| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| leigh |
Posted - 07/31/2007 : 10:43:59
Wow! since the Flyers Bobby Clarke put that offer sheet on Ryan Kesler in Sept of 06 this practice is becoming quite popular. Prior to that it hadn't been done since 1998!
Edmonton's Kevin Lowe just put an offer out to Dustin Penner from Anaheim.
Read more:
http://www.pickuphockey.com/hockeynews.aspx?article=7008063100
and another:
http://www.pickuphockey.com/hockeynews.aspx?article=7008029738 |
| 25 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| leafsfan_101 |
Posted - 08/03/2007 : 18:17:59
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
1) Penner will be playing with Hemsky and more than likely Horcoff. Horcoff is a seasoned centre, albiet not a #1 centre on most teams. He had a bad year with 50 pts, like all the Oilers did last year, but the year before he 22-51-73. I guess that doesn't count as a capable line mate?? Last year Horcoff and Hemsky had the same amount of points as Perry and Getzlef in fewer games. The year before last (as we all know Edmonton tanked last year) Horcoff and Hemsky had 40 goals-107 assists for 147 points. That's a pretty solid tandem on most if not all teams in the league. I can't see how you can say that Penner will not have solid linemates.
2) 20 minutes a game over 82 games is the same as playing 117 games at 14 minutes/game. Statistically (and I know it's a poor measure) he played 1148 minutes last year, meaning he scored a goal every 39 minutes. If he goes up to 20 minutes a game at the same pace, that's 42 goals a year.
3) I think you are also not giving credit to the potential powerplay. I would tend to think his increase in minutes will be largely attributed to the #1 PP unit. Souray is a PP specialist, Pitkanen is no slouch either. Add in Hemsky, perhaps Stoll/Horcoff, and if Robbie Shremp makes the team he's a PP specialist also. How can Penner not improve in that environment? With the Ducks, he was getting 2nd PP line time.
4) I really don't think it is that far fetched to think that Penner could get 20-25 even strength goals and another 10-15 on the PP.
But I don't totally disagree with you either. He may crack under the added pressure. He may be restricted by MacT's defensive system. Who knows. All I am saying is that there is a potential for this to be a great hockey move. I would not be surprised to see Penner as a 60+ point guys next year, and 75+ for his next 4 years. If that happens(and I said if) is the $4.25 million/year an overpayment??
Hockey contracts are not all what the player has done, they also involved what a player has a potential to do.
I Love your Kids, IHC is the man, and The Oilers Rule. Does that make me insane??
Beans I have to pat you on the back here. If one post could convince me why Penner got the deal he did it was this one. Remember that Penner played in Anaheim last year, where noone knew his name. It a whole diffrent enviroment in Oil Country. But still, that post of yours was pure gold.
Second place is only first place of the losers. |
| admin |
Posted - 08/03/2007 : 17:43:23
Here is an article from today on this topic...
http://www.pickuphockey.com/hockeynews.aspx?article=7008099656 |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 08/03/2007 : 12:34:24
1) Penner will be playing with Hemsky and more than likely Horcoff. Horcoff is a seasoned centre, albiet not a #1 centre on most teams. He had a bad year with 50 pts, like all the Oilers did last year, but the year before he 22-51-73. I guess that doesn't count as a capable line mate?? Last year Horcoff and Hemsky had the same amount of points as Perry and Getzlef in fewer games. The year before last (as we all know Edmonton tanked last year) Horcoff and Hemsky had 40 goals-107 assists for 147 points. That's a pretty solid tandem on most if not all teams in the league. I can't see how you can say that Penner will not have solid linemates.
2) 20 minutes a game over 82 games is the same as playing 117 games at 14 minutes/game. Statistically (and I know it's a poor measure) he played 1148 minutes last year, meaning he scored a goal every 39 minutes. If he goes up to 20 minutes a game at the same pace, that's 42 goals a year.
3) I think you are also not giving credit to the potential powerplay. I would tend to think his increase in minutes will be largely attributed to the #1 PP unit. Souray is a PP specialist, Pitkanen is no slouch either. Add in Hemsky, perhaps Stoll/Horcoff, and if Robbie Shremp makes the team he's a PP specialist also. How can Penner not improve in that environment? With the Ducks, he was getting 2nd PP line time.
4) I really don't think it is that far fetched to think that Penner could get 20-25 even strength goals and another 10-15 on the PP.
But I don't totally disagree with you either. He may crack under the added pressure. He may be restricted by MacT's defensive system. Who knows. All I am saying is that there is a potential for this to be a great hockey move. I would not be surprised to see Penner as a 60+ point guys next year, and 75+ for his next 4 years. If that happens(and I said if) is the $4.25 million/year an overpayment??
Hockey contracts are not all what the player has done, they also involved what a player has a potential to do.
I Love your Kids, IHC is the man, and The Oilers Rule. Does that make me insane?? |
| leafsfan_101 |
Posted - 08/03/2007 : 11:04:54
But don't you think teams will clue in to the fact that Hemsky will feed Penner alot. In Anaheim Penner had two capable linemates, in Edmonton he will have 1, albeit a better one. But how will Penner fair with the extra time. Can he handle it? Some players are more productive playing 14 mins a night as opposed to 20 mins.
Maybe I am underestimating Hemsky but you are overestimating Penner by alot. You seriously think with 6 extra mins in a game and some PP time Penner will become close to a 40 goal scorer. I highly doubt that.
Penner is two years into the NHL, and people only heard of him last season. The yaer before last he only played in 19 games. How he can go from a salary of 450k to $4.25 mil. is something I can't understand.
Second place is only first place of the losers. |
| Guest8372 |
Posted - 08/03/2007 : 10:04:58
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
He can skate and he has a shot.
I agree with all of what you wrote except for the fact the Penner is not a very good skater. Yes he can skate, but then so can I, just not very fast or smooth. Saw it throughout the playoff last year but not the regular season.
Even the TSN analyst indicate that his skating ability needs working on.
|
| Beans15 |
Posted - 08/03/2007 : 09:23:38
Obviously you under estimate Hemsky's passing skills. He is a far superior passer to Getzlef and Perry. Consider the fact that Ryan Smyth, playing with Hemsky for 53 games last year, had 31 goals. That same player with NYI, playing with guys who were not great passers, had 5 goals in 18 games. His goal producting literally dropped in half without Hemsky.
Plus, you talk about Perry and Getzlef. Both got more playing time on the PP than Penner did. And the reason Penner's production will go up is three fold. Playing with Hemsky, playing 1st line minutes, and playing on the first PP squad.
And you think his numbers will go down? How?? See above! And you are seriously under-estimating Hemsky. Anyone who has watched him play will tell you his is one of the best danglers and best set up guys in the league. Plus, I do think Penner is more of a sniper than anyone else the Oilers have. He can skate and he has a shot. The fact that he's huge and can fight in the corners is a plus. That 's something else that people are not considering. He will create more space on the ice for Hemsky and there will be fewer runs at Hemsky with a 6'4" 245 lbs monster on the line. His job with the Oilers will be to put pucks in the net and make sure Hemsky doesn't get manhandled. He is a lot like Ryan Smyth. Although not as good in front of the net, but much better hands. If Smyth can get 36 goals in a season with Hemsky, Penner can get that and possibly more.
I strongly believe you will see at least 30 goals out of him, and I would not be surprised to see 40.
I Love your Kids, IHC is the man, and The Oilers Rule. Does that make me insane?? |
| leafsfan_101 |
Posted - 08/03/2007 : 08:34:39
Don't want to be a double poster but I thought I should get this out there. Penner is making 4.25 million dollars for 5 years. He scored 29 Goals last year. Here are the salaries of the other 29 goal scorers.
Daniel Alfredsson-5.451
Martin Straka-3.3
Brenden Shannahan-2.5
Eric Cole-4.00
Jordan Staal- 0.850
I've got another stat but I'm gonna posty it lateer because i have to go now.
Second place is only first place of the losers. |
| leafsfan_101 |
Posted - 08/03/2007 : 08:16:38
Are you calling Penner a sniper. I'd say a power forward but a sniper, no way. Hemsky is a great player and does need a sniper but by no means is Penner that guy. I can see Penner on the PP and taking up Smyth's role and doin an okay job.
But Penner to have 60-65 points with Hemsky as his only other weapon. Nope. He had 45 points with Perry and Getzlaf. How could he possibly put up 20 more points with just Hemsky and possibly Horcoff. I think he will greatly underacheive this year with the money he is making.
The thing I like about Penner is that he played each game for the Ducks last year. How will he do with an injury or two??
Here are the stats I predict he will get next year.
GP G A PTS PIM +/- PPG
75 21 17 38 64 3 14
Anything over this exceeds my expectations.
Second place is only first place of the losers. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 08/03/2007 : 07:19:06
Leafsfan_101, obviously you did watch much Oiler Hockey in the past two years. Penner is the perfect type of player to have with Hemsky. Sykora at the start of last year had shown a small glimpse of what Hemsky could do with a sniper who could skate. Penner is that kind of guy. Hemsky had 40 assists last year with no one to pass to, and 58 the year before playing with Horcoff and Smyth. Neither are snipers. I can see, realistically, Hemsky with 60ish assists and 80 points and Penner with 30-35 goals and 60-65 points. That 120-125 points for a combined $7 million. Does that seem like too much money to you??
Mark my words, this will be the sleeper deal of the off season.
Too much money. When people start talking about Briere getting $10 million next year then I might agree that Penner is over paid.
I Love your Kids, IHC is the man, and The Oilers Rule. Does that make me insane?? |
| Guest4043 |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 21:46:04
http://www.pickuphockey.com/hockeynews.aspx?article=7008090095 |
| PainTrain |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 20:00:23
Penner will also take Ryan Smyth's place on the Power Play, he'll be doing the dirty work in front of the net. Edmonton should have a good PP, Souray's shot and Penner in front of the net, should work out good.
No Sacrifice , No Victory! |
| leafsfan_101 |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 18:20:43
How well will Penner really do in Edmonton do you think? He was playing with Perry and Getzlaf, anyone would look good with them, especially if they are a power forward like Penner is. Who will he play with Hemsky and Horcoff. Penner isn't good enough for the money he is paid.
Second place is only first place of the losers. |
| Kashmire |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 17:21:04
Forgot about that little Smith deal... My bad. Hemskey it is then haha. Hopefully you guys can get another playmaking type center. I am a leafs fan but I still support Edmonton out of all the Canadian teams in the west. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 17:19:21
Well that would be pretty hard seeing how Lupul now plays for Philly....
I Love your Kids, IHC is the man, and The Oilers Rule. Does that make me insane?? |
| Kashmire |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 16:52:51
Hmm, maybe Lupul and Penner on same line? Could unite that lld Anaheim thing. Don't know if they played together but it is worth a shot. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 16:18:06
PS, you are right that the shutdown 3rd line for the Ducks was Pahlsson, Moen, and R. Niedermayer. They had 17:21, 16:38, and 14:48 ave ice time per game respectively. Penner had 13:59. So even though Penner technically played on the 2nd line, the minutes are more like 3rd line minutes.
I Love your Kids, IHC is the man, and The Oilers Rule. Does that make me insane?? |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 16:13:51
He may have played on the 2nd line, but my point was he wasn't getting many minutes. He had 29 goals in less than 14 minutes/game. If you look at all the players in the league with 29 or more goals, Penner had the fewest minutes/game. My point was put his production with 1st line minutes and 1st line PP and it should (theoretically) improve.
The one thing that is concerning is the last Duck to go to Edmonton with potential was a flop. Lupul went from 28 goals and 53 points with Anaheim to 16 goals and 28 points with Edmonton.
If Penner does the same, you know that the Oilers system nor coaching staff are working effectively. It will be time to change both, if it's not already that time.
I Love your Kids, IHC is the man, and The Oilers Rule. Does that make me insane?? |
| Kashmire |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 15:43:45
It's a good move by both teams. Penner is expendable to the Ducks. Thing is, he will want a huge increase of his salary... It could turn out well but I'm not sure. And didn't he play on the 2nd line?
I thought the third was the shutdown line
Pahlson(sp) - R. Neidermayer - Marchant |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 15:13:40
Overpaid?? Maybe this year, but it this kid hits the potential that most think he will, the $4 million/year will be a steal in the last 4-5 years of the deal. Plus, the kid got 29 goals playing 3rd line minutes. Thinking he will get 1st line time with Edmonton, playing with Hemsky, plus get a ton of time on the PP. I think this might be the sleeper deal of the year. Penner is a solid young player and the Oilers just locked in the start of his prime. Only time will tell if the deal is good or not.
And in the end, I have said it many times an no one has had a single arguement yet. Burke could have avoided all of this if he would have signed Penner to an extension. He had tons of time to do it. Most UFA's and RFA's get over paid when they sign offer sheets or contracts. No one says a word about Briere getting $10 million next year, but everyone is up in arms over a 30 goal scorer getting $4.25 million/year?
Just like good old JR used to say, "Wake up NHL, wake up!"
I Love your Kids, IHC is the man, and The Oilers Rule. Does that make me insane?? |
| Kashmire |
Posted - 08/02/2007 : 14:34:28
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=215290&hubname=
It's been done, no offer matched. Good move by Burke. It's way too much and if Neidermayer or Selanne retire he is completely free to offer any player he wants. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 07/31/2007 : 17:17:09
The money he put out was too much?? C'mon. Maybe a bit, but not like $1.9 million for Kessler.
And what's wrong with Lowe's move?? It's inside the rules. Burke can flap his lips all he wants but at the end of the day, he has no one to blame but himself. He had all last season, all through the playoffs, all the way until last week to sign Penner. He didn't. If he wanted to keep Penner, it would have been done long ago.
And if anything Lowe is sending the message. Protect your RFA's or there will be offer sheets.
This is an awesome move by Lowe. And if you disagree, think of your favorite team and their GM. If they did a move like this to improve their team, would you still think it's a dirty move? If you said yes, you are not a true fan of your hockey club!
I Love your Kids, IHC is the man, and The Oilers Rule. Does that make me insane?? |
| leigh |
Posted - 07/31/2007 : 17:03:18
I don't think it is a bad move at all. Penner is a young guy who will likely be another Bertuzzi (without the baggage) He may be over paid in the short term but in the long run he's worth it if they can keep him happy. Penner grew up in Manitoba so playing in cold Edmonton is no big deal for him (unlike some of the other guys Lowe has gone after) Plus I don't think Neidermayer or Selanne will retire so if Burke matches this then a strong conference rival will be over the cap (smart move by Lowe) And to top it off, Burke got burned on the last offer sheet with Kesler so I think he's "once bitten, twice shy". Lowe is in a great position of power and let's not forget that this is a business and unpleasant things happen all the time in business. After all, it is still within the rules. I love Burke's style and he is a really incredible GM in my mind, but he does this media stuff all the time, so you have to take it with a grain of salt. The timing of Lowe's offer was a bit rude though with Burke's personal obligations. But oh well. |
| Kashmire |
Posted - 07/31/2007 : 16:27:07
I don't think he is going to lose his job or is any threat of it. He is playing a very smart game. Don't forget they practically handed them the cup by handing them Pronger. |
| leafsfan_101 |
Posted - 07/31/2007 : 16:21:35
This was a bulls*** move by Lowe. Sure it makes his team better but the money he put out there is way too much. He did this with Vanek too (Mik u gotta support me on this) to try and save his job. It was, as Brian Burke said, "a gutless move by a GM trying to save his job".
Second place is only first place of the losers. |
| Kashmire |
Posted - 07/31/2007 : 10:45:32
he has untill this thursday to meet the offer. I wouldn't. They don't need Penner for that money and they stil have quite abit of cap room to work with... Especially if Neids or Selanne retire. |
