| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| ginks40 |
Posted - 05/17/2011 : 13:23:42
I know its a little early to start thinking about next season but I'm in a keeper pool and need to at least starting to think about what direction I want to take and any advice/suggestions would be appreciated.
The pool is a point based structure in which forwards receive 1 point for a point, defensemen get 1 point for even strength points and 2 for PP points, goalies receive 2 points for wins and 3 for shutouts. The system was designed such that there was a reasonable amount of parity from position to position.
There are 15 owners in the league. We each must select 6 forwards, 3 d-men, 1 goalie. Then there are 4 wild card positions (2 of which are an injury reserve) that can be any position. Lastly, somewhere in the mix we must select a "rookie" (less than 90 NHL regular season games played).
We are allowed to keep only 4 players for next year. We can keep a 5th player at the cost of our first round pick if we so choose. We can additionally keep our "rookie" for free as long as he is still under the 90 game totals. (Just to be clear our "rookie" is designated at the start of the year and only he may be kept using the "rookie" rules, not just any player with < 90 games on the roster)
My team looks like this:
Forwards: Joe Thornton, Jeff Carter, Brad Richards, Vincent Lecavalier, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Justin Williams
D-men: Brian Rafalski, Brent Seabrook, Erik Karlsson, PK Subban (rookie)
Goalies: Jimmy Howard, Carey Price, Corey Crawford
I finished in 4th place and have traded away my first round selection already so can't keep a 5th. We draft in reverse order of finish from this past season. Subban is my "rookie" and as such is a free keeper. There is the option of trading some of these players for higher draft picks and/or better players.
Who would you suggest keeping for my main 4 players? I'm going to keep my own personal preferences to myself for the time being so as not to influence any of your suggestions. |
| 12 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| ginks40 |
Posted - 05/25/2011 : 16:29:16
Haha, I guess I should check your crystal ball for all things fantasy hockey related from now on so I can avoid things like unexpected retirement.  Now if only you could predict injuries and bad slumps too, I'd be set.
Luckily I wasn't banking on him and have a solid amount of other options. Its too bad to see such a classy player go but he's doing it on his own terms and for good reasons. It will be interesting to see what Detroit does in the off season, especially with Lidstrom possibly retiring as well (although IMO that is more likely to happen next year) |
| n/a |
Posted - 05/23/2011 : 19:56:09
Rafalski looks like he is retiring . . . told ya he wasn't a good option! 
I kid, of course - didn't know he was close to hanging them up.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| ginks40 |
Posted - 05/21/2011 : 11:13:54
I have to keep Subban.
Our rookie was declared at the start of the year and cannot be changed (one of the rules we are thinking about changing).
If I could keep anyone as my "rookie", both Couture and Crawford would be considerations. Based on the value of d-men and goalies vs. forwards, I would still lean towards either Crawford or Subban over Couture. But alas, that is not the case and the decision is made for me.
On a side note, both Couture and Crawford were mid-season acquisitions via trade/waiver pickups so weren't even an option at the start of last season. |
| Guest9729 |
Posted - 05/21/2011 : 09:51:56
Keep Cotoure as your rookie over subban IMO
Price is a must.
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| n/a |
Posted - 05/20/2011 : 13:27:06
I thought you had meant Mike Richards, not Brad Richards.
Does make a bit of a difference, actually. It would mean I replace Crawford (a riskier pick at any rate, knowing he is such a young goalie) with Brad Richards. He is a pretty good lock to make over 75 points in an injury free year, and he isn't moving from Dallas (IMHO), and like you said his chemistry there is great with Eriksson.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| ginks40 |
Posted - 05/20/2011 : 11:19:00
Thanks for the other replies guys.
MrBoogedy...no problem. If you like check back on that site near the end of the summer, if you want to see how we've adjusted the rules.
Guest...you bring up a very good point of letting anyone i think I can get back in the first 3-4 rounds. It can be tough to remember that while I may love a certain player, not every one else might like them as much as I do. This tends to cause one to overvalue their own players and forget that 14 other guys are putting some quality guys back into the draft pool as well.
Very good analysis Slozo. Sorry I didn't put the actual stats up in my original post, which would likely have made it a little easier on you.
I just want to clarify that the Richards that I have is Brad Richards, not Mike Richards. Brad Richards had 77 points as opposed to Mike's 66 points.
Which could change your analysis slightly methinks, unless you were thinking of Brad but just accidentally looked up the wrong player in the year-end statistics.
I agree with pretty much everything you've said about the main players in question:
Richards - I might have to see where he ends up as a UFA. If not for injury he likely would have hit 90 points this year. His chemistry with Eriksson is phenomenal.
Thornton - Definitely an "off" year for him. Might be a sign of things to come with a much deeper and more well rounded San Jose team. More ice-time for Clowe, Couture, Pavelski, Setoguchi could mean less for big Joe and make this 70 some points seasons more of a regularity.
Lecavalier - He's really come back to form at the end of the regular season and in these playoffs. Regular time with Stamkos and St. Louis next year is a really attractive option. But I think it would be somewhat of a risk to count on that.
Couture / Pavelski - Both solid players on a very good team. The amount of upper tier talent here, like for Big Joe, could limit their point totals.
D-men: The "studs" are very valuable but after them, the dropoff in return is pretty steep and levels off around 50 - 65 points. Seabrook is a very attractive option. 1st PP time on a highly productive team, plays with Keith, young, and probably haven't seen his peak yet. Karlsson is a very promising option as well, but as Slozo said, a risky choice on a rebuilding, rather unoffensive team. Rafalski is my personal favorite of the bunch. If not for injuries, he likely would have been up amongst the top 5 d-men (point wise). He is getting old though and may not have many years left in him.
Goalies: Making the assumption that pretty much any playoff team has at least 40 wins and that the starting goalie is the one that records those wins (i know somewhat of a stretch but i'm doing it for simplicity) that means 16 goalies get 80 points. The differentiator between these goalies is shutouts, which is very hard to predict. Price finished 4th overall in points behind only Lundqvist, D. Sedin and Lidstrom. I would be silly not to keep him (side note, I acquired him early in the season in a trade Price/Williams for Turco/Patrick Kane, so I feel somewhat obliged to keep him)
As for the other two goalies, I agree that Crawford should be considered before Howard. Both young and playing on good teams. The difference maker here for me is shutouts. Granted Howard has only played 2 seasons and Crawford 1 so it is a little tough to look at it statistically but Howard has averaged 2.5 shutouts/year in his first two seasons and Crawford recorded 4. Crawford seems a little more proficient at recording the shutouts at this point in his career. Obviously, that can change significantly from year to year.
Thanks again for everyone's comments. I'm not sure if they are helping me or creating even more indecisiveness on my end, but there have been some very good points brought up that I might not have otherwise considered.
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| n/a |
Posted - 05/19/2011 : 11:16:23
Interesting. I like the evening of the point structure idea by giving pp points as extras to d-men . . . hmm.
Before I give an answer to your query, I would first have to see plainly who got how many points, especially the d-men, so I can properly compare. This also eliminates past thoughts and prejudices about actual point totals for the well known players, and brings to light the real point totals of the not so well known:
Thornton - 70
Carter - 66
Richards - 66
Lecavalier - 54
Couture - 56
Pavelski - 66
Williams - 57
(D) Rafalski - 65
(D) Seabrook - 68
(D) Karlsson - 66
(D) Subban - 56
(G) Howard - 80 (63 GS)
(G) Price - 100 (70 GS)
(G) Crawford - 78 (55 GS)
Interesting, eh? Even more so, considering that you have the extra players and reserves . . . and they can be from any position. My thoughts:
1) the goalies are most valuable, hence, they would tend to be those extra players. And, as in all keeper leagues, an ace goalie is always someone you hold onto.
In my opinion, you have one great and one very good young goalie you want to hold onto very tightly - Crawford and Price. Howard had a couple more points than Crawford, but started 8 more games. Still, Howard may be around the same range - good young goalie on a very good team amounts to very good for points.
2) You didn't have one forward with more than 70 points - largely because of a down year from Thornton, who is usually a guaranteed 85+. Is he on the wane? Sure he is, but I agree that it might be foolish to let him go . . . unless . . .
3) . . . one realises that d-men are very valuable in this league - especially the top point getters with lots of pp points. Subban you get to keep for free, which is great - he's on the rise. Seabrook would be on my very short list - young, gets first pp time, on an offensive team, his point totals could even rise in the years to come. Karlsson would be risky, but he's as promising a d-man as you can get, too bad it's on a rebuilding team with very little offence. Rafalski I would stay away from myself - on the wane, and on a team whose offence is getting older and more fragile.
4) The forwards are tough to pick, because you have to think: who can get me 80 points or more? From your group, I'd answer Thornton, and Richards. The other guys are not going to cut it points-wise, and there are many other players in that 65-70 point range you can pick up.
I keep Price, Crawford, Seabrook, Thornton.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Guest4350 |
Posted - 05/19/2011 : 09:10:50
I'm going to pick Thornton, Richards, Rafalski and Price.
With Nik Lid winding down his career (he'll still play just not as much), Rafa will take over as the quarterback of that PP. Vinny Lecav continues to play next season like he does in the playoff, then he will have better stats. But Rafa is the safer bet in my opinion.
In any case give up the one that you think you can get back in the 2nd round. You can probably get Couture back in the 3rd or 4th round perhaps even later. |
| MrBoogedy |
Posted - 05/18/2011 : 21:17:55
awesome. thanks. |
| ginks40 |
Posted - 05/18/2011 : 12:13:45
Mario66...Thanks for the suggestion. Realistically, Thornton and Richards were no brainers. I was leaning toward keeping one of my goalies (probably Price). I don't pick until late in the second round and considering 2 points per win means on an above average team a starting goalie will get likely at least 70 points. If goalies start dropping in the first round as I expect they will (many people underestimated the value of a goalie last year, so I expect goalies will be overvalued this coming year), I won't be left with many options. I was trying to decide between Lecavalier and Couture with my last keeper spot. That being said, your suggestion has a lot of merit as well.
MrBoogedy...We've got our own website for that league, we use it primarily for off-season tracking (www.awesomekeeperleague.com). Our rules are linked on the main page. Feel free to take a look and use whatever rules you would like. We are in the process of adjusting some of the rules that didn't seem to work quite right and obviously you could adjust them to suit your own needs but on the overall whole of things it worked out very well, the order of the top 5 weren't decided until the final week of the regular season, which kept it exciting. |
| MrBoogedy |
Posted - 05/18/2011 : 03:18:09
I'm planning on starting a keeper pool this year and have never been in one before. Some of the above rules sound interesting... is there a website that has a breakdown of possible rules? |
| Mario 66 |
Posted - 05/17/2011 : 13:43:51
For your 4 i'd keep Thorton, Lecalvier (big yr next yr) Couture & Richards. You can pick up a sound goalie early on as many people tend to go for the big name players that are available early on.
Every journey begins with a single step. |
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