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Posted - 01/28/2010 : 17:52:17
What started as an innocent email from a reader has grown into a full-blown debate. In a keeper league that counted only points, who would you rather own? Jason Spezza of the Ottawa Senators or Jonathan Toews of the Chicago Blackhawks. It is my position that Spezza is the better player to own, but that is clearly the opinion of the minority, given the overwhelming response.
One of the dissenters was McKeen’s contributor and old friend of DobberHockey Gus Katsaros. He suggested creating a piece on the subject, giving our different viewpoints. I thought it was a good idea, and so without further ado – Spezza vs. Toews…
Katsaros: Jonathan Toews
Take the natural goal scorer over playmakers; simple as that.
Without bona fide snipers, playmakers suffer dips in overall numbers and rely heavier on offense by committee. Playmakers don’t make elite goal scorers – someone has to put the puck in the net – they do however have the ability to make a 15-goal scorer surpass the 20 mark, a small consolation.
Look no further than Dany Heatley (53-30-26-56) and struggles of former linemate Jason Spezza (31-6-14-20), while his new playmaker pivot, Joe Thornton (53-13-54-67) is rejuvenated enough to top the 100 point plateau (and named to the Canadian Olympic team) once again after a steady decline over three season (coincidentally following the decline of Jonathan Cheechoo and his scoring prowess from a 56-goal campaign in 2005-06).
Playmakers need goal scorers to succeed with elite numbers; they don’t improve on elite scorer’s ability and point totals.
Chicago Blackhawks pivot, Jonathan Toews, while not considered a bona fide sniper, translates quick hands, elite stick handling and a decent shot into potential 30-goal seasons, while surrounded by a cast of gifted shooters, almost three lines deep.
The end results are a supplement to assist totals, giving him a 70-80 point potential most seasons, at the tender age of 21, he still has a little more upside if he continues to drive the net, while bringing the same work ethic game-in/game-out. There are peripheral characteristics in winning one-on-one battles and retrieving pucks from corners that is superior to that of Spezza’s ethic, a clear indication his helpers are accredited to his work, rather than playmaking ability and being surrounded by the likes of snipers in Marian Hossa, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp and lesser lights like Kris Versteeg and the injured Dave Bolland (he’s a center, too, though so time is limited to PP.)
Despite the lack of production from Spezza in an injury-plagued 2009-10, not having Heatley riding shotgun is having an effect. The Ottawa pivot has to redefine himself, and prove his worth than just a puck caddy to a sniper. Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Michalek and Alex Kovalev exhibit individual puck skills that don’t mirror the scoring ability of a natural sniper and in turn bring down his assist totals.
While he does have a 30-goal potential each season, the lack of an elite sniper reduces his totals to a similar potential to that of Toews in the 70-80 point range. In the past three seasons, Spezza’s shot totals have gone from 162 to 210 to 246 last season. He’s shooting more, and seemingly using less playmaking ability .. a direct hit to his helpers totals.
In the end, from a pure points standpoint, either player is a decent enough choice in a similar points range. The guiding difference may be in other categories such as plus/minus, PIM’s and shots-on-goal that determines which player contains higher value in individual leagues.
But goals are hard to come by in reality, and that make Toews a natural choice over Spezza in fantasy.
Dobber: Jason Spezza
A common trap that poolies fall into is the “what have you done for me lately” one. That’s the same trap that caused us to underrate Brad Richards last summer and is causing us to overrate Henrik Sedin (for his production) and Marian Gaborik (for his durability) today. What we see is Jonathan Toews on pace for 69 points one year after finishing with the same number. We see a 21-year-old on a powerhouse team that pushes offense. We also see Jason Spezza on pace for 38 points one year after finishing with 73. We see a 26-year-old on an overachieving (your words, not mine) team that stresses two-way play over the run-and-gun.
Don’t fall into this trap.
I’ll tackle the main arguments one by one.
Toews is on the way up, whereas Spezza has peaked.
This was an actual point brought up to me by a reader. Again I am reminded of “what have you done for me lately”. It’s not often that a player reaches 92 points at the age of 24 and then never gets close to that number again. In fact, has it ever happened? Well, Brad Richards had 91 points at the age of 25 and hasn’t been back there since, but – wait a minute – he’s looking like a lock to get there this year. I guess you could use Eric Staal as an example – but do we really believe he won’t get back up there at some point? A player’s peak years are between the ages of 26 to 32, so while Toews is indeed on the way up – so is Spezza. He’s learning to play a more complete game, much like Vincent Lecavalier did the year before exploding for his career high.
Spezza gets injured a lot.
So does Toews. While Spezza averages just over 10 games missed per season, Toews averages eight.
Spezza loses Heatley, while Toews plays with three lines of awesomeness in Chicago
I’m not interested in linemates here. When it comes to players of elite caliber, as these two are, then the linemates won’t make more of a difference than five or maybe 10 points. When they’re already up around 70 or 80 points or more, another five is a pretty small amount percentage-wise. So what are these players capable of without considering linemates? That is to say – what can they do on their own?
Toews has always been billed as an elite all-around center. A guy who can put up big points, but was also very responsible defensively and a natural leader. His work ethic is impeccable. Players like that rarely get to 90 points, and that’s what we’re discussing here. Henrik Zetterberg is an example of a player who fits that description – but Toews hardly has the razzle-dazzle of a Zetterberg. I cap him at 90 points and as he hits his stride he should be a lock for 70.
Spezza has always been billed as Mr. Offense. He wasn’t drafted to be a future captain. He wasn’t drafted for his penalty-killing acumen. He was drafted because he is an offensive force. Players like that do not get capped at 90 points. In fact, he’s already topped 90 points. So while he’ll put up some stinkers, such as this year – he’ll also have some monster campaigns. As a fantasy owner, I’ll suffer through one out of every three years of 60 or 65 points just to get that occasional 90 or 95. And I’ll have visions of a 110-point career year, too. That’s where I cap him. Maybe it’s just my gut talking, but if you say to someone that Jason Spezza will get 110 points one season, you may not get laughed at. However, if you say to someone that Jonathan Toews will get 110 points one year, the laughter won’t stop.
I had the same upside penciled in for Spezza before Heatley as I did during Heatley and now after Heatley. A star linemate certainly helps, no question, but Spezza can get there on his own. Remember that Joe Thornton went to a San Jose team with no big guns on it, and his arrival actually created a big gun in Jonathan Cheechoo. Spezza has that same ability. He could step onto the ice with a bunch of clowns and if one of them was the right fit, then ‘boom’ you have yourself a Rocket Richard winner. Toews can’t do that.
So while Toews is the better “real” option, Spezza is the better “fantasy” one. Simply for the potential. Players with Toews’ offense are a dime a dozen. Nice and steady, but limited – just like 40 other NHL players. Spezza, while a bit of a wildcard, has the upside that can win a fantasy league – just like…maybe seven or eight other players.
Gus Katsaros is a scout & fantasy expert for McKeen's Hockey Prospects www.mckeenshockey.rivals.com .. and regular contributor to Maple Leafs Hot Stove: http://mapleleafshotstove.com and Fadoo Hockey http://fadoohockey.com
http://www.dobberhockey.com/
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| 2 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| JOSHUACANADA |
Posted - 01/29/2010 : 10:29:35
Historically I pick the playmaker over the Sniper unless your pool is slanted to advantage the goal scorer. I dont see one player more durable than another. Both have had the injury bug, its just Spezza latest injury was a long term one and fresh on most fans minds. I actually think a sniper is more reliant on the playmaker than the playmaker is reliant on the sniper. For Instance what would Heatley be like if he didn't play with elite playmakers like Spezza and Thorton.
Im gonna start with Toews. I neither agree with the first opinion that Toews is the sniper of the group or that either Spezza or Toews has peaked. I would even say that with Toew's current supporting team, which is and has been for a few years, offense driven, this year may be his best potential. If this years Chicago team can't elevate his stats next years team which, will likely be more watered down wont help to elevate them. If Toews can find the chemistry that Spezza had with with Alfredson and Heatley, which he may, I suspect he could come close to equaling prior Spezza stats at 90ish in the next few years.
I have always thought of Spezza as a pass first player and a defensive liability. This is largely a perception based on his 1st few seasons while he was developing. Under Clouston he has been encourages to shoot more and be more responsible defensively, and if you have watch him for the last 80 or so games his defensive game has greatly improved. He has also rotated throughout the lineup last year, and this year early which affected his stats. He has recently found chemistry, again, with Kovalev and Alfredson. I would even venture to say he found chemistry with Michalek and Foligno. The fact he is on a 3 game goal streak shows he is more than willing to spearhead an offensive play. Another reason his stats took a hit at the begining of the year, it was well known he was playing injured for the first 20 games and when shoulder took the last shot finally forced him to take injury time to properly heal. I figure Spezza point potential could peak above 100 points in the next few years.
I dont see this as clearly Spezza, but would choose Spezza 1st on my team. |
| n/a |
Posted - 01/29/2010 : 07:02:50
Maybe it's a case of agreeing with an opinion I already had, but you sold me:
I choose Spezza as well.
A couple more things in Spezza's favour:
I thought it was funny that Katsaros would use an argument like taking natural goal scorers over playmakers, for two reasons . . . one, I don't believe Toews is a pure goal scorer, and two, I believe that a true playmaker has a longer more productive career with less decline. I contend that Toews is an "all around" player myself, a player like a Sundin who can create and dish off, but who can also put the puck in the net pretty consistently. Will Toews ever have a 100 point season with 45ish goals like Sundin had? No, the 90's are long gone, my friends.
Toews, so far in his young career, has topped out at 34 goals . . . coincidentally the same number as Spezza. One might argue that he is only in his third year, and that it's only around this time that a player starts to go into full bloom. That coupled with Toews injuries makes a few people dream of some magical upward climb . . . but looking at the numbers, there is no magic to be found there. Toews is back and healthy now, he plays with as good and talented linemates as he will probably ever have, and his goals per game average is . . . well, good, but nothing special. In fact, it's at about the same level as Kane, except that Kane came on the scene looking like a sniper . . . and yet, Kane has more assists by far, career and per game.
So, to compare Toews to true snipers like Heatley is a false argument . . . as Toews has much more in common with the "all around player. Does the all-around player often have a long and productive career? Yes. Is it consistent? Yes, often. Does it often mean point totals over 85? Hardly ever, and not likely at all in this era.
The other end of that false argument is saying that Spezza was a playmaker . . . which I contend is a twisted argument. He is a BETTER playmaker than Toews is now and probably ever will be, yes: but he is also at the exact same goal scoring level, right now.
No, Spezza has not had a good year so far, but he is picking it up now that he is back and healthy. He has proven he can get over 30 goals and over 40 assists consistently on a middling team . . . with the potential for 90 point seasons with great linemates and chemistry. Toews has shown so far that he can be a 30 goal, 30 assist man with great linemates in their prime on a great team. The POTENTIAL is there for an 80 point season, but for a player who after 3 seasons (when this one is done) will top out at 69 . . . don't hang your hat on potential. That hook has been the downfall of many a poolie!
Also, Katsaros uses another false argument, saying that Spezza has "30 goal POTENTIAL every year".
06/07 - 34 goals ,53a
07/08 - 34 goals, 58a
08/09 - 32 goals, 41a
This year: 33gp, 8 goals, 14 a.
So, correction: Spezza has CONSISTENTLY SHOWN that he can pot over 30 goals in a full season, and that HE CAN dish off over 40, even 50 assists.
If Spezza is back and healthy, I contend that he might get to 25 goals this year playing around 60 games. He may only get 45-55 points this year, yeah . . . but this is a guy who gets over 70 points guaranteed most years, with the potential of 90+.
And what has Toews DONE?
07/08 (64gp) - 24g, 30a
08/09 - 34g, 35a
09/10 (48gp) 18g, 26a
So, without taking out the calculator, Toews is on pace for about . . . 27 goals, 39 assists, 66 points. Yawn! AND, that's if he plays every game for the rest of the season . . . having injuries two out of the three years in the NHL is not a good sign, and should instead be a warning for poolies to tread cautiously, especially when the player doesn't have much of a history to go on.
I take Spezza easily over Toews.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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