| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 07/13/2008 : 15:39:34
Vincent Lecavalier resigned with Tampa Bay for 11 years making him part of the team until he is 40! Reports say is it $85 million over 11 years kicking in starting in the 09/10 season.
1st 7 years - $10 million per season
8th year - $8.5 million
9th year - $4 million
10th year - $1.5 million
11th eyar - $1 million
Lecavalier is a 0.84 ppg player for his career yet in the past three years has 275 points in 243 games (1.13 PPG).
What are your thoughts?? |
| 12 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| 99pickles |
Posted - 07/15/2008 : 13:14:57
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
I think that in 5 years a salary cap of $70 million is reasonably accurate.
If the increases over the next 5 years drop by even 1.5% each year(I mean from 12% to 10.5%, to 9% etc), it will put the cap in 5 years as about $85 million.
That (market wise) would make sense to me.
Well $85M is certainly a lot more than your first suggestion of $70M
One more scenario: if the next 5 increases are 10%-8%-6%-4%-2% respectively for the next five years (which is only a luke-warm scenario - it could get a lot worse than that) the cap would still be $75.7M at that time.
I haven't read the CBA in some time now, and I don't think I will again any time soon, but they do put money (from both sides, mind you) into an escrow of sorts to protect against decreased profits. If I remember correctly, they take it out and distribute it accordingly when it appears that lack of growth isn't happening for that year of the CBA - a couple months before the next year's cap is determined.
That of course is the loosest, most rudimentary explanation of that portion of the CBA that anyone's ever offered!! You might be better off looking it up (I may have even interposed elements of the previous agreement in there too) |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 07/15/2008 : 11:31:59
Pickles, it doesn't take a savant to know that the cap started at $39 million and moved to the $56 million it is today.
And I am not using pure numbers. I am simply saying that I feel the initial number of $39 million was a low starting point. The increases over the past 3 seasons will not continue (IMO). It all has to do with revenue. What happens if the league has flat revenue to last season??? No increase to the cap. And if you look at the increase from $39 million to $56 million, that is huge. What was the increase this year? 2% lower than the year before.
I hear what you are saying, your math is dead on. All I am saying is that I don't think the 12-14% increase year over year will continue. I don't think it can. If the increases over the next 5 years drop by even 1.5% each year(I mean from 12% to 10.5%, to 9% etc), it will put the cap in 5 years as about $85 million.
That (market wise) would make sense to me.
Just my thoughts. |
| 99pickles |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 20:04:44
You knew what the annual % increases were off the top of your head for each of the last 3 years? You knew the overall % increase so far? You must be some kind of savant because I had to use a calculator!!
Then why didn't you post them then???
Then you would have known that for the cap to be only $70M in 5 years, growth would have to slow to a crawl that is less than 1/3 of what it has been for each of the last 3 years, and it would have to maintain that crawl for 5 straight years.
I just don't think that profit growth is going to plummet to 3.75% annually or less, and you do.
Fair enough.
Chew on this crunchy tidbit: The avg annual increase - in % - over the last 3 years applied to the next 5 years would put the cap at: $105.78M
I heard today that if the union does opt to reopen the CBA next summer, it will only be to tinker with a few things - they will not change anything drastically...so they say at this time. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 17:24:10
Hey Vlasic (Pickles)
I know the numbers.
What I am saying is that the numbers will eventually catch up and plateau. I hope we can agree that when the CBA was signed it was when everyone (owners, players, and fans) just wanted hockey back. The $39 million was low.
However, I think the Cap is nearing where the market will cap. I think that in 5 years a salary cap of $70 million is reasonably accurate. That would mean the low guys are all going to be over a million (closer to 2) and the high guys are going to be around $12-$14. (I think the max is 20% to one player, can't remember)
But in the end, you are very correct that the CBA might be totally different and we might need all new and sophisticated math to figure all this out. |
| 99pickles |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 12:42:26
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
That is the way the cap works for all contracts. The team gets hit with the average over the length of the contract, not the actual price each year.
And I think Lecavalier is a top 2 player in the league. There is Iginla, Lecavalier, then a bunch of players that are very offensively gifted but can not do all the things that Lecavalier or Iginla can. Anything out of the top 5 is weak and ill informed in my opinion.
As far as the end of the contract and the "twilight" of his career.
I think that most players hit their prime in the ages between 28 and 35. (This makes Ovechkin and Crosby very scary thoughts) Currently, Lecavalier is 28. That means that 7 of the next 11 years are basically his prime (or should be). The last 4 years are a steal if he is still producing at the level of a Joe Sakic or Mark Messier later in their 30's.
And as a side note, I personally can't see the cap being $80-$90 million in the next 5 years. That is a 40% increase on today. Unless there is a large increase in arena sizes, far higher ticket prices, and merchandising out of control, that won't happen. The American economy is weak and appears to stay weak so there will be less money to spend on things like hockey. I can reasonably see a 20% increase, but 40% seems high to me.
beans....
Today the cap is $56.7M. If it were to increase to $80 M in 5 years from now, that's a difference of $23.3M....which is a 41% increase of today's cap.
Last year the cap was $50.3M and it increased to $56.7M. That's a 12.72% increase.
The year before it moved up from $44M to $50.3M. That's 14.31%.
And the year previous to that it increased 12.82% ($39M to $44M)
The overall increase in the 3 years from Year1 of the CBA to Year 4 of the CBA is $17.7M ($39M to $56.7M). This is a 45.3% increase in a mere 3 years (or 3 increases, from year 1-4).
Even if the annual increases drop alarmingly to only 8% per season, in 5 years that would result in a cap of $83.3M. If growth averages a reasonable 10-11% each year over the next 5 years, the cap would be $93.4M in 5 years, or increases, from now.
If growth were a healthy 12% per year, in 5 years the cap would be $99.9M !!
Wow!
Finally, based on your 20% increase suggestion: That would mean that in 5 years from now the cap will be $68.04M. That is an average increase of approximately 3.75% per year - a crawling pace compared to the recent annual increases of 12.82%, 14.31%, and 12.72%.
Keep in mind, Beans, I don't WANT the cap to skyrocket - I'm just looking at the numbers and seeing what they are telling me.
With very modest growth of 8% annually we will see a cap of $83.3M in 5 years from now. That is easily attainable, it would seem.
And thank you for re-mentioning cap hit versus contract terms. In my post previous to yours I thought I highlighted it enough by making my "Caveat" statement. Although it is a simple rule, nobody is ever thinking about it when they are posting about this contract or any other recent contract signings.
Again, One Caveat: Contract terms and CAP HIT are two entirely different things !!
All of this is based on the current CBA. When renegotiated, all this math is out the window |
| I´m also Cånädiön |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:33:56
Thanks for clarifying how the cap works Sensei Beans 
And I guess that makes me proudly ill-informed  |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 06:55:48
That is the way the cap works for all contracts. The team gets hit with the average over the length of the contract, not the actual price each year.
And I think Lecavalier is a top 2 player in the league. There is Iginla, Lecavalier, then a bunch of players that are very offensively gifted but can not do all the things that Lecavalier or Iginla can. Anything out of the top 5 is weak and ill informed in my opinion.
As far as the end of the contract and the "twilight" of his career.
I think that most players hit their prime in the ages between 28 and 35. (This makes Ovechkin and Crosby very scary thoughts) Currently, Lecavalier is 28. That means that 7 of the next 11 years are basically his prime (or should be). The last 4 years are a steal if he is still producing at the level of a Joe Sakic or Mark Messier later in their 30's.
And as a side note, I personally can't see the cap being $80-$90 million in the next 5 years. That is a 40% increase on today. Unless there is a large increase in arena sizes, far higher ticket prices, and merchandising out of control, that won't happen. The American economy is weak and appears to stay weak so there will be less money to spend on things like hockey. I can reasonably see a 20% increase, but 40% seems high to me. |
| I´m also Cånädiön |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 04:12:16
Interesting fact about the contract from NYTimes:
quote:
The front-loaded contract means that Lecavalier will be paid $4 million in 2017-18, $1.5 million in 2018-19 and $1 million in 2019-20, the last year of the deal. However, for cap purposes, the Lightning will be banged not for the actual amount each season, but for the average salary in each of the 11 years, which is $7.72 million.
http://slapshot.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/13/the-morning-skate-vinnys-loot-radulovs-thoughts-and-sundins-fire/
Thoughts? |
| 99pickles |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 03:23:19
Whether he's top 3 or top 5 or top 10 in the league is a matter of personal choice.
Now let's break down the contract...
$10M per year right now...seems like it is right in the ballpark, no? I think so.
In 5 years, when the cap is at $80M - $90M , he will be at only 9-13% of the team total. Not too bad at all...even though he will be just entering the twilight of his career at that point (in a worst case scenario!). Now, even if he lingers on for years 10 and 11, that will be a perfect "retirement goodbye" price. It's years 8 and 9 that trouble me.
Why? Because, if he is entering the twilight of his career in, say 5-7 years, he will be a little over priced at that time.
Years 10 and 11 are almost inconsequential. Those numbers will likely be a mere 1-2% of a team's payroll. That would be $567 K by todays numbers...almost meaningless.
One Caveat: salary structure of a contract, and CAP HIT, are two entirely different things !!! |
| I´m also Cånädiön |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 02:31:40
Does anyone know for how long his buddy St Louis contract runs? Would probably be a good idea to sign him to for a long contract too then.
Top 3 in the league? Top 10-15 maybe IMO.
I respect that he show commitment to one club for the rest of his career. 10 mil might seem like alot right now but the trend seem to be that the salarys keep getting higher and then we have inflation too. Hes set for life and its good for the family too if he decides to start one as they don´t have to move around.
Edit: Do you think Lecavaliers long time signing can have anything to do with the rise of the KHL?
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| Pasty7 |
Posted - 07/13/2008 : 16:56:33
today he is a top 3 player in the league,, he is big talented and has proven to not be overly injury prone,, knock on wood,, but still i would never have him locked up that long,, i would had signed him 8 years, and i don't see 10 mil as to much its the direction our markets headed, if danny brierre can swing 10mil then vinny is worth 20,,, the problem is i see him in 4 years dropping to a consistent 80 points then 5 to 6 droping to 70 ish,,, i would just have knocked off the end part of his contract,, even tough guys like vinny are not guranteed to last untill they're 40
Pasty |
| hockster |
Posted - 07/13/2008 : 15:58:51
he is a top 10 NHLer no doubt about it, the only question is he going to be playing that long, and thats the problem with these huge deals. I think it is a slight overpaying at 10 mil per year, but they have him locked up for good.
Prediction: Great until the last 3 years and he'll be like dave andrychuck and get sent to the minors and not forced, but would retire |
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