| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| Rambo2305 |
Posted - 06/24/2009 : 07:18:13
Ok, so with the draft around the corner, and free agency looming...
What does Brian Burke do? Trade everyone for picks, use his cap space and gulp up some big names, etc. etc....
Play the role of Leafs GM here (over Devil's Advocate) and tell us what you think the Leafs will do, and if you're so bold, predict their 2009-2010 season too??
"Most people spend time and energy going around problems, rather than trying to solve them" - Henry Ford |
| 20 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| Rambo2305 |
Posted - 06/26/2009 : 09:58:06
quote:
Originally posted by Guest9838
Rambo,
I think you're wrong about GMs taking any of those players over Bouwmeester. Lidstrom and Chara definately, but I think he'd be in the mix with the other guys because of his total package.
His average of 33 pts takes into account his first two pre-strike seasons. His last 4 have averaged 42 pts. And as the other guest said he's hit 15 goals 2 years in a row. I think those pt totals will rise on a better team. And I doubt the time on ice will drop much. Lidstrom in his best years averaged around 29min a game with a great supporting d-cast, so 26 mins for Bouwmeester would be appropriate (especially for what a team will pay him)
If he moves to an offensive team I see him in the 45-50 pt range with his +/- going way up. If by the time he's 29-31ish and he's hitting 15-20 goals and 50-60 pts, +20 on a contender then he'll definately be a norris candidate.
Or it could all fall apart, we'll see after he moves, my money is on him improving though.
And if he makes say 6.5MM average, that's less than Timonen, Visnovsky, Boyle, and Campbell, tied with Phaneuf and more than Pronger (6.25), Jovo (6.0), Rafalski (6.0), Roszival (6.0), Markov (5.75), Gonchar (5.5), Hamrlik (5.5), Souray (5.5), etc.
I'd say that's fair market value when you compare to the contracts out there.
Kaberle's the one who is currently well under market value, look for him to re-up somewhere in the 5.5-6.0 range
I will agree with a couple points, starting to turn my mind a bit, but still say Bouwmeester shouldn't get more then 6 (at the most)...
As for Kaberle looking for a raise, I say he won't. He is one of the most humble players on the Leafs. When he does go back on the market in a couple years, look for him to sign for either the same amount, or less...
"Most people spend time and energy going around problems, rather than trying to solve them" - Henry Ford |
| n/a |
Posted - 06/26/2009 : 09:55:04
I see two options for Burke that are becoming more and more clear to me:
1) Trading up to get Braydon Schenn
Schenn is a player Burke really likes, and this is quite doable as he might not even have to part with Kaberle to only move up two spots (assuming Kane goes 4th and the top three remain the top three). This involves the LA Kings, and I could see a guy like Ponikarovsky and their 7th pick going to LA for the 5th.
2) Trading down to get Kassian
This kid is big, tough, and can even score . . . prototypical Burkian player. I think this is the plan if he truly can't move up the draft and if Kane and Schenn and Cowan are not available by the 7th pick. Kassian is projected to go in the 13-15 range, so I could see Burke trading down to get another pick, perhaps even in this draft. Potentially, this would involve a swap with Edmonton, Nashville or Minnesota . . . I can't see the Leafs trading down with Ottawa for 9th.
The third option is, of course, that the Leafs keep their 7th pick, and take the best available player . . . but where would the fun in that be?!?
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Guest9838 |
Posted - 06/26/2009 : 08:48:45
Rambo,
I think you're wrong about GMs taking any of those players over Bouwmeester. Lidstrom and Chara definately, but I think he'd be in the mix with the other guys because of his total package.
His average of 33 pts takes into account his first two pre-strike seasons. His last 4 have averaged 42 pts. And as the other guest said he's hit 15 goals 2 years in a row. I think those pt totals will rise on a better team. And I doubt the time on ice will drop much. Lidstrom in his best years averaged around 29min a game with a great supporting d-cast, so 26 mins for Bouwmeester would be appropriate (especially for what a team will pay him)
If he moves to an offensive team I see him in the 45-50 pt range with his +/- going way up. If by the time he's 29-31ish and he's hitting 15-20 goals and 50-60 pts, +20 on a contender then he'll definately be a norris candidate.
Or it could all fall apart, we'll see after he moves, my money is on him improving though.
And if he makes say 6.5MM average, that's less than Timonen, Visnovsky, Boyle, and Campbell, tied with Phaneuf and more than Pronger (6.25), Jovo (6.0), Rafalski (6.0), Roszival (6.0), Markov (5.75), Gonchar (5.5), Hamrlik (5.5), Souray (5.5), etc.
I'd say that's fair market value when you compare to the contracts out there.
Kaberle's the one who is currently well under market value, look for him to re-up somewhere in the 5.5-6.0 range |
| Guest9262 |
Posted - 06/26/2009 : 06:46:57
I think Burke will sign Gustavson and Cammalleri. Trade Finger to get up the draft to 4th or 5th and hopefully pick up Brayden Schenn.
Kubina and Kaberle are staying in Toronto, they are both really good defenseman without taking to much cap hit.
IMO Bouwmeester is worth 6 or 7 millions but I don't think Toronto will jump on the race. I think they will strongly go for Gustavson, Cammalleri or maybe the Sedins. Because they need a solid backup who could play around 30 to 35 games and they need first line players.
I think they might go and sign Samuel Pahlson and\or Travis Moen as they both won the Stanley Cup with Brian Burke in Anaheim. They are both solid third liners who know their roles.
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| Rambo2305 |
Posted - 06/26/2009 : 06:07:26
quote:
Originally posted by Guest0981
dead on Beans, there's a reason why he's pretty much considered a lock for the Canadian National team.
Some stats in 6 years in the NHL have been thus:
1) 471 out of a possible 492 games played in 6 seasons(5 seasons without a game missed)
2) 53 goals, 150 assists for a ppg of .431, he's hit 15 goals 2 years in a row. A consistent 40 pt plus guy in the past 4 years on a consistently weak offensive team, most of his minus in +/- came in the first 2 seasons
3) #1 TOI in 08-09 (26:59), #1 TOI in 07-08 (27:28), #8 TOI in 06-07 (26:08), #10 in TOI (25:29)
Internationally he's been on Canada teams since world juniors 2000-2002, seen gold in the World Cup (2004), gold in the World Championships (2003, 2004), and played in a bunch more
He's a horse who's only getting better.
So he's averaging 33 points a season and that qualifies him for 6-7 Million? As for ice-time, that's because he's the number 1 in Florida and they ride him into the ground. On any other team (good team or playoff contender), you would see at least 5 minutes chopped off the ice-time.
If he sign's for 6-7, you'd be comparing him to the likes of Lidstrom, Chara, Rafalski, Kaberle, Phaneuf etc. Ask any coach in the league, they would take one of those guys before they take Bouwmeester...
Like Slozo said, he'll go somewhere and get overpaid, guarantee he doesn't touch 40 points next season, and he'll average 22 minutes a game...
"Most people spend time and energy going around problems, rather than trying to solve them" - Henry Ford |
| n/a |
Posted - 06/26/2009 : 05:23:44
Yeah, I have a feeling someone will overpay for Bouwmeester, and it won't be Burke.
Heard on the morning talk radio show this morning (The Big Early) that insiders say Burke was waiting for Bouwmeester to go somewhere else first, then watch the offers come in for the best available defenceman afterward - Kaberle. But, it hasn't worked out that way so far, and now a supposedly credible offer has come in for Kaberle, just before the draft!
I think Burke will be as opportunistic as the other GMs allow, but you can only make deals that are out there . . . so who the heck knows who is willing to deal their picks? There is talk that the Isles like Duchene as their #1, and TB might pick Hedman over Tavares (I would as well). If that all happens, I can totally see Tavares (#3 pick) to Toronto for Kaberle and another third liner to Colorado.
Or not. 
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Guest0981 |
Posted - 06/25/2009 : 15:18:40
dead on Beans, there's a reason why he's pretty much considered a lock for the Canadian National team.
Some stats in 6 years in the NHL have been thus:
1) 471 out of a possible 492 games played in 6 seasons(5 seasons without a game missed)
2) 53 goals, 150 assists for a ppg of .431, he's hit 15 goals 2 years in a row. A consistent 40 pt plus guy in the past 4 years on a consistently weak offensive team, most of his minus in +/- came in the first 2 seasons
3) #1 TOI in 08-09 (26:59), #1 TOI in 07-08 (27:28), #8 TOI in 06-07 (26:08), #10 in TOI (25:29)
Internationally he's been on Canada teams since world juniors 2000-2002, seen gold in the World Cup (2004), gold in the World Championships (2003, 2004), and played in a bunch more
He's a horse who's only getting better. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 06/25/2009 : 12:22:52
Bouwmeester is definately worth $6-$7 million in my books. He's not just an offensive player. He is solid defensively. He has put up reasonable numbers his entire career and you have to remember that he won't be 26 until September. Most defensemen really don't hit their prime until their early 30's. Bouwmeester's best years are ahead of him. He's played internationally many times as well. And a mobile, scoring, 6'4" 212 lb defensemen who can also shut down the other teams top players?? That's a rare thing. His +/- isn't great (-27 in 451 games) but one also has to remember that he's played his entire career with Florida.
Bouwmeester is, in my opinion, a Top 10 defenseman in the league. There may be some better pure offensive or defensive players on the back end, but when putting both together, Bouwmeester belongs with the best in the game today. He would be an improvement on virtually any team in the league, and save maybe 2 or 3 teams, would be on the top defensive line. |
| Rambo2305 |
Posted - 06/25/2009 : 10:40:21
No one realizes (Leafs fans at least) just how good Kaberle and Kubina are when they are both healthy, and especially when they play together. I mean, how many times did Kubina score to either tie, give the lead or win the game last year?? Also, Kaberle is more then potential, you can't doubt a guy who had 60+ points...Bouwmeester, like him and all, but he's never notched more then 15 goals, honestly, I don't think he's worh 6-7...he's worth 5 at most....does anyone know Bouwmeesters career high in points or +/-??
"Most people spend time and energy going around problems, rather than trying to solve them" - Henry Ford |
| JOSHUACANADA |
Posted - 06/25/2009 : 09:16:10
Spacek Ohlund Aucoin, and Zubov from your list would probably sign for less than Kaberle and have similar potential. Dont get me wrong I like Kaberle and think TO Should keep him and Kubina, it just everyones trade scenerio includes dumping these 2 d-men.
What does TO have for depth past those guys. Schenn, Finger, White and Stralman(who?). Not a bad group but not a group you would want to represent your team in the playoffs. Schenn is pretty young and White had one good year in which his stats were amplified because he plays dual role on forward. I really dont know enough about Finger and Stralman, but have never heard anyone say "how bout that Finger/Stralman player wasn't he something.
If you could pick up Bouwmeester you would still want to have veteran presence with him. Good players learn and feed off of other good players. |
| Guest9838 |
Posted - 06/25/2009 : 08:48:41
JoshuaCanada,
I don't know who you think on the market is a better defenseman for better value (at the same age) as Kaberle. Here are the top flight Dmen UFAs this year:
Bouwmeester (age 25, look to sign for 6-7MM) He will not sign with Atlanta
Niedermayer (age 35, 6.75MM last year) Not going to Atl
Schneider (Age 40, 5.75MM)
Zubov (Age 38, 5.35MM)
Blake (Age 39, 5MM)
Aucoin (Age 35, 4MM)
Ohlund (Age 32, 3.5MM) the only real comparable to Kaberle in age and cost, but I'd say a step down in skill
Spacek (Age 35, 3.33MM)
Other +2MM + 30 year olds include Havelid, Boucher, DeVries, Sydor. Gill
Kaberle (Age 33, 4.25MM, on contract for 2 years)
So who are you talking about that would be better than Kaberle for Atlanta's defense needs for now and the next 4-5 years?? Kalinin, Mara, Foster, Malik? None of these guys are close to Kaberle.
They only slide 3 spots and pick up a premier defenceman... on second though it's too much for the 4th pick alone, Atlanta should throw in a defensive prospect too.
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| Rambo2305 |
Posted - 06/25/2009 : 05:07:49
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4175
sorry forgot to mention after this year toskala's contract ends don't re-sign him go for either hiller or rinne in free agency next year.
G: Rinne/Hiller-Gustavsson
After this season (if he doesn't re-sign)...Roberto Luongo is a UFA. So...hold off on spending money this year to make a strong push next summer? I mean with Nash and Luongo on the market, $12M in cap space can go away real fast in 2010 lol...
However, Burke doesn't like to sit back, look for Gustavsson and Cammelleri to be the 2 big signings this off season for the Leafs. Hopefully Blake can play like he did in the 2nd half last year. Him and Cammy would be a solid duo, even throw in Poni, might actually have a legit 1st line...
P.S. Sensfan101...Leafs will finish 6th, Sens 8th, Habs 11th....
"Most people spend time and energy going around problems, rather than trying to solve them" - Henry Ford |
| Guest9235 |
Posted - 06/25/2009 : 01:06:16
quote:
Originally posted by Guest4175
I think Burke should go hard for Bouwmeester this year, sign Gustavsson and if he can trade up great, if he can't hope either schenn or MPS drop to 7 and take him. Also try and package a deal around kaberle and our first rounder next year plus a few throw ins poni, pogge for Lecavalier if Tampa really wants to trade his 10 M salary. Finish out of the playoffs again this coming season. Sign either kovalchuk or Nash next year and also Boogard. By the start of 2010 season kubina, vanryn, stempniak, stajan, and mayers contract would be up with the leafs let them all go.
2010 ROSTER
L1: MPS/Schenn-Lecavalier-Nash/Kovalchuk
L2: Hagman-Grabovski-Tlusty
L3: Kulemin-Bozak-Blake
L4: Hanson-Mitchell-Boogard
D1: White-Bouwmeester
D2: Kaberle-Schenn
D3: Stralman-Finger
G: Toskala, Gustavsson
I think itd take a little more to get lecavalier from the bolts, as for the rest of it, if Burke can manage that, I will no longer hate him and will praise him(Im an Oilers fan btw) |
| Guest4175 |
Posted - 06/24/2009 : 21:24:34
sorry forgot to mention after this year toskala's contract ends don't re-sign him go for either hiller or rinne in free agency next year.
G: Rinne/Hiller-Gustavsson |
| Guest4175 |
Posted - 06/24/2009 : 21:22:44
I think Burke should go hard for Bouwmeester this year, sign Gustavsson and if he can trade up great, if he can't hope either schenn or MPS drop to 7 and take him. Also try and package a deal around kaberle and our first rounder next year plus a few throw ins poni, pogge for Lecavalier if Tampa really wants to trade his 10 M salary. Finish out of the playoffs again this coming season. Sign either kovalchuk or Nash next year and also Boogard. By the start of 2010 season kubina, vanryn, stempniak, stajan, and mayers contract would be up with the leafs let them all go.
2010 ROSTER
L1: MPS/Schenn-Lecavalier-Nash/Kovalchuk
L2: Hagman-Grabovski-Tlusty
L3: Kulemin-Bozak-Blake
L4: Hanson-Mitchell-Boogard
D1: White-Bouwmeester
D2: Kaberle-Schenn
D3: Stralman-Finger
G: Toskala, Gustavsson |
| Sensfan101 |
Posted - 06/24/2009 : 12:08:29
rebuild unable to trade up has to stay at seventh Pick takes Jared Cowen trades either kaberle and Kubina for Picks/Prospects very quiet in free agency
Leafs finish 14th in East 27 overall
You miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take Wayne Gretzky |
| JOSHUACANADA |
Posted - 06/24/2009 : 11:53:36
Annoit, himself the hockey Pope and hope the hockey savior comes to him. All of the scenerios proposed about TO are far fetched. JT is the most coveted player since Crosby and Hedman is not far behind him. Any D-men Atlanta needs or wants, they could get better or cheaper thru free agency than TO could offer.
Why do you guys want to get rid of your bluechip d-men? Kubina, White and Kaberle dont seem too bad to me. Is it because you don't have anything else to offer other teams? I say he uses his 7th pick for Kane if available, signs Cammelleri, resigns Gerber and lets most of his other FA go. He will pick up non household names to stock the cupboard for depth. You wont know who they are for a half a season, but will tell me their skate size come February. |
| Guest9838 |
Posted - 06/24/2009 : 09:48:13
One other note, Bouwmeester if he comes here is handed the "C" immediately. |
| Guest9838 |
Posted - 06/24/2009 : 09:42:27
What does Burke do... how about this scenario:
Burke does not resign: May, Ondrus, Newbury, Hamilton, Battaglia, Deveraux, Reitz (D), Howard (D), and the obvious old trio of goalies
Burke finds a trading partner in Atlanta (4th spot), trades Kaberle and 7th pick for the 4th and a prospect, this locks down Atlanta's Defence and they still get a 7th pick (Magnus Paarjarvi Svensson or Kulikov maybe hoping Kulikov could keep Kovalchuk in town with more russians and a better team).
Burke uses the 4th pick to draft Kane or Schenn
Burke trades Kubina + Stralman to Nashville for the 11th Pick and draft Ryan Ellis to restock the D, or Zach Kassian as he seems to be Burke type of guy.
Burke presses very hard to sign Bouwmeester, if he defies the odds and is successful his 2009/2010 D looks like this:
Bouwmeester, Van Ryn
Schenn, Finger
White, Frogren
Call ups: Oreskovic, Harrison, Sifers, Ellis (maybe)
Burke then signs tough spare part Andrew Peters for the 4th line. Not sure if he'll be able to get very many star forwards to T.O.
If he can't the forwards would start the year like this:
Blake Grabovski Kulemin
Hagman Stajan Stempniak
Hanson Tlusty Kane/Schenn
Peters Mitchell Mayers
Call ups: Bozak, Williams, Deveaux, DiDomenico, Stefanovich, Stalberg, Stapleton, Hayes
He'll sign some decent goalie if not the "Monster" maybe a Biron caliber guy to tandem with Toskala.
At the trade deadline the leafs will probably once again be in the 8th - 10th slot, Burke could then make a play for one of 2010's free agents to push for the playoffs, perhaps Nash if clb is out of the race, Frolov from LA if he can't land one of the big boys. Not sure what he'd give up though.
T.O. ends up in a dogfight to place 7th - 10th. Can't say they'd make the playoffs though. |
| Rambo2305 |
Posted - 06/24/2009 : 07:21:13
Ok...Toronto has a lot of cap space to play with and have shown strong interest in hometown kid Mike Cammelleri, also, the Sedins have already stated their terms, and right now, Vancouver and Toronto are the front runners (less years though). Throw in the fact that the "Monster" Gustavsson has been spending a lot of time in T.O. and a lot of time on local sports shows.
Forgot to mention, we still have the 7th pick...so even if we draft up and give up a couple players (adding to the cap space)...we still have the option to bring in some snipers, d-men etc.
P.S. Toronto will finish 6th in 2009-2010 
"Most people spend time and energy going around problems, rather than trying to solve them" - Henry Ford |
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