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 Foolish Early Season Predictions, Projections

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T O P I C    R E V I E W
n/a Posted - 03/31/2010 : 08:10:37
Here is the place to point out the early season bullcrap that others may have spouted early. Maybe it was someone going on and on about how this was going to be someone's breakout season, or about where a certain team would finish. Maybe it was about a certain player with a hot start who someone claimed would get over 90 points.

Whatever the case, it's time to trash talk who made what blunder! Please include the quote if you can, and supply any statistical evidence alongside, then it'll make your point much more valid.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
21   L A T E S T    R E P L I E S    (Newest First)
nuxfan Posted - 03/31/2010 : 19:10:30
quote:
Detroit Sucks?? When did this happen?? 40+ wins for the bazzillionth season in a row. 30ish years in a row in the playoffs.


fair enough, I should have qualified that, everything is relative. I had initially picked DET to be first or second in the western conference this year. So relative to that lofty expectation, they have been a dissapointment. They have had an injury plagued season, almost as bad as Edmonton.

quote:
Even with their franchise starting to fill seats (finally!), they are losing millions and will continue to do so unless they become the top NHL team for the next 3-5 years, straight.


They not only have to be a top team, but have to continue to be one just to get close to break even - and it won't happen. I remember reading something about the NJD a while back (might have been around 2001/02, right in the middle of their power years), that they had to reach the finals each year just to BREAK EVEN for revenue. Hows that for pressure on ownership? Imagine a Canadian-based team of that calibre, they would practially be printing money in their local market.
irvine Posted - 03/31/2010 : 18:29:45
I agree with Porkchop here, greatly.

Even with their franchise starting to fill seats (finally!), they are losing millions and will continue to do so unless they become the top NHL team for the next 3-5 years, straight.

They do not sell enough of anything, including merchandise and tickets. I don't imagine they get a lot of Corporate Sponsorship for their product, thus losing even more.

This team is not going to be a profitable success, and I don't blame any one for not wanting to buy this team unless they have the rights to do as they see fit. Including, moving the team to where they choose. It's their money... and I for one, would not buy a team that I know is going to lose more of my money, not gain any. As cool as owning an NHL team would be, or not.

The Coyotes, have a lot of work to do before they are a 'success'. Selling out two consecutive games is hardly even a start. Sorry.

Irvine/prez.
Porkchop73 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 17:54:36
quote:
Originally posted by leigh

quote:
Originally posted by Porkchop73

Hey fellas,
....I was misguided on was the who Balsille/Coyotes thing. I thought Balsille had Bettman cornered. However I was right in the fact that even a winning team can not succeed in Pheonix. They only now just sold out back to back games and it is being said that NHL will likely have to move them.....


Hey Porkchop, a winning team can succeed in Phoenix*. Word of mouth and interest takes a bit of time to build propagate, especially after being burned for such a long time. Perhaps they are just now starting to reap the rewards of a great season. If they have a great playoffs it can roll into the next season. The American public loves a winner, but the problem is if they start losing again they will be dropped like a hot potato - attention spans are short, especially for hockey in the states. So the only way it will work is if they continue to win. Question is, can a team win forever? No, unless you're Detroit (do those guys ever suck?)


Success does take time, but they have one of the most dynamic and fun to watch team on the ice this season. The team still will not turn a profit but infact have a 13th consecutive season posting a loss in the millions. For that reason they are not a success.
Side note: Little over a month ago I attended a game in Glendale. Fabulous venue, excellent team to watch, but the people in Pheonix and surrounding areas do not care for NHL and asking many, they prefer the highschool ball game before going to an NHL game. I sat there during the game listening to countless people not have an iota of clue as to what was happening on the ice. A goal they cheer and a fight they cheer. Nothing else matters. 13 years later, the NHL has still not sold the game to that market, people have no idea how the game is played. For that reason also, they are not a success.
I also want to add that I had posted this point during the Coyotes for sale topic and have definite first hand experience to say I was right.
leigh Posted - 03/31/2010 : 16:27:10
quote:
Originally posted by Porkchop73

Hey fellas,
....I was misguided on was the who Balsille/Coyotes thing. I thought Balsille had Bettman cornered. However I was right in the fact that even a winning team can not succeed in Pheonix. They only now just sold out back to back games and it is being said that NHL will likely have to move them.....


Hey Porkchop, a winning team can succeed in Phoenix*. Word of mouth and interest takes a bit of time to build propagate, especially after being burned for such a long time. Perhaps they are just now starting to reap the rewards of a great season. If they have a great playoffs it can roll into the next season. The American public loves a winner, but the problem is if they start losing again they will be dropped like a hot potato - attention spans are short, especially for hockey in the states. So the only way it will work is if they continue to win. Question is, can a team win forever? No, unless you're Detroit (do those guys ever suck?)
Porkchop73 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 16:12:22
Hey fellas,
I was wrong on many, many things. Probably the biggest thing I was misguided on was the who Balsille/Coyotes thing. I thought Balsille had Bettman cornered. However I was right in the fact that even a winning team can not succeed in Pheonix. They only now just sold out back to back games and it is being said that NHL will likely have to move them. I hate to admit it but Beans had it right from the get go on this. Does Bettman get his name of the cup if the Coyotes win it this year?

Something I was dead on about was Phil Kessel getting 30 goals and scoring at the same pace as last season. Plenty claimed he could not do it without Savard or another elite set up man. He actually is on a scoring pace of 38 goals had he been able to play at the start of the season.

I am pretty sure I was more wrong then right with most of my posts, but hey I had some fun with it.
Nucks07 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 15:58:53
Things I was off on- Phoenix, Colorado (doing so good)
-Rangers,Flyers,Flames (doing so bad) all 3 might not make the playoffs
- Russia at the olympics
- For my hockeypool I guess my worst picks were Spezza and Ribeiro but I got a big lead since I have Henrick and Ovechkin
Nucks07 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 15:48:46
Ya detriot dosent suck thats for sure, they had alot of injuries but I disagree with your first round matchup beans..Detroit is 1 point back of nashville with 2 games in-hand, so I think its a Phoneix/Detroit first round matchup. But i do agree that Detroit will do some damage in the playoffs, Im really hoping its not a Detroit/Vancouver first round matchup.
Beans15 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 15:33:12
Detroit Sucks?? When did this happen?? 40+ wins for the bazzillionth season in a row. 30ish years in a row in the playoffs.

Detroit doesn't suck. They were injured. Wait to see the trail of dead the leave in their wake through the playoffs. First Vancouver, then Chicago, then San Jose. Time for another Pitt vs Det final!!
nuxfan Posted - 03/31/2010 : 14:47:54
This was a year for being off, so many surprises:

Teams: I was off for about half of them .
- teams I thought would suck that didn't - LA, PHX, OTT, BUF, COL
- teams that I thought would rock that didn't - NYR, MTL, DAL, ANA, BOS, DET

the rest I was more or less accurate. I thought EDM would suck, no one could have predicted an injury-plagued last place finish.

Players: hockey pools are a great place to put your money where your mouth is, and I was mostly successful. Some good moves for me this year:
- Gaborik - figured if he was healthy he'd be a goal machine, and he has been
- Kopitar - everyone wondered if he could continue with little chance of LA succeeding - little did they know that HE'D be the difference maker all year.
- Marleau - he was written off by a lot of people this year, after another SJ collapse last year, but he's a regular season scoring machine.
- Brad Richards - was left undrafted in all my yahoo pools, I got him from the FA pool after the first week in every one of them.
- Ryan Miller - nuf said

Some bad moves:
- Niklas Kronwall - I expected more from the DET heir apparent
- Paul Kariya - thought that STL would have a pretty good year this year, and that he'd get a resurgence. No luck.
- Brad Boyes - dissapointment
- Lucic - injury plagued season, pretty much mirrors Boston as a team
- Lecavalier - pretty much dissapointed in every way
- Jokinen - in a contract year, I'm surprised.
Leafs81 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 14:22:28
I was way off with Calgary

First of I thought Sutter was gonna wake Phaneuf up, and the addition of Bouwmeester would also help the team all around. I also thought a full year of having Jokinen and Iginla together would help the powerplay. Plus with Phaneuf and Bouwmeester on the point I thought they were to have one of the best pp in the league, and be a cup contender. At least Kipper had a solid season.

I was also way off with Buffalo

I honnestly thought they were the worst team in the northeast division, So yeah no need to explain.

I was also way off with Phoenix and Colorado, but who wasn't...
Guest2000 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 13:08:52
After 30 games into the year i made my buddy 100$ bet that neither Kopitar or Gaborik would finish in the top 5 and at that time they were 1 & 2 in the league. He was smart and said Gaborik had to make it to 70 games for the bet to be valid and thankfully he made it there last night. I was also right about Tim Thomas i thought last year was a flash in the pan and he reassured me oh that this year.

Enough with the gloating cuz i've been terribly wrong this year as well. I was convinced Oveckin was goin to get injured this year and miss half the season so i took Backstrom instead it panned out but i thought Oveckin's reckless play would catch up with. Guess i'll have to save that prediction for another season. Also I had Datsuyk to win the scoring race and was way off on that and thought the Habs were finally goin to bottom out but again they manage to nibble at the bottom and make the playoffs. Thank god there gone in the first round.

Early prediction for next year the leafs and oilers both make the playoffs if they can stay healthy. You can tell me i'm wrong a year from now.

Have a good one
HawkinOilCountry Posted - 03/31/2010 : 11:39:35
4 Teams I was WAY off on, and I bet a LOT of other people were too:

Colorado
Phoenix
LA
Calgary

Needless to say I had a completly different final 8 in the west in my mind at the start of the season. I had Calgary winning the North West division this year and had the other 3 teams completly out of the playoffs!




The arena wall in chicago should be credited with a goal.
Alex116 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 11:29:03
quote:
Originally posted by Matt_Roberts85

One thing I was right about, Burke defeated Gainey ;)




Oh no, are you trying to wake 7752? You may as well have phoned him. I swear, he's got some alarm on his computer whereby it rings anytime Gainey and Burke are typed in the same sentence!
Matt_Roberts85 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 11:01:24
I was right about Gaborik tearing it up this year, and horribley wrong about how the leafs would end up finishing, and probably will be again next year haha. I was right about Toskala though, f*** does he suck.

One thing I was right about, Burke defeated Gainey ;)
Bob couldnt handle going up against Burke and had to give it up and hand it over to someone else. He knows toronto will be good very soon and didnt want to be embarassed when the time comes ^_^

(im being fecisious, or however you spell it)

There is no "I" in team, but there is an "M" and an "E".
polishexpress Posted - 03/31/2010 : 10:43:42
You can't blame Oiler fans for thinking they may make the playoffs at the beginning of the year, just as you couldn't blame leaf fans(before the season started) for hoping they would make the playoffs.
Beans15 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 10:23:56
Things I was way off on:

Edmonton making the playoffs, NYR, Penner, Pronger at the Olympics, Russia at the Olympics,


Things I hit dead on, Huet, Calgary(not having offensive to complete), Ottawa. Kessler

I'm sure the list is significantly longer for what I was off on.
n/a Posted - 03/31/2010 : 10:11:39
I most definitely was one of those that said "lay off Gaborik" for your pools . . . and what can you say about a career year other than I didn't see that coming?

I am glad you can take it in stride and not as a personal attack - all in fun, and it's an interesting look at why many of us were wrong on quite a few things in an overall very, very surprising year.

Things off the top of my head I was way off on:
1) Boston
I predicted them top of their division and even made fun of people putting other teams like Ottawa and Buffalo ahead of them. sigh

2) Gaborik
As mentioned, I not only predicted a half year for him, but I also claimed that he would never break 90 points. Well, this isn't that bad, actually . . . he'll end up with over 70 games and over 80 points, but is unlikely to break 90. Still, I really thought he would cool off in NY and that just wasn't the case.

3) Toronto a playoff contender
I really don't think this was my bias working, I honestly think that when one looked at the pre season 'revamped' defence, that any sane hockey mind would have thought that this year's D would be a big improvement. And yet somehow, they were (in the first half) worse. Things are looking up big time now, but TO was a huge first half flop which I really didn't predict.

4) Crosby getting 50 (or close to it, at least)
Put this under "most of us were wrong". Who knew the kid had it in him? Not many, and efinitely not me . . . I will never underestimate him again, though - the kid has more determination than almost anyone in the league, and is a gift to the game of hockey. If he isn't this generation's Steve Yzerman, I don't know who is.

5) Doughty's play on the Olympic team
What can I say - the kid really surprised and impressed, and he ended up being probably the best defenceman on our team all-around. Great pick by Yzerman if giving credit where credit is due.

That's enough, and all I can think of for now . . . the only one I am really ashamed of is the Boston pick, as I was pretty adamant about them blowing away the rest of the division, and I couldn't have been more wrong.

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
Guest8605 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 10:02:28
This has nothing to do with anyone posting but my favorite prediction/opinion was MacT on TSN saying he thought Horcoff should be on the olympic team. WTF!! Is he a triple digit minus yet?
HawkinOilCountry Posted - 03/31/2010 : 09:58:55
I don't have a pick from here but one of the guys in my pool was spouting how Dustin Byfuglien was going to have a break out year and might play himself up to Chicago's first line...

Another guy in my pool saw Matt Carle get 10 points early in the season and dropped Lidstrom for him....

Heard a LOT about Dustin Penner (I live/work in edmonton so... duh), how he was gonna light it up all year and stay in the top of the scoring race.... yea about that....

Another thing I heard a lot about early on is these Mason guys. Steve Mason probably wasn't a foolish prediction early on, I doubt a lot of people saw Columbus sitting in the basement this year. Chris Mason had me sold though. I took him in my draft thinking St. Louis is gonna ROCK this year.... Thank god Anderson was un-drafted

The arena wall in chicago should be credited with a goal.
Beans15 Posted - 03/31/2010 : 08:57:28
Ah but Slozo, you are clearly missing the point of Penner missing not only his only set up man on the team for 60 games, but also the rest of his team as the Oilers again have the highest man games lost due to injury in the NHL.

But ya, I will take the heat on Penner. The guy gave up and did not keep the pace he started with. Lumps duely accepted.

Granted, I find it interesting that in the same breath I was wrong about Penner, who was dead right about Carter. Where are the props for that??


Hey Slozo, I don't have time to look into it right now, but were you one of the posse that said Gaborik would cool and be injured for most of the season and that no way he would be near the league leaders in points?? Not accusing at all, just asking..
n/a Posted - 03/31/2010 : 08:24:32
I'll start off:

From Beans -
quote:
And so what if Carter had 46 goals last year? What pace is he on this year?? 35. Which is respectable. But I like Penner's pace of 49 better. I also like Penners +10 on a below average team compared to Carters +2 on a far superior defensive team.


Dustin Penner
Goals 27 Assists 28 Points 55 +/- 6 *6 games to go
(on admittedly the worst team in the NHL this year)

Jeff Carter
Goals 33 Assists 27 Points 60 +/- 3 *in 72 games, and looks like that will be it for the regular season
(on admittedly not the best defensive team, but still much better than the Oil of course)

In other threads, it was even mentioned that Penner would get over 80 or 90 points if he kept up that pace . . . which I thought was a ludicrous projection to make for a player like him, and I mentioned that he may not even make 30. And we went back and forth about Penner and Carter in the team Canada threads, debating a formerly lazy player with a hot start to a hard working talent with a slow start.

I am not always right, and I am sure others could dig up many bad predictions by myself here . . . so I might as well gloat about the good ones

"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug

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