| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| n/a |
Posted - 06/20/2011 : 06:04:58
With the upcoming draft and free agents about to be let loose, what next big move do you think Burke will make?
It is clear that once again, the Leafs need a top line centre, and after a bit of a resurgent year for many of the forwards, there are actually pieces to play with. In addition, Burke has two low first round picks to potentially trade up for a higher pick, or use in a trade for an established player.
This year, I think the pressure will be even greater to make the playoffs as Leafs management tries to build a winner in a hockey-mad market.
Give us your musings/wishes on what you think Burke should do, or what he might do!
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| 40 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 07/11/2011 : 10:04:36
Slozo, i agree with your opinion (either here or in another thread?) that Connolly is prob the best Burke could do at the time, all things considered. Leafers must pray that he can play 70-75 games and avoid the injuries that seem to plague him! Pretty good guy when healthy, borderline 1st line center, but much better than they've had in the recent past! |
| n/a |
Posted - 07/10/2011 : 19:41:25
I was gone all this past week, out of touch with internet, phones . . . everything. Here's what happened while I was gone:
1) Brad Richards doesn't sign with the Leafs - goes to the Rangers for a very long deal, although for a decent price considering the offers out there reportedly.
2) Ben Scrivens is re-signed to a one year contract - good goalie prospect. Giguere let go, not re-signed. Interesting . . . going with pure youth it seems, no experienced back-up in sight yet. Scrivens could easily be decent trade bait later in the year, especially if Reimer solidifies his #1 position.
3) Tim Connolly signed by the Leafs for 2 years. Looks like our first line center, IF healthy and IF playing well.
It's not either of the Richards' or Carter . . . but he's a legitimate option for a first line center. Showed great promise two years ago with 17 goals, 48 assists . . . but injury risk is great.
4) 4 way trade with Nashville brings in Cody Franson (D) and Matthew Lombardi (C). Leafs send off Lebda (bye-bye, don't let the door hit you in your ass on the way out!) and a D prospect.
Awesome deal, and IMHO, a total steal. Lombardi might be a very useful player in the future, but who knows how his recovery goes. Franson, on the other hand, looks to be a very big, sturdy young defenceman with a very bright future. He has pretty good offensive skill too.
How the Leafs got two of the best players in the deal I don't know, but there it is.
Even dismissing Lombardi - which I don't want to do - the Leafs have a very strong D on paper now, seemingly. Komisarek would have to scratch and claw his way onto the top 6 . . . which in my opinion is a very good thing.
5) Re-sign Clarke MacArthur to a 2 year deal.
Thank goodness! This was one of my big worries, frankly . . . what chemistry he had with Grabovski and Kulemin, and it would have thrown them off for sure to lose him. Great re-signing, and very important for Grabo, IMHO.
OUTLOOK:
I am pleased as punch. Leafs are looking awesome . . . and the holes of last year are filling up. Reimer repeating is a question mark, yes - but that was always gonna be, and nothing we can do but wait and see on that. Connolly is no Brad Richards, but he's not a bad stop gap at this point, and our first line hopes might rest on his health, so it's still a weak spot, but not a glaring one at this point - especially with Lombardi as a possibility to be plugged in there later if injuries do occur to Connolly. The defence is really looking solid.
Can't wait for hockey to start up again. 
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Mario 66 |
Posted - 07/07/2011 : 13:46:23
Gotcha & I agree with your reasoning behind the decision even though it will cost the on ice production of the team.
At this point i'd trade him for a bag of pucks just to free up the cap space, but who knows 4 months from now we maybe discussing the resurrection of MK 
Every journey begins with a single step. |
| Guest4086 |
Posted - 07/07/2011 : 13:37:24
Mario, my logic is strictly based on his contract. they won't bury him like they did Finger, and it's next to impossible to trade him. they may make him a healthy scratch on the odd night, but more then likely he'll get a spot in the starting 6.
i'm not saying i agree with it, i'm just saying that's the way it's gonna be. i agree with you when you say that guys like Aulie and Gunnarsson should be put ahead of him. but at the end of the day, you and i both know that Komisarek will be there. |
| Guest3174 |
Posted - 07/07/2011 : 12:31:46
I'm 100% confused plus or minus a few idiots |
| Mario 66 |
Posted - 07/07/2011 : 10:55:21
Guest not trying to bust your chops, but I have to ask how you put Komasarek a player who's play has been totally anaemic since arriving in Toronto ahead of Aulie who with Schenn was arguably the leafs best Dman down the stretch & two young solid dmen in Gunnarson & Franson?
Komasarek, until he proves he can play at the level he did in Montreal should play as little minutes as possible, but thats just from what I see watching him in Toronto night in & out.
Every journey begins with a single step. |
| Guest4086 |
Posted - 07/07/2011 : 09:41:40
Burke's probably been trying to move Komisarek since last year. not certain but i think he's got a conditional NTC in his contract, which makes it harder to move him. not to mention his cap hit combined with his level of play.
overall, the D does look solid. it's gonna be a battle to make the team this year, which is what you want. you gotta figure that all of Phaneuf, Liles, Schenn, and Komisarek are locks. that leaves guys like Aulie, Franson, Gunnarsson, and even Finger all fighting for 2 spots (well, maybe 3 if you want to include a healthy scratch like Lebda was last year). should be interesting to see how it all develops. |
| Mario 66 |
Posted - 07/07/2011 : 08:55:20
I still think Burke will try to move Komasarek as he is essentially the odd man out right now or should be. If nothing else moving him would free up more space for some moves next yr or even in a sign & trade deal.
The leafs are headed in the right direction, they still have a lot of work to do, but their Top 6 fwds are alright & I really like what should be their top 4 D in Phaneuf, Schenn, Franzen & Aulie. 6'5 & 6'4 with youth and talent is a vast improvement as a second unit form komasarek & Beauchemin last season & much more economically friendly.
Every journey begins with a single step. |
| 99pickles |
Posted - 07/06/2011 : 14:17:22
"Burke's Next Move"
With almost $9M in cap space they certainly have room to sign a solid player. They have a very good defensive corps, and they appear to be going with Gustavsson/Reimer in net (believe it or not).
They could surely use more offense from their forwards, so is this where he spends some cash?
These words here make me think that he won't be doing much else:
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=371119
Getting Franson and Lombardi for Lebda+assets was a great move at least, but they need scoring up front. |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/27/2011 : 09:40:45
quote:
I agree about Colorado . . . not sure why they traded Liles at all, it's a head-scratcher. Especially since you would think they could have gotten more value for him, as it was clear that Burke really wanted him.
COL has supposedly been down on Liles since before last season, he didn't live up to expectations and spent chunks of the 09-10 season in the press box (a-la Ballard in VAN). His resurgence last year made it impossible to bench him, but clearly management was not sold on him for some reason.
It was a good pickup for TOR, and he'll be as good as Kaberle, if not better - certainly more physical. |
| n/a |
Posted - 06/27/2011 : 07:56:54
I agree about Colorado . . . not sure why they traded Liles at all, it's a head-scratcher. Especially since you would think they could have gotten more value for him, as it was clear that Burke really wanted him.
Makes me think about the possibility of getting Duchene in a trade, in fact, if they are so willing to give up good talent, ha ha.
I still think Toronto is one of the front runners for Richards, but that is IF - and it's a big IF - Burke really wants him. He has given hints about it, but I don't know whether Richards past concussion is a concern or not, and whether Burke likes him. He seems to be a Burke kind of guy, so I would assume yes, but we just don't know for sure yet.
Are other teams going to be in the mix? No doubt.
Who knows if Tampa Bay tries to lure him back there and perhaps deal away Lecavalier or other pieces to fit him in. It would be a mighty tempting place to go for Richards, IF Stevie Y makes that play. I doubt it though, I think his primary concern will be for a quality goaltender.
Carolina may be a player, but I haven't heard anything from them really that indicates they will go after him, so who knows.
New York could be there, unless they sign Jagr, in which case they're out - but Jagr seems to like Detroit perhaps.
I can't see LA being in the picture anymore with Mike Richards there, and besides - they are at their quota, only 1 Richards per team.
No, if Burke really likes him and wants him, I think the Leafs have a great chance to get Brad Richards.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/26/2011 : 16:01:44
JM Liles is a great pick up for TO. He is the exact player I think they needed to complete their defensive group. He can play all situations well, is an above average puck mover, and can fill in any spot 1 through 4 very well. If Phanfeuf gets hurt/slumps, Liles can step into that role very well. He is almost picture perfect to play with a partner who is more about the physical/shut down kind of play. I think Liles and Schenn would be a great duo.
This trade also raises a few questions for COL. They are one of those teams who are near the bottom of the salary cap. They have a wopping $34 million of cap space. They are nearly $20 million below the cap basement with 14 players signed. They have TONS of cap room and Liles was $4.2 million. Even more interesting with COL, is that they have only 2 players signed after this season. Other than Stastny and Cameron Gaunce (?) are signed after this year. I get they have some young talent like Duchene and Quincey but WTF?
I don't really get what COL is doing at all. |
| Leafs81 |
Posted - 06/26/2011 : 14:54:22
I like the J-M Liles trade. Burke didn't give a whole lot for it (a second round draft pick that he got just because Boston reached the finals) And he's a capable 40-45 points defenseman which is good. I hope he gels with Phaneuf better then Kaberle did.
Also when you think of it they got Liles, Colbourne and a first rounder for Kaberle, but Boston got what they wanted with a rental, they won the cup. And Toronto got a draft pick that was expendable and they used it to get somebody to replace Kaberle. Pretty good. still in shock on that miss opportunity on Carter and M. Richards. It now looks like only B.Richards is on the market that could fill the Leafs biggest need. And quite honnestly I don't think he will sign with Toronto because Burke is stubburn and he wont overpay to get him (although he did throw in a whole lot of money to Komisarek) and I'm sure a team or two will be willing to. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/26/2011 : 11:11:01
Thanks for the response Slozo
To the Richards question, here is another thought that has not been discussed. Richards has never played in a fishbowl. Tampa Bay and Dallas are both cities where a hockey player can have a life outside of the arena. He appears to be a good old boy from PEI. Not sure if the big lights of a city like NY or a city like NY that is far more hockey crazy would fit this guys eye.
I still think the front runner for Richards is Carolina. They are one of those teams that have to pay to reach the low end of the cap, it's a smaller hockey market that Richards is used to, he has stated they are on his short list, and Rutherford covets being skilled down the middle. |
| The Duke |
Posted - 06/24/2011 : 15:57:11
This was what i was talking about, sign a short contract D-man and have a look at Gardiner and Blacker...then decide, great move.
People only talk about the reasons why B. Richards may not want to come to Toronto. Things are looking up for the leafs..finally...They are starting to bring in some real hockey players and some of their young kids are looking good.
With a few insertions here and there...2 - 3 holes filled...the leafs can become a very, very competitive team.
I can see a player like B. Richards becoming a star personality in a city like Toronto. I`m sure Doug Gilmour has many fond memory`s while playing in Toronto.
Remember, winning teams only win with great players , maybe Brad Richards can re - kindle those winning ways.
I think he will go else-where though....but then again....i was shocked to see Mike Richards leave Philly, let alone Jeff Carter. |
| Guest4038 |
Posted - 06/24/2011 : 15:12:32
with Liles only having one year left on his contract this will allow blue chipper Jake Gardner to comfortably play a full season in the AHL and then hopefully make the jump for the 2012-13 season.
good move by Burke and doesn't give up a lot to get him. |
| n/a |
Posted - 06/24/2011 : 14:39:29
Liles pick-up looks ok.
Probably paying him a bit more than we'd want to, but on face value, he's very close to a Tomas Kaberle, except he shoots more, blocks more shots, and has upside - or at the least, is not in any way on the downside of his career. For the same price as a Kaberle would have been.
Will good on the power play with Phaneuf.
Looking forward to what other pick deals Burke can swing.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Guest4312 |
Posted - 06/24/2011 : 14:23:12
and also... liles was the pp quarterback..... isn't there supposed to be a guy capable of filling that role available at no.2 in the draft? this trade almost guarantees the avs take larsson
|
| Guest4312 |
Posted - 06/24/2011 : 14:17:58
wait for it.... this is just the first domino in many to follow from the avs and maple leafs today |
| Sensfan101 |
Posted - 06/24/2011 : 14:09:22
Well it looks like Burkes next move was getting a defenseman. The Leafs mave traded their second round pick for John Michael Liles. Liles has one year left on his contract at 4.5 million.
You miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take Wayne Gretzky |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 06/24/2011 : 12:03:33
Slozo, this indeed sounds a little more promising as far as the possibilities of him landing in TO.
I don't recall him ever saying he wouldn't wanna play there, but i do recall him mentioning that shortlist of teams which didn't include TO, so.....?
No one saw the Richards trade coming, so surprises do happen! |
| nuxfan |
Posted - 06/24/2011 : 11:45:23
quote:
Darned it if I could not find any quote from any source where I could tag Richards with saying he does not want to come to Toronto.
Richards will never say that, especially to the press - he's a pretty classy guy. Other than Bryzgalov shunning Winnipeg, I can't recall a time when a player has come right out and said "I don't want to play in X".
So, we'll see where he goes on July 1. All reports that I've seen strongly suggest that it is between CAR and NYR for Richard's services - and why would he not pick either one over TOR? Both have (arguably) a better chance of winning sooner than TOR, and both will be much easier on Richards personally as well. If I had a choice of making 7M a year in NYC, Raleigh, or TOR, but in the first 2 I can walk the streets without anyone recognizing me and in the last one a lengthy article will be written every time I open my mouth or step out of my home, I know which one I wouldn't take. |
| n/a |
Posted - 06/24/2011 : 11:25:53
Alrighty then, back squarely onto the subject at hand.
Many have made comments about Brad Richards not wanting to come to Toronto, so I did some quote picking.
Here's what he said in interviews:
quote:
Unplugged: Brad Richards addresses Leafs rumours
REUTERS/Mark Blinch
Dallas Stars Brad Richards (L) and Stephane Robidas.
.Comments Twitter LinkedIn Email .Sean Fitz-Gerald Nov 22, 2010 – 12:53 PM ET | Last Updated: Nov 22, 2010 2:25 PM ET
Dallas Stars centre Brad Richards has been linked, by speculation, to the Toronto Maple Leafs, which made him very popular with reporters following the team’s pre-game skate on Monday.
The 30-year-old is in the final season of his contract with the Stars, which will pay him US$7.8-million, and includes a no-movement clause. Toronto, meanwhile, is averaging 2.26 goals a game, and could really, really use some help up the middle.
Here is a partial transcript of his remarks, made hours before the Stars were set to face the Leafs in Toronto (Sportsnet-Ontario, 7 p.m. ET):
Does he think about the speculation?
“I’m not going to lie to you, the situation is what it is. It’s not something that isn’t talked about, and it’s not something that (general manager) Joe (Nieuwendyk) and I haven’t talked about. We know the situation’s not ideal for this time being … but obviously, we’re open and talking about it and giving the chance for ownership to come in. But I’m a Dallas Star, and that’s where my focus is right now.”
Does Toronto’s alleged involvement pique his interest?
“When the time comes, if that’s an option, Toronto’s always a No. 1 hockey destination. It would be great being a Canadian playing in Toronto, but we’re not even close to that bridge yet. And like I said, I’m focused here. I have so much respect for Joe Nieuwendyk, and to even talk about other teams is not even close to being fair.”
On playing the Leafs:
“This is probably one of the teams, no matter where you’re playing, you get to hear and see about their goods and bads a lot more than any other team. We know what they’re facing, but they’re in a bit of a bubble here, where they have to come out and play hard every night, especially on home ice, with all of the attention they get.”
On the determined effort the Stars have been showing:
“I think the last two games, we’ve come back, (against) San Jose and Colorado. We didn’t get the two points against Colorado, but we showed great will and resiliency to come back. A tough conference, in the West. You’ve got to win pretty much seven of every 10 games if you want to stay in the playoffs.”
On playing the point on the power-play:
“I’ve done it, pretty much, my whole life. I’m fortunate to be able to do it in the NHL, too. It’s something I’ve always felt comfortable with. I played a bit of (defence) growing up, and I think I just like seeing the ice. Taking the puck up the ice, it’s fun.”
On visiting the fishbowl that is the NHL in Toronto:
“This is fun. Playing in two Sun Belt cities, to come up to Canada — no matter Toronto, or what time in your career, or the situation — it’s always just fun. I’ve got family here and friends, and it’s just good to see everybody excited. It’s a different feeling in the morning, when you come in here. Obviously, there’s more media than there are players in the room when you’re here in Toronto.”
Hmm. Sounded very positive, very nice. But that was Nov 22 2010, and maybe he was just being polite for the media, etc.
Darned it if I could not find any quote from any source where I could tag Richards with saying he does not want to come to Toronto.
If anyone could lend any credence to that vicious rumour, please provide a source.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Guest4312 |
Posted - 06/23/2011 : 10:25:12
this is a forum to talk about hockey not a jerry springer episode.... take the drama out we all love and care about hockey and last time i checked none of us are scouts, gms, or coaches so everyone has an equally valid opinion |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/23/2011 : 09:56:43
Good Job Slozo!!! Way to post 2 lines of a 4 paragraph post. Need I remind you of the post below. This was my opinion, which you infered I did not provide. This is my rebuttle, to which you said I did not bring to the table in fear of pitting my guess against your in public. This was me staying in the background so I can say I told you so without proof later on.
Perhaps you missed the clear percentages and the rationale behind my thoughts?? Maybe you missed the very clear statement of "I would say there is a 25% chance of the Leafs having a legitimate top tier centre next season."
I'm really not sure what your expectation of a rebuttle opinion is, but I do know if you are going to bring some long elaborate attempt at a "bitch slap" you should ensure you have all the background covered and understood. Everything you claim I didn't do is exactly what I did do in my original respose to your percentage posts. Keep it up, you make yourself look better and better with every post!
Here is the entire post, not just 2 lines.
Finally, as far as your comment of :
You will note that I try my best to give reasoned, polite and non-sarcastic responses to people who are reasoned, polite and seem to want a serious answer.
Right back at you.
Wow Slozo, is what you are saying is there is close to a 70%-80% chance that either Richards or Carter is a Leaf next season??
I gotta put in at least a 50% Leaf bias adjustment into your formula.
Firstly, you can say all you want about posturing from a player but Richards has said on multiple occasions that his list is NY, CAR, an TB. CAR has HUGE cap space. Significantly more than TO has. If he wants to play there and they pay him, why pick Toronto?? Not only that, knowing Burke's need for that player, if there was something brewing for Richard to go to TO, a trade for his rights would have been made.
I think your 38% chance is more like 10%, maybe less. The only way he goes to TO is if his 1st choice teams low ball him. Not likely.
Carter, well I can see that number being higher than the Richards number but still not 29% or 38%. There are piles of teams who would be interested in Richards/Carter. In fact, I would say there are only about 5-6 teams that would not make a serious go at him and it would not be because they wouldn't want him. It would be because they are already deep at the centre position and/or they are also up against the cap. Considering one or both of them may or not be available and there would be a number of other teams persuing those options, the chances are closer to 10%-15%.
I would say there is a 25% chance of the Leafs having a legitimate top tier centre next season. What is more likely is that Burke makes some moves at the draft to move into the top 10 and get's his hands on a younger potential 1st line centre. There are 3-4 available who all appear to be studs. Then, go at a guy like Lieno and maybe pick up another defensemen in the FA market in July. |
| n/a |
Posted - 06/23/2011 : 08:01:46
"Wow Slozo, is what you are saying is there is close to a 70%-80% chance that either Richards or Carter is a Leaf next season??
I gotta put in at least a 50% Leaf bias adjustment into your formula."
And you are surprised that I responded with the exact same condecension?
That, in itself, is priceless.
You know, I put your knockdown of my supposition in the same category of anyone else who offers up no opinion of their own in comparison - ho hum. Because I find it fascinating when people who are quick to knock someone's guess on the likelihood of a free agent destination offer up no guess of their own. Are you afraid you can't come up with something? Are you scared of pitting your guess against mine in public? Afraid of ridicule?
Then stay in the background and don't knock anyone else for laying it on the line. Then, when they are right or wrong, you can be like the other brave souls out there who, after witnessing some big unexpected trade, can chirp up with "I knew it!" or "I told you so!" etc. It's called the peanut gallery for a reason.
You will note that I try my best to give reasoned, polite and non-sarcastic responses to people who are reasoned, polite and seem to want a serious answer.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/23/2011 : 06:10:44
Firstly, thanks for the shot Slozo. I haven't taken many stats courses and the last I took was well over a decade ago. It was a legitimate question and I appreciate your condescending answer. Forgive me for wanting clarification for something I did not understand.
Secondly, I still would question a 40% chance looking at an individual player of Richards or Carter. As stated and not argued the Leafs are not the only team interested in these players. Using my limited and obviously far inferior understanding of probability, would one not want to start with the simple number of teams interested? Let’s use Brad Richard's as an example. Through stories and interviews I know of 4 teams he is interested in (NYR, CAR, TB, and DAL). Considering that alone, would the odds not be 20 %( those 4 teams plus the Leafs) to start with?? Once that is established, other variables would go into the mix. Comparable assets in a trade, cap space, etc. So considering only those factors, the Leafs would not be the #1 team on the list. Would that not make the probability less than 20%?? But wait, we also have not factored in all the teams that Richards has not indicated he would be interested in but who would be interested with him? Would that not lessen the probability even more?? Again, I am no stats/probability experts like others on the site appear to be, but logic speaks to me pretty clearly. 38% (regardless of the number being tongue in cheek or not) is not reasonable or logical.
Finally, it’s not that people get offended by your opinions. People get offended by strong opinions. You are not the only one who gets pounced on when they make a post on this site. People may take exception to the presentation. Making comments like “Beans - I can see you never took statistics,” followed by a smart a$$ answer sure doesn’t make people want to agree with you (or even to agree to disagree). Your posts often have arrogance about them as if saying that no one else has an opinion that matters and yours is the only one of value. I see that even more so regarding the Leafs. A great example of this is a recent back and forth between you and FER that really didn’t have to happen at all. That’s what I see from my perspective. (You asked)
Now, I do not for a second think that I do anything differently. I too am very opinionated, often have the less than popular opinion, and often make comments that people take personally. I know that and accept the responses get. I’m not surprised nor do I question that people are offended or don’t accept my opinions.
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| n/a |
Posted - 06/23/2011 : 05:43:56
quote:
Originally posted by Guest9904
Who cares how Beans or Alex read Slozo's comments on player percentages, he pulled them out of thin air anyway.
We all know that Leaf's are looking for a top line center, but to assess percentages is ludicrous, even for a fan.
I think there's a 98% chance +/-5% 19 times out of 20 that Slozo made those numbers up.
Well, I suppose it's your right not to care about what chance I think any deal has of happening. But I'll say this much . . . I predict 0.001% of readers on PUH care what Guest 9904 says about anything!
I base it on my hockey knowledge and experience, and what I have heard and read. That's not total thin air, frankly. Yes, it's a guess like anyone else guessing what moves may or may not happen . . . but it's an educated one. I think I stand by my history of posts and predictions as having some reasonable standing amongst this crowd.
Beans - I can see you never took statistics.
If I have a 50% chance of a coin coming up heads when I flip it, it doesn't make it 100% the time after I flip it and it comes up tails. In fact, it doesn't raise the percentage even one point, even I flip it to tails a hundred times in a row - still 50% every time.
I never said there is a 70-80% chance Carter or Brad Richards are Leafs . . . I said there is a 38% chance that Richards is a Leafs, and between 29-38% chance Carter is a Leaf. The range for Carter is because Brad Richards could sign with the Rangers on July 1st or the first week in July, and then the percentage would rise that Burke presses for a deal to get another top notch center - that's all.
That's still well below 50% for either to happen, and I give it 0% that both happen.
I am just curious . . . why do people get so offended that I give my opinion on what odds/chance there is the Leafs go for this or that player?
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 16:47:11
quote:
Originally posted by Guest9904
Who cares how Beans or Alex read Slozo's comments on player percentages, he pulled them out of thin air anyway.
We all know that Leaf's are looking for a top line center, but to assess percentages is ludicrous, even for a fan.
I think there's a 98% chance +/-5% 19 times out of 20 that Slozo made those numbers up.
And your problem with Slozo offering up his opinion is what?  |
| Guest4038 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 15:33:30
TSN said today that it's unlikely you'll see any of Carter, Briere, or Richards being shipped out of Philly over the next week or two. they see most likely Carle and Versteeg to be moved.
and even if Carter can be moved, they didn't see Toronto in hot pursuit of him.
this was from Bob McKenzie. usually a pretty good source. |
| Guest9904 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 15:21:11
Who cares how Beans or Alex read Slozo's comments on player percentages, he pulled them out of thin air anyway.
We all know that Leaf's are looking for a top line center, but to assess percentages is ludicrous, even for a fan.
I think there's a 98% chance +/-5% 19 times out of 20 that Slozo made those numbers up. |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 14:31:45
Beans, i'm not sure, but one of us is reading Slozo's predictions incorrectly. I don't think he's saying there's 80% chance of one of those two being there. I think he meant approx 38% chance of one or the other, but i could be wrong?
I can't agree more that most teams will inquire about these guys, especially Carter with his lower cap hit and less health (concussion) concerns. |
| Pasty7 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 14:21:53
I gotta go with Beans on this one if Carter is being shopped or even Richards there will be at least 25 offers for them , teams like Cloumbus have to do something for Nash and their fans or else their team could be the next to move north,, and teams like Columbus will and can pay a lot more for Carter or Richards than the Leafs can afford to offer... like i said even the habs who have 13 million tied up in their top two centers would be crazy nopt to at elast make a bid for Carter or Richards
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 13:03:00
Wow Slozo, is what you are saying is there is close to a 70%-80% chance that either Richards or Carter is a Leaf next season??
I gotta put in at least a 50% Leaf bias adjustment into your formula.
Firstly, you can say all you want about posturing from a player but Richards has said on multiple occasions that his list is NY, CAR, an TB. CAR has HUGE cap space. Significantly more than TO has. If he wants to play there and they pay him, why pick Toronto?? Not only that, knowing Burke's need for that player, if there was something brewing for Richard to go to TO, a trade for his rights would have been made.
I think your 38% chance is more like 10%, maybe less. The only way he goes to TO is if his 1st choice teams low ball him. Not likely.
Carter, well I can see that number being higher than the Richards number but still not 29% or 38%. There are piles of teams who would be interested in Richards/Carter. In fact, I would say there are only about 5-6 teams that would not make a serious go at him and it would not be because they wouldn't want him. It would be because they are already deep at the centre position and/or they are also up against the cap. Considering one or both of them may or not be available and there would be a number of other teams persuing those options, the chances are closer to 10%-15%.
I would say there is a 25% chance of the Leafs having a legitimate top tier centre next season. What is more likely is that Burke makes some moves at the draft to move into the top 10 and get's his hands on a younger potential 1st line centre. There are 3-4 available who all appear to be studs. Then, go at a guy like Lieno and maybe pick up another defensemen in the FA market in July.
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| Guest5052 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 12:55:53
Its interesting to see what the Leafs might do. I am neither a fan nor a hater, but you suspect they are desperate to make moves and push for a playoff berth.
Its obviously pure speculation, but the discussion about Carter being either a good or bad fit, makes you wonder. First it would need to be agreed that he'd play first line, with Kessel (which finding someone to play with Kessel seems like the Leafs most pressing need no?)
I cant think of too many first lines that have two shooters on the line, especially with one being at Centre. This is not to say that it couldnt work, or that either player (Carter more likely) couldn't adapt to a newer role, but it does make you think. Tampa, Vinny Stamkos and M St.L come to mind, but as the exception (amd St. Louis is also a great playmaker).
I suspect that the Leafs will make a strong offer for Brad Richards, as I think he is exactly what they need (them and pretty much every other team).
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| n/a |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 10:56:11
Hmm, good point on Kadri in all probability moving from centre to wing. It certainly does change things, and makes it easier to plug him into the top two lines (if he has a good camp, obviously) by replacing a potentially departed MacArthur with Kadri.
Then we just have a top centre position to fill, and Bozak moves down to where he should be, on the third line as a defensively responsible checker.
Quality centres we could get through trade / signing:
1) B. Richards (UFA)
Probably the player that most perfectly fits what we want, but he'll ask for a lot, and has reportedly said he doesn't want to go to Toronto. Still, it's not like the Rangers have tonnes of room to sign him, and he could just be posturing. Speaking of posturing, Burke let slip that he has changed his mind somewhat on long term contracts . . . is that for Richards' benefit?
Possibility: 38%. He will be pursued heavily by Burke, and the market to take his contract is small. He has publicly said he isn't going to Toronto . . . could be a bluff though.
Fit: Nearly perfect, if not for his age and concussion issue from recent years.
2) Jeff Carter (PHA)
He has reportedly been shopped by the Flyers, who will be in serious need of shedding salary if/when they sign Bryzgalov - even with the increase in cap, they need to clear 5 mil. He is a legitimate top line centre with scoring skill and grit.
Possibility: 29%, rises to 38% if B.Richards is picked up by another team first. He will be heavily pursued by everyone, but Burke does have pieces to deal back to Philly that are cheap (picks, prospects), the only thing is getting a deal done, and Philly may not want him to stay in the East.
Fit: Not too bad - he's a top line player, who may or may not mesh well with a Kessel on the top line. He's gritty though, and excellent on the pk, so that might push him into "pretty good" territory.
3) Mike Richards (PHA)
I know, I know . . . it would take a lot to trade a guy who is almost a franchise-type player, who is young, can do it all, and is their captain. BUT . . . Bryzgalov contract will be huge, they have serious cap issues, and there has long been a reported rift between M.Richards and the coach - they don't even talk, supposedly. And this came to a head in the playoffs, where Pronger repeatedly butted heads with the captain.
Possibility: very slim . . . 4%? 5%? Still, where there is a tiny wisp of smoke . . .
Fit: almost perfect, close to 100% perfect fit. He is a great playmaker for our top sniper (Kessel), he is a tough, gritty player, a leader, plays very responsible in own end, great on pk . . . everything you want, basically.
Which is why he may never move from Philly!
4) Jason Spezza (OTT)
Rumours are that he is available for the right price, as Ottawa rebuilds and explores all options. However . . . it IS Ottawa, and they sort of don't like us. And, they may be asking for too much.
Possibility: Slim, just because it's Ottawa, maybe 7%. Scratch that, since Burke probably wouldn't pursue him, 2%.
Fit: Quite good. He's not physical, not known fir his defensive responsibility, but . . . he can be a top notch playmaker, and could make Kessel a 50 goal man if there is chemistry.
5) Lecavalier (TB)
He's also rumoured to be available, because he's not the same Lecavalier that was once playoff MVP, and because of cap trouble for TB. May be overpriced for a diminished returns guy though.
Possibility: 4%. Not likely, really, as he is much more likely to stay put in TB unless Yzerman gets an offer he can't refuse.
Fit: Ok I suppose . . . but far from perfect. He's slower than he used to be, still has high end skill, but has shown long periods of looking ordinary. Needs a playmaker more than IS a playmaker, so not sure how he'd be with Kessel. Could be a bust if he landed in TO.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 10:00:04
Interesting Willus. But i did just read that the Habs will offer Hamrlik a contract and that he'd like to stay there. At 37, his days are numbered but as a 5/6 dman in Montreal, i think they'll look at him. Will Burke overpay for a guy to play top pairing with Dion when he's considered a 5/6 in Montreal? |
| willus3 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 09:21:55
Wouldn't surprise me to see Hamrlik signed.
If he's committed to his fitness and still has drive to play he could be a great fit. Paired with Phaneuf, as playing with Hamrlik is when Phaneuf had his most productive seasons. They fit well together.
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| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 08:55:21
A PP QB if over rated?? Really.
Let's talk about PP for a second. The top 5 PP teams in the NHL were VAN, SJS, ANA, CHI, and DET in that order. All of them playoff teams. Two of them Conference finalists and one of them a Cup finalist.
Now, let's look at the 5 worst PP's in the NHL. They are FLA, NJD, CBJ, EDM, and NASH. 3 of them are lottery teams, 4 are picking in the top 10 and only one made the playoffs.
Now, take a look at the primary PP-QB on each of those teams.
Van -Ehrhoff
SJS - Boyle
ANA - Visnovsky
CHI - Keith
Det - Lidstrom
FLA -McCabe until the deadline then Wideman
CBJ - Tyutin
NJD - Greene
EDM - Whitney for 30ish games, then Gilbert
NASH - Weber
Do you see a trend there??? Is it a coincidence that the primary PP-QB on the best 5 PP's in the league were also 1st, 2nd, 4th, 7th, and 17th in PP scoring for defensemen??
It takes more than a PP-QB to make a PP successful but it is a big part of it. Not over-rated in the least. |
| leafsfan_101 |
Posted - 06/22/2011 : 08:04:33
The Leafs most pressing issue is depth down center. Just as a side note, I don't think that Kadri will be laying center next year, or in the future for that matter. He excelled as a winger last season, and I think that's where he's going to project next year.
I don't think that the Leafs need Jeff Carter tbh. Carter is a shoot first, gifted scorer, but a 1st line of him, Lupul and Kessel doesn't work. As mentioned, Brad Richards makes PERFECT sense to be in a Leafs uniform next season. I'm not saying its for sure, and it is unlikely given what Richards has said, but I cannot think of a more perfect 1st line guy who can play effectively in every area of the ice. I think that there is a very real possibility Richards is in the blue and white.
As a whole, the defense has improved. While they do need a puck mover and a PP guy like they had in Kaberle, I don't think it is a main priority. Phaneuf does an ample job of moving up the puck, as does Gunnarsson. Looking at the Boston Bruins, the most recent Cup Champs, Kaberle sure didn't add a lot of success to their powerplay, and it is arguable that they had a legitimate PP QB (Seidenberg maybe). PP QB is overrated, most clubs don't need one to have a successful PP, although I would be ignorant in saying it is of no help at all. I am am saying, however, that it should not be a priority.
Fix the Special Teams (which has taken a step in the right direction by firing the Assistant Coaches) and rely on the stable goaltending of Reimer, and the Leafs have an opportunity of seeing hockey late in April. |
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