It looked at statistical trends for the season following a trophy win and discussed how the 2007-08 trophy winners should fare if they followed the trend. It also included my own predictions.
I thought it was time to take a look at how these trends and predictions played out in the 2008-09 NHL season.
HART TROPHY (most valuable player) 2007-08 winner-Alex Ovechkin. I wrote- "If the trend for Hart Trophy winners continues and Ovechkin experiences a similar dip in PPG he would score 99-100 points in 2008-09 if he plays all 82 games. Throw that trend away- a healthy Ovechkin will score 110-115 points in 2008-09." What Ovechkin did- Scored 110 points. Accuracy- Hit this one on the head by throwing the trend away and going with my gut feeling.
VEZINA TROPHY (outstanding goaltender) 2007-08 winner-Martin Brodeur I wrote- "If the trend (for Vezina winners) continues- Brodeur will record 40-42 wins in 2008-09. His backup- Kevin Weekes- could possibly see more action. This would reduce Brodeur's wins and Weekes' splinters." What Brodeur did- Due to injury, Brodeur played in only 31 games in 2008-09. Weekes did see more action- 16 games as opposed to the 9 games he appeared in the previous year- but it was Scott Clemmensen who shone in Brodeur's absense. Accuracy- Brodeur did not record the wins that the trend suggested he would but his injury threw all predictions out of whack.
NORRIS TROPHY (outstanding defenseman) 2007-08 winner-Nicklas Lidstrom I wrote- "The only trend here is Nicklas Lidstrom's consistency. That's why he has won the Norris Trophy for the last three years. Look for more of the same from as far as point production in 2008-09 and don't discount another Norris Trophy win." What Lidstrom did- Scored 59 points. Accuracy- Had scored 80,62 and 70 points the previous three years so 59 points is not that much of a dip.
CALDER TROPHY (rookie-of-the-year) 2007-08 winner-Patrick Kane I wrote- "Malkin scored 14 more goals, 7 more assists and 21 more points in his sophomore season. Ovechkin scored 6 goals and 8 assists less in his second season. You can do your own math here but I expect Kane's sophomore season to be more "Malkin-like" than "Ovechkin-like". Look for Kane to improve his numbers and score 25-30 goals,55-60 assists and 80-90 points." What Kane did- Scored 25 goals and 45 assists for 70 points. Accuracy- Kane barely reached the goal range I projected for him and fell short of the point total I envisioned for him.
LADY BYNG TROPHY (sportsmanship and gentlemanly play) 2007-08 winner-Pavel Datsyuk I wrote- "Datsyuk had seasons of 87, 87 and 97 points in these three Lady Bying winning years. His penalty totals were 22, 20 and 20 minutes during these years. Like Nicklas Lidstrom, Datsyuk is a consistent Red Wing. Could crack the 100-point barrier in 2008-09." What Datsyuk did- Scored 97 points and had 22 penalty minutes. Accuracy- "Bang on" for his consistency- for both points and penalty minutes but didn't crack the 100-point barrier like I said he could.
BILL MASTERTON MEMORIAL TROPHY (perseverance,sportsmanship and dedication to hockey) 2007-08 winner-Jason Blake I wrote- "Selanne and Kessel increased their point totals by 4 and 8 the season after they won the Masterton. Selanne's PPG went up .02 and Kessel's .04 the next year. If the trend for Masterton Trophy winners continues as far as points Blake should score 56-60 points in 2008-09. If it continues as far as PPG (points-per-game) he should score 53-55 points this year. I would peg him at 50-55 points." What Blake did- Scored 25 goals and 38 assists for 63 points. Accuracy- Missed on the predictions for Blake because he exceeded the trend for point total increases and PPG increases by Masterton Trophy winners.
FRANK SELKE TROPHY (outstanding defensive forward) 2007-08-Pavel Datsyuk. I wrote- "As with the Norris Trophy winner (Lidstrom) there is a lot of consistency in the winners of the Selke Trophy. Look for Datsyuk to post similar or improved numbers..." What Datsyuk did- Scored 97 points for the second straight season. Accuracy- Right on the mark for Datsyuk prediction.
MAURICE "ROCKET" RICHARD TROPHY (leading goal scorer) 2007-08-Alex Ovechkin (65 goals). I wrote- "Previous winners Cheechoo and Lecavalier scored 19 and 12 goals less in the season following their Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy win. If the trend for winners of this trophy continues, Ovechkin would score 46-53 goals in 2008-09. Trend aside, I'd say Ovechkin will score 60-65 goals this season." What Ovechkin did- Scored 56 goals. Accuracy- Ovechkin's goal total fell right between the trend for winners of this trophy and my "trend aside" prediction.
How will the 2008-09 trophy winners fare in 2009-10?
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