockey people would consider Kessel over Seguin and Hamilton.
It's a crap shoot. It's literally a roll of the dice. If those 4-draft picks are top 10, it's a completely stupid decision. Even if they are not top 10, the finances alone make it questionable.
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| Guest8149 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 21:26:43
Very well put Alex! Separate and apart from being a top five team, I would pursue Stamkos if I were a bottom five team, like the Oilers, who would risk losing four 1st round picks, which would likely range from 10th to 25th the next four years.
Just to give you an idea of the uncertainty of draft picks, I dare anyone to pick four numbers evenly dispersed between 10 and 25 (and over four consecutive years), and THEN look at the selections, and you're very very unlikely to get a player as good as Stamkos. And remember, Stamkos has not even peaked as a player yet.
As far as the dollars go, if I'm a billionaire owner like Oilers owner Darryl Katz, I send an offer sheet in the neighbourhood of $60 million or $70 million to Stamkos for five or six years, and the Oilers suddenly look like cup contenders in four or five years, especially with their crop of young players. Sure, the lost first round draft choices will have some impact, but it's negligible, especially since a mid-round pick two, three or four years from now is not going to be a key player in this same period of time.
The key question though is whether Stamkos would take a lucrative deal to play in Edmonton (or Canada for thar matter), or would he rather stay in Tampa? |
| Pasty7 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 21:25:00
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
In my opinion, there are only 2-3 players in the entire league who are worth 4 - 1st round picks. I think Stamkos is a great player but he is not one of them. Crosby and Ovechkin would be the 2 off the top of my head. After that, there are a few maybes. Stamkos was 1-#1 draft pick. He is a great player but not a guy who will transcend the game.
Worth a lot, but not that much.
it would all depend on the situation the team was in, for example if i were GM of team X, team X is rebuilding with young talent and have recently traded away vetrans so that i have more than one first round pick in say next years draft, i would deffinetly consider it for Stamkos, for example say the Bruins still had Toronto's first rounder for next year and they had the cap space,, it would be more tempting because at least they would still have 1 first round pick,
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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| Alex116 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 20:56:04
Very tough call. If a team in the top 5 were to sign him (if they could afford him), you'd have to assume he'd make that team a consistent top 5 team for the foreseeable future. In that case, the picks would be between 25-30 for the next 4 years? Would that be worth it then? What are the chances you find an equivalent to Stamkos in that range? I guess there's always the Zetterbergs, Datsyuk's, etc who are rare finds, but would you do that deal if you were guaranteed the picks you were giving up were going to be in that range?? |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 20:37:07
quote:
Worth a lot, but not that much.
Personally, I would add Stamkos to that very small list, certainly Crosby and Ovechkin are as well - 3 definite players worth 4 first rounders. Players capable of scoring 50-ish goals consistently in their first 3 years of NHL duty come around very rarely - I just don't see him going down from where he is now, his best years are still miles in front of him.
We'll see soon enough I guess, unless TB can lock him up. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 20:19:31
In my opinion, there are only 2-3 players in the entire league who are worth 4 - 1st round picks. I think Stamkos is a great player but he is not one of them. Crosby and Ovechkin would be the 2 off the top of my head. After that, there are a few maybes. Stamkos was 1-#1 draft pick. He is a great player but not a guy who will transcend the game.
Worth a lot, but not that much. |
| polishexpress |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 15:50:48
Guest4312, cap floor has been there since the salary cap was put in. A minimum and maximum in a salary cap situation are supposed to level the playing field competitively. It has been an issue since day one for teams which had self-imposed salary limits before the lockout, because they now may have to spend more than they are comfortable with/ able to just to stay within league regulations. |
| Guest4312 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 15:43:29
it will be interesting to see how teams clawing for the cap floor spend there money.... short length with large amount? i don't think the cap floor is a bad idea but i think it may have been set a little high for its first year in place |
| Guest4312 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 15:41:52
although i wouldn't doubt an offer sheet colorado has duchene, stastny, hishon, o'reilly, and dupuis at center position so i doubt they are in the running for stammer.... |
| 99pickles |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 15:17:36
I don't see why at least a couple teams wouldn't be seriously interested in Stamkos. Every year or two there is a major offer-sheet situation.
Stamkos could really put Philly over the top; Winnipeg certainly has the cap space (as do some others); and as previously mentioned, Colorado is in a position to do so as well.
Don't fool yourself into thinking there is some kind of "honour" amongst all of the GMs...they ALL want to win, and badly!
I can't wait to see how this all plays out! |
| Guest9920 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 13:43:40
stamkos is worth 4 first round draft picks unless toronto signs him |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 10:00:31
with all due respect to those players, I think we can all agree that Stamkos a far better catch than either Kessel or Penner. I agree that many GM's would shy away from giving up 4 first rounders for most players, but Stamkos is not "most players", he's as solid as they come. While the Kypreos scenario may not play out in July, it would not surprise me to see at least one offer sheet come in for Stamkos at a level that would cost 4 first rounders. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 09:55:56
The Oilers gave up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft pick in 2008 when they signed Penner. The 1st round pick ended up in Buffalo (via LA, via Anaheim, via Edmonton) and was Tyler Myers. The 2nd round pick was Justin Schultz (playing in NCAA)drafted 43rd overall by Anaheim, and the 3rd round pick was a Russian named Kirill Petrov drafted 73rd overall by the Islanders (via Edmonton via Anaheim) who is playing in the KHL right now. |
| Leafs81 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 09:07:07
Giving up 4 1st rounders would absolutly kill a team. Burke gave out 2 1st rounders for Kessel and we will never hear the end of it. I don't think he will do that again. Plus Kessel was a RFA at the time and Burke publicly said that he doesn't want to steal a player from another team with the offer sheet. He was so mad when Kevin Lowe got Dustin Penner (and Beans how much did the Oilers give as a compensation for that???)
Burke is too stubborn to eat his words and give an offer sheet (thank god) |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/29/2011 : 07:25:58
The only way an RFA no longer is an RFA outside of putting in the time is by going to arbitration. From what I understand, if a player goes to arbitration and the team does not like the ruling, the player is automatically a UFA. For example, Anti Niemi last season.
As far as a $12 million offer sheet, sure it can be done. But as already stated, what GM is willing to give up 4-1st round draft picks for that player??? I can't think of too many. Wait, maybe that guy in Toronto?? |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/28/2011 : 19:28:56
its a good point PE - players do not have to accept offer sheets. I don't know when the last one happened, and I'd frankly be surprised if anyone turned down a 1yr/12.4M deal, you just never know what might happen in your career. |
| polishexpress |
Posted - 06/28/2011 : 17:18:49
Remember, the player first has to sign the offer sheet contract. So a team can offer it, but it doesn't mean the player will want to. Unless a player really wants to change teams, I don't see a guy signing a deal like that. You can always try to convince your team to do a "sign & trade" if you really want out and are an RFA. |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/28/2011 : 16:19:28
I don't think Stamkos would be UFA the year after, he'd still be RFA - but now owned by the new team. |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 06/28/2011 : 15:38:14
You think anyone would be crazy enough to do this? I mean, imagine Burke doing this and giving up 4 first rounders. Then, what if Stamkos hates TO and decides to go UFA the following year? Good bye Stamkos, good bye 4 first rounders, good bye any chance of the Leafs doing anything for another decade minimum!!!
I just don't see anyone doing this unless they had some sort of guarantee from Stamkos that he'd resign at a reasonable long term price afterwards. |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/28/2011 : 15:14:12
I believe the max compensation for any offer sheet is 4 first round picks. That would be for any offer sheet with an annual salary of over 7.6M.
I agree, its crazy to think about this, but I guess the logic goes that you overpay like mad for 1 year (a year when you need to make it up to the floor anyway), and then sign to something reasonable after that. |
| polishexpress |
Posted - 06/28/2011 : 15:11:57
What would be the compensation for a crazy, 1-year, 12mil offersheet? |
| Pasty7 |
Posted - 06/28/2011 : 15:11:12
maybe thats what Colorado is up too!! seriously most of their team is signed they have 14 players signed and of their players not signed the most expensive would be Fleishman and other than Fleishman and Koci all their players are RFA`s so when all their players are signed they will probably 8 millions shy of the floor with a full team... i had no idea what they were going to do but maybe this is their secret plan
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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