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Posted - 08/29/2006 : 08:08:03
NHL Team Offense – What’s Ahead
By Darryl Dobbs
The final standings from last season in the NHL – specifically the goals-for statistic – will look quite different by next April. Detroit certainly will not retain it’s lofty No.2 spot of last year. The (not replaced as of yet) loss of Brendan Shanahan simply won’t allow for it.
In looking over NHL rosters, as well as my player predictions within, some interesting teams have jumped up into the Top 10 in offense, and it is equally interesting looking at some of the teams who have fallen.
Last season, the Ottawa Senators scored more goals than any other team with 314. St. Louis had the least goals for with 197. The difference between the fourth-highest scoring team (Colorado with 283) and the 26th team (Islanders and Bruins tied with 230) is just 53 goals. So it does not take a lot to move up or down the ladder.
While it is likely that Detroit will sign another winger (one of Anson Carter or J.P. Dumont), until they do so, they will be without the 30 goals that wingers such as they would bring. Detroit offense will stumble, and I have them at 24th for this year. Adding Dumont or Carter will move them up to seventh. As you can see – one player would give any team a big jump in a chart that is this tight.
The Senators slip to number two. They did lose Martin Havlat, but he didn’t give them many of their goals last season anyway.
The most potent offense for the coming year will be the team that finished tenth last season – Nashville. Putting Jason Arnott and blue-chipper Alexander Radulov into a lineup that was already tenth in scoring makes this team the best bet for offense in the NHL. From a fantasy hockey perspective – if you want to take a chance on a depth player, pick a Predator. The trickle-down effect will ensure that even the third liners see a boost in the numbers.
Pittsburgh and Carolina will be tied for third. The Hurricanes finished third last season, and the loss of Cory Stillman to injury will only hurt them for the first 15 games. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, finished 19th in team offense, 60 goals out of third. So where will their goals come from? Evgeni Malkin will give them at least 30 (and will set up a bunch more in the process). Nils Ekman will add 20 more, and Colby Armstrong will chip in his share for an entire season as opposed to just 47 games.
Boston and Buffalo will be tied for fifth. Buffalo is certainly no shocker, but Boston? To move up 20 spots, the Bruins will need about 50 more goals. Rookie Phil Kessel, free agent signees Marc Savard and Zdeno Chara, European transfer Petr Tenkrat, and a reinvigorated Glen Murray should combine to cover that.
Despite upgrading their forwards and injecting at least 30 goals in their lineup, the St.Louis Blues will remain in last place for another year. They were so far behind last year that 30 goals just pulls them close to the rest of the pack. The acquisition of Bill Guerin, and with Magnus Kahnberg joining the squad, there will be more goals scored this year, no question, but who will they catch? Last year’s 29th place club was Chicago, who added Martin Havlat and rookie Tony Salmaleinen to the mix. Calgary was 28th last year, but have added Alex Tanguay. An improving and healthy Columbus team will also be tough to catch. No, the best option for St. Louis will actually be the New York Islanders or possibly Tampa Bay. The latter will be without 30-goal man Fredrik Modin, while the former will actually have the same amount of goals – it is just that in a league where everyone around them added, they fall in the list.
To see the entire team offense projection list, visit www.dobberhockey.com. And if you haven’t yet picked up Dobber’s Pool Guide – what are you waiting for?
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