| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| shazariahl |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 22:55:46
I was watching my Ultimate Gretzky DVD set, and Wayne said in it he thought the 50 goals in 39 games would be hardest for anyone to beat. However, that got me thinking, and I think he has some that may be even harder.
In particualr, I think his 163 assists in a season. No one has ever come close to that again, not even Wayne himself. These days no one has even come close to 163 points, let alone that many assists. The 215 points in a season is another that seems absolutely untouchable, though to be fair Gretzky did come close to that several other times, and Mario put up 199 which isn't too far back. Career assists maybe? A player breaking into the NHL today would need basically 100 assists per season for a 20 year career to break that. Consider than in all hockey history, aside from Gretzky only Orr (102), and Lemieux (114) have even broken 100 assists, and each did it once only. To average that for 20 years seems impossible. What about 92 goals in a season?
He has so many that could be never beaten that it becomes hard to judge. But I think some (like career playoff points) may be eventually broken if someone can stay on a dominant team, play long enough, and consistently make the playoffs.
So anyways, what do you guys think would be the single hardest record of his to break? Is it one I mentioned, or another one entirely? Any opinions are welcome.
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| 15 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 09/08/2009 : 11:56:41
I agree with the list that Slozo first posted with 8 records which are very unlikely to be broken. I would also add the 50 in 39 but that's beside the point.
However, the reason I say that the single season goal record is possible is for a number of reasons. Firstly, it's not much more then a goal a game to get there. Although it has not happened often, 50 goals in 50 games or less is not unheard of. Even more if you include those guys who got 50 goals in 50 games played but it was more the 50 games the team played.
Secondly, of any rules or changes to the game that are likely, smaller goalie pads is plausible. It has been discussed for years and the brilliant minds in the NHL seem to think that scoring means entertainment.
Thirdly, a guy did a study on Ovechkin's 65 goal season and said that comparatively (goals/game)to Gretkzy in 81-82(the 92 goal campain) Ovechkin's 65 would have been 91.5. However, extrapolating Gretzky's 92 goals in 81-82 into today and it's 130 goals in a season.
However, if the goal pads are reduced down to 80's sizes again, it becomes posssible. There are players in the game today that I think would have seen 70, 80, and maybe even 90 goal seasons in the 80's.
Unlike 163 assists in a season (That's having 4-40 goal scorers on a team and having one player assist on every single goal for all 4 players) or 215 points in a season (That's assisting on every goal for 4-4 0goal players plus scoring 50+ goals). Those two will never happen agian. Ever. Goals, although highly unlikely, is the most reasonable to think will get broken. |
| n/a |
Posted - 09/08/2009 : 11:29:00
Brett Hull didn't quite do it in the 3 years he took a run at it, no. But, I would argue that the conditions could have been better, in that he could have had a bit more all-around skill. No one is arguing that there was anyone with a better slapshot from the point, he was wicked, yes. But on the rush, he was good, but not great, and in terms of goal scoring, without a talented playmaker, Hull was relegated from phenomenal to very good.
I contend that if all these "right conditions" happen for a player of Ovechkin's or Kovalchuk's exceptional skill level (they can score well in all situations, just like Gretzky or Mario could), that the record could be in jeopardy one of these years. The problem with these "right conditions" is that it's not 1992 anymore scoring wise, we need smaller goalie pads!
Anyways, I don't think 92 goals will fall in my lifetime either, probably not. But I give it a small chance. But the career goals? Even if Ovechkin kept scoring like he is now, with slightly diminishing returns his last 5-7 years (goal scoring usually falls off dramatically with age) giving him a huge 50 goals per year average; and if he does that for an above average 15 years; he still comes up short at 750 goals. The assists, as others pointed out, is worse - a 100 assist average is required during your prime years to even think about approaching that record, it's just unthinkable at this time. And together of course, the career points - it's simply one of those untouchable records.
By mathematical means and logic, career points, assists and goals (in that order) would have to be the most untouchable records.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| leigh |
Posted - 09/08/2009 : 10:23:14
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
And Leigh . . . you forgot how close Brett Hull came, 86 goals in 90/91. Playing with Oates, he had amazing A level skill, had awesome chemistry, and had a year where everything went right . . . and he did come awful close, 6 goals away is nothing to scoff at.
Who knows, maybe the league starts enforcing clutching and grabbing again, Ovechkin and Backstrom become the new Hull and Oates, and maybe, just maybe, Ovechkin has the luckiest year he'll ever have? It's at least a faint possibility.
Yes, I cannot wait until hockey starts again. 
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
Hi Slozo, your argument could easily be used to support mine as well. Add Brett Hull to my list of pure goal scorers who couldn't do it under a perfect scenario.
Although I don't think I'll seee G's career goals record fall either, I do think that it is more likely. I can see a guy like Ovechkin scoring 40 to 70 goals every season for 15 or 20 years if he's lucky enough to stay healthy. |
| Odin |
Posted - 09/07/2009 : 10:45:33
I agree with Leigh. I do think that 92 goals in a year is off the charts and will stand the longest test of time. There will be some who get close from time to time, but getting more than a goal a game over the course of an entire season is just insane. A few have done it, and a few more will, but I feel they will always come up short of 92.
The second for me would be the assists. Averaging over 2 per game over an entire season is also insane.
And I guess THAT, by default, makes it the career goals and assists because of the consistency. Unless somebody plays into their fifties. |
| n/a |
Posted - 09/05/2009 : 22:55:47
And Leigh . . . you forgot how close Brett Hull came, 86 goals in 90/91. Playing with Oates, he had amazing A level skill, had awesome chemistry, and had a year where everything went right . . . and he did come awful close, 6 goals away is nothing to scoff at.
Who knows, maybe the league starts enforcing clutching and grabbing again, Ovechkin and Backstrom become the new Hull and Oates, and maybe, just maybe, Ovechkin has the luckiest year he'll ever have? It's at least a faint possibility.
Yes, I cannot wait until hockey starts again.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| n/a |
Posted - 09/05/2009 : 22:19:56
I disagree, Leigh. It's all about probability and chance, really. Mathematical.
The number of games to achieve the all-time records is huge . . . we are talking over a thousand games at least, right? So, the odds that any talented player to even reach the longevity needed, and maintain their point producing, is very slim already.
The season records, even the impressive ones like 92 goals, are just 82 games away from being broken every year, however. Your example of Selanne getting close, and all of us thinking (I thought it too at the time) "wow, this kid has phenomenal skill, maybe next year or the year after he has a chance at 99's record!" is a good one of just what I am talking about.
Scoring takes skill, yes . . . but scoring 76 as a rookie, and then never scoring more than 52 afterward . . . well, we can say it was Selanne's torn achilles tendon in his second season, but looking at the numbers, he was never near the pace he had his first year. That rookie season, everything just went in.
All we need to happen to break the 92 goal record is have a player have an out of this world year where . . . everything goes in. More than a goal a game pace, play a full season. Obviously, the player would already have to have the A list goal scoring skills, have a good linemate with chemistry, be on a winning team perhaps, etc etc. And, they'd need luck.
But only luck for 82 games . . . as opposed to a career.
I give guys like Ovechkin and Kovalchuk a bigger chance to score 93 goals than I do Crosby, Malkin or Ovechkin ever playing enough and scoring enough points to get to 2,857 . . . I don't think either record is in jeapardy; but I'd lay much better odds on 92 goals getting broken first.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Guest9686 |
Posted - 09/05/2009 : 18:51:54
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
All that being said then, I say the career marks are the toughest, in order of hardest to break:
1. All-time assists (1,962, M.Messier 2nd with 1,171)
2. All-time points (2,856 - M.Messier 2nd with 1,855)
3. All-time goals (894, G.Howe 2nd with 801)
I'm going to agree with this. These numbers are just ridiculous. Let's say you a superstar is guaranteed to play 20 years in the league.
The average goals or assists (hence total points) to come close to Gretz total is ~45 goals a year and ~100 assists per year, for an average of 145 points a year for 20 years. Yeah folks that is 45 goals and 100 assists every year from 18 years old until the 38 years old. There may be some day a player with the exceptional offensive gift but they will not likely be blessed with the longevity (already saw him in Lemieux).
The combination of exceptional offensive skill and longevity ever happening again is astronimically high. Gordie Howe, Joe Sakic, Steve Yzerman and Mark Messier exceptional longevity but (gasp!!) does not meet the criteria for exceptional offensive skill. Even if there are changes to the rules that induces more offensive production these records will stand as unreachable. |
| leigh |
Posted - 09/05/2009 : 14:45:11
Well I don't really know all of the Gretzky records off by heart, but, I think the likely candidate for never being broken is 92 goals in a single season. I just can't fathom someone, even Ovechkin, beating that. To substantiate my opinion take a look at some of the game's great modern era goal scorers in comparison...
We were all so amazed by Ovechkin getting 65 a couple years ago and it is indeed a massive feat but he gets his goals in part though brute force. I speculate that he just can't keep that up beyond a few more years. So it stands to reason that he has to do it within the next few years while his body can take the punishment. But comparing 65 goals to 92 means that he is still has to increase his production by almost 50% to achieve what Gretzky did in 81/82!
Now look at when Selanne pulled off 76 in his rookie year - unreal! I remember thinking that this guy might be able to do it...but alas, no dice (although he did suffer from injuries in the early part of his career when he had a chance - but hey, that's part of the game - surviving) So even with 76 goals Selanne is still 17% off G's pace.
And how about Mike Bossy, perhaps the game's most prolific scorer; the guy never scored less than 50 goals in his entire 10 year career (ok except for his final season where he got 38 in 67 - due to severe back injuries) His best year was only 69 goals (did I just say "only"? haha!) Great? Yes! But not even close.
Bobby Orr, the greatest offensive defenseman to ever live...never broke 50: probably would have if he played as a forward...woulda, coulda, shoulda...the point is, it didn't happen.
And finally, in my opinion the greatest offensively gifted player to ever play, Mario Lemieux. He played with some extremely talented players; was born with some of the most incredible talents imagineable; and played in a high scoring era. Well Super Mario peaked at 85 goals in 76 games. Even if you averaged it out over a full 80 games (that was what the NHL played in 1982 when Gretzky got the record) he still would only have reached 89 goals. If you pushed it to 82 games he still would not have broken it.
Crosby is unlikely to do it and Tavares probably won't either, so that leaves absolutely no one I can think of. I suppose it is possible that some kid will come along with the gifts of Lemieux, the heart of Gretzky, and the power of Ovechkin and break the record, but there is no one in the league today who will even come close.
In summary I doubt I'll see 92 goals in a single season again in my lifetime. I'm glad to have witnessed it the first, the only, and probably the last time in the history of the game as we know it.
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| shazariahl |
Posted - 09/04/2009 : 00:21:57
50 career hat tricks seems pretty insane too. So does 51 game point scoring streak from the start of season. Career goals is maybe beatable, but I think career points (and assists in particular) will stand for the rest of my lifetime. |
| redneck76ca |
Posted - 09/03/2009 : 19:35:15
quote:
Originally posted by slozo
Well, we'll see . . . a goal scoring talent like Ovechkin only comes by once every ten years or so, but so much depends on health, and if that player can keep their current level of production up at current high levels. Back in the day, people looked at guys like Selanne and Bure and gave them a chance to break the all time goals record or goals in a season . . . and they never came close.
Thing is, a guy like Kovalchuk or Heatley, both maybe a tiny step down from Ovechkin, could easily surpass him in career goals - all that would have to happen is one or two injuries, and the opportunity is gone.
All that being said then, I say the career marks are the toughest, in order of hardest to break:
1. All-time assists (1,962, M.Messier 2nd with 1,171)
2. All-time points (2,856 - M.Messier 2nd with 1,855)
3. All-time goals (894, G.Howe 2nd with 801)
(I would also include the all-time assists, points and goals including playoffs there as well)
4. Most consecutive 100 point seasons: 13 (6 players tied with 6)
5. Most assists in a season: 163 (M.Lemieux with 114)
6. Most 100 or more point seasons: 15 (M.Lemieux 2nd with 10)
7. Most points in a season: 215 (M.Lemieux with 199)
8. Most goals in a season: 92 (M.Lemieux with 85)
Most likely record to fall in the next ten or 15 years?
My vote is for most 40 goal seasons (12), and most 50 goal seasons (tied with Bossy, 9).
Ovechkin - 4 years in NHL, 4 over 40, 3 over 50.
Kovalchuk - 7 years in NHL, 5 over 40
Heatley - 7 years in NHL, 4 over 40, 2 50s
If these guys can stay healthy and productive at their current level for another 8 or 9 years . . . I say there are three good chances for the most seasons with 40 or more, and one very good chance in Ovechkin for most 50 goal seasons.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
I agree with Slozo when it comes to the consecutive season overs 40 goals and number of 50 goal seasons. I think the OV will contend in this Dept. and that Heatley and Kovalchuk have shots at them as well. As far as Ovechkin is concerned, I think that he has the potential to put up some low 70's goal scoring campaigns. If Backstrom is who he is supposed to be and continues to develop as a play making center then we are going to see some sick scoring campaigns by Alexander the Great. |
| Axey |
Posted - 09/03/2009 : 19:26:21
When there is a world war and the best players are called off to fight for their country(Like WWII), only then will we see his records broken.. and that will only be single season records. I can't see someone breaking them until there is a new strategy found that allows something like this to happen. |
| n/a |
Posted - 09/03/2009 : 11:06:16
Well, we'll see . . . a goal scoring talent like Ovechkin only comes by once every ten years or so, but so much depends on health, and if that player can keep their current level of production up at current high levels. Back in the day, people looked at guys like Selanne and Bure and gave them a chance to break the all time goals record or goals in a season . . . and they never came close.
Thing is, a guy like Kovalchuk or Heatley, both maybe a tiny step down from Ovechkin, could easily surpass him in career goals - all that would have to happen is one or two injuries, and the opportunity is gone.
All that being said then, I say the career marks are the toughest, in order of hardest to break:
1. All-time assists (1,962, M.Messier 2nd with 1,171)
2. All-time points (2,856 - M.Messier 2nd with 1,855)
3. All-time goals (894, G.Howe 2nd with 801)
(I would also include the all-time assists, points and goals including playoffs there as well)
4. Most consecutive 100 point seasons: 13 (6 players tied with 6)
5. Most assists in a season: 163 (M.Lemieux with 114)
6. Most 100 or more point seasons: 15 (M.Lemieux 2nd with 10)
7. Most points in a season: 215 (M.Lemieux with 199)
8. Most goals in a season: 92 (M.Lemieux with 85)
Most likely record to fall in the next ten or 15 years?
My vote is for most 40 goal seasons (12), and most 50 goal seasons (tied with Bossy, 9).
Ovechkin - 4 years in NHL, 4 over 40, 3 over 50.
Kovalchuk - 7 years in NHL, 5 over 40
Heatley - 7 years in NHL, 4 over 40, 2 50s
If these guys can stay healthy and productive at their current level for another 8 or 9 years . . . I say there are three good chances for the most seasons with 40 or more, and one very good chance in Ovechkin for most 50 goal seasons.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 09/03/2009 : 08:44:21
quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
There are a few that I think will not be broken, at least in my life time. The 163 assists is one, 50 in 39 is another, career assists and points will also not be broken.
The one I can see happening and what I would expect to see in the next 3-5 years is 92 goals in a season. Ovechkin will take that down. I also think that when everything is said and done, Ovechkin (if he stays reasonably healthy) will take Gretzky's career goals record as well.
Ovechkin's definitely got a shot at the career goals record, as you said, if he stays healthy. I think the 50 in 39 is even possible, even moreso than the 92 for the year. To do the 92 in a season, he'd have to be close to that 50/39 pace for the entire year! Not quite at that pace, but not far off. AO's a stud and may make a run at one or more of these records, but i still think there's gotta be a rule change or two whether it's more restrictions on the goalie equipment or changes to the power plays (4 vs 4) or something. If the rules stay as they are today, those records appear to be pretty safe. |
| Beans15 |
Posted - 09/03/2009 : 08:21:50
There are a few that I think will not be broken, at least in my life time. The 163 assists is one, 50 in 39 is another, career assists and points will also not be broken.
The one I can see happening and what I would expect to see in the next 3-5 years is 92 goals in a season. Ovechkin will take that down. I also think that when everything is said and done, Ovechkin (if he stays reasonably healthy) will take Gretzky's career goals record as well. |
| Alex116 |
Posted - 09/02/2009 : 23:07:37
Without looking up his MANY records, from the ones you've mentioned, i'd have to say the career assist mark (or career points). My reason for this is simple. Who knows what sort of changes will be made in the future to open up the game. For someone to get to the career assists or points mark, they not only have to average some really sick yearly numbers, they must stay healthy long term!
Have to say though, if no drastic changes are made over the years, i think you'll see 99's name plastered all over the record book for a loooooonnnnnnggggg time! |
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