| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| fat_elvis_rocked |
Posted - 02/11/2009 : 15:11:04
I was surfing around and realized something interesting, there are no current players on the verge of statistical milestones regarding the 500 goal plateau and the 1000 assist plateau.
Who do you think will be the next 500 goal scorer and the next 1000 assist man?
I'm taking a flyer here and guessing that either Ovechkin or Kovalchuk get their 500 before Iginla, because Fedorov will retire just short of 500 and Iginla slows down, but still gets his, just after one of the Russian scoring machines.
I honestly cannot see anyone on the horizon who hits 1000 assists, with the exception of Jagr, IF, he comes back to the NHL and plays at a decent level.
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| 7 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| Pasty7 |
Posted - 02/12/2009 : 16:10:48
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
I disagree - I say Iginla gets his 500 goals first, he is having an off year (for him), and I see him back around the 40 goal range the next couple of seasons. He is still in his prime years.
Clearly, without injuries clouding the picture, Ovechkin (200 goals and on an incredible pace) and Kovalchuk (278) and Heatley (243) should get to 500 goals, only a matter of when . . .
To me, the real deal of goal scoring stats is 600 goals. Only 17 players have scored over 600,
Regular season goals
Wayne Gretzky, 894
Gordie Howe, 801
Brett Hull, 741
Marcel Dionne, 731
Phil Esposito, 717
Mike Gartner, 708
Mark Messier, 694
Steve Yzerman, 692
Mario Lemieux, 690
Luc Robitaille, 668
Brendan Shanahan, 650
Jaromir Jagr, 646
Dave Andreychuk, 640
Joe Sakic, 623
Bobby Hull, 610
Dino Ciccarelli, 608
Jari Kurri, 601
Currently Playing, with a shot at making 600:
Mats Sundin 555
Teemu Sellane 552
Modano 528 (but probably not)
Recchi 522 (it's a stretch)
Iginla 394 (31 yrs old, only needs another 6 solid seasons after this one)
Hossa 330 (30 yrs old, just one season behind Iginla, same thing)
I think Mats will do it potentially the year after next, although with the way he's been scoring of late, it's possible even next year.
And yes, I DO place much more importance on goals, rather than assists. After all, no one gets an assist until the goal is actually scored; and minus the tip ins and tap ins, it certainly deserves much more credit.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
wow i never realized how dominant Shanny is wow... i thought he was around the 550 mark max i was off by 100 what a great player
Pasty |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 02/12/2009 : 09:01:50
quote:
Originally posted by willus3
Don't forget Beans, Ovechkin is going to score over 92 goals next year. According to him anyway. 
"Society, have mercy on me. Hope you're not angry if I disagree." - Jerry Hannan
My man Willus.
You know my thoughts on WG so we not going there. However, if a guy is going to get 92, not only do I think Ovechkin has the skills, but I would also like to see it because of the player he is. His love of the game is infectious and he deserves what he gets because he works hard to get it.
I think I'll start the Ovie for 93 campaign today! |
| Guest4910 |
Posted - 02/12/2009 : 08:28:09
I also give more credits to goals most of the time. But 1000 assists is just an amazing plateau to reach. In a range of 15 seasons, a player would have to average 66 assists a season to reach 1000. And sometimes an assist should deserve more credit when the player does all the job and pass the puck for a teammate to score in an empty net. How much is worth a goal when the goalie is pulled out late in the game? Maybe with fantasy stats like "real nice assist" as opposed to "touched the puck assist" and "real nice goals" vs "push the puck in an empty net or goalie pulled out goal", we would see the true value of a point producer (players like Mikael Renberg, Glenn Murray, Jarri kurri, Ryan Malone, Alex Tanguay,...and many more who played with extremely gifted players). |
| Guest9164 |
Posted - 02/12/2009 : 08:20:12
I think Joe Thornton will have 1000 assists when he'll retire. He is 29 and has 561 assists already. His last 3 seasons have been his best stats-wise and he already has 45 this year and should end up with about 70 assists by the end of the year. So I think he should reach 1000 at 36-37, if he stays healthy. |
| n/a |
Posted - 02/12/2009 : 06:27:00
I disagree - I say Iginla gets his 500 goals first, he is having an off year (for him), and I see him back around the 40 goal range the next couple of seasons. He is still in his prime years.
Clearly, without injuries clouding the picture, Ovechkin (200 goals and on an incredible pace) and Kovalchuk (278) and Heatley (243) should get to 500 goals, only a matter of when . . .
To me, the real deal of goal scoring stats is 600 goals. Only 17 players have scored over 600,
Regular season goals
Wayne Gretzky, 894
Gordie Howe, 801
Brett Hull, 741
Marcel Dionne, 731
Phil Esposito, 717
Mike Gartner, 708
Mark Messier, 694
Steve Yzerman, 692
Mario Lemieux, 690
Luc Robitaille, 668
Brendan Shanahan, 650
Jaromir Jagr, 646
Dave Andreychuk, 640
Joe Sakic, 623
Bobby Hull, 610
Dino Ciccarelli, 608
Jari Kurri, 601
Currently Playing, with a shot at making 600:
Mats Sundin 555
Teemu Sellane 552
Modano 528 (but probably not)
Recchi 522 (it's a stretch)
Iginla 394 (31 yrs old, only needs another 6 solid seasons after this one)
Hossa 330 (30 yrs old, just one season behind Iginla, same thing)
I think Mats will do it potentially the year after next, although with the way he's been scoring of late, it's possible even next year.
And yes, I DO place much more importance on goals, rather than assists. After all, no one gets an assist until the goal is actually scored; and minus the tip ins and tap ins, it certainly deserves much more credit.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| willus3 |
Posted - 02/11/2009 : 17:47:02
Don't forget Beans, Ovechkin is going to score over 92 goals next year. According to him anyway.
"Society, have mercy on me. Hope you're not angry if I disagree." - Jerry Hannan |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 02/11/2009 : 16:56:58
I gotta agree with the 1000 assists guys. I think it will be more than a little while before we see the next one. The 2 closest currently NHL active players are Recchi and Modano. Based on their career averages, Recchi would hit in about 2.5 seasons while Modano would be closer to 5 seasons. However, they are both rounding out the twilight of their careers and I would suggest the time would be substatially longer than that.
The 500 goal mark I think is far more likely Fedorov is only 23 away. He is only 2 years removed from an 18 goal season. I would think IF he plays another year(and a full healthy year) he will reach 500. Roberts is the next closest but with 60+ to hit the mark, I think that is a stretch.
Iginla?? Ya, he will get there. Iginla has averaged 40+ goals a season in the past 4 years. He is off that pace this year (should hit 30+) but he still has the skills. Plus, he is only 31. He has 5 good years left in him at least (if healthy). All he has to do is average 30 a year over the next 3 1/2 seasons to hit 500. I don't doubt that happen.
And Ovechkin should hit is sometime as well, but not before Iginla. Ovechkin has 200 goals in 297 career games (.67 GPG). At that pace, he will be around 400 goals in the 3.5 years it would take Iginla to reach 500 (if my 30 goals a season for Iginla holds true).
For Ovechkin to catch Iginla and hit 500 first, he would have to a GPG of 1.05. That's 3 straight seasons of more than 80 goals and another 1/2 season of 40 goals.
I think that's a stretch.
Fedorov will hit 500 if he plays next year. He will find a way. Next will be Iginla. After that,who knows. Kovalchuk might, Heatley might. Naslund is pretty high on the list as well. Another 3-4 reasonable seasons out of him and he will hit 500. Maybe Alfredsson, maybe Hossa. Both are within range. Not sure. If Ovechkin keeps up his torrid pace to this point in his career, he will hit 500 in about 5.5 years.
It's interesting that you hear on this site from time to time about people thinking assists are sometimes "garbage" and 2nd assists should not be counted. However, there are only 11 players in the history of the game to get 1000 assists, yet there are 41 players with 500 or more goals. We've already listed around 8 other players on pace to hit 500 goals.
I dunno, I am thinking a 1000 assists career might be more impressive than a 500 goal career.
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