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admin
Forum Admin
Canada
2341 Posts |
 Posted - 05/15/2011 : 10:13:03
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Poll Question:
Will the Sedins return to regular season form in the Conference Finals?
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2011 : 12:27:37
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I don't really think this question is fair, as I will now pose a question back to you, admin:
What percentage of ANY player is at regular season form, right now?
Scoring goes down in the playoffs; it's tighter checking, and the 7 game series match-ups get perfected by the second or third game with all the strategising - especially against the top line.
When looking at all the top line players in the playoffs in total, I would wager less than 25% are at their regular season scoring rate, with just one or two or three above it. That's why I always like to pick the top second and third liners for my playoff pools.
San Jose plays Vancouver pretty well, and they will put up a full court press on the Sedins. My guess is, it absolutely does not matter if the Sedins do exactly as they did last series, IF they also shut down San Jose's top line of Thornton and Heatley.
The key to me is Kesler potentially outscoring the top line he is most likely put out against, and I tihnk that is what might win the series for Vancouver. And when they switch to try shutting down Kesler, it's a 4 point night for both Sedins probably.
My vote is . . . unfair question, since you can't expect your top line to put up the same numbers as the regular season for every match-up in the cup run.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Lunchbox
Top Prospect
Canada
88 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2011 : 13:45:39
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Slozo, I gotta disagree with you saying the question isn't fair as the question isn't "Will the Sedin's score at the same pace as in the regular season?" I think a "return to form" doesn't necessarily mean scoring alone. The Sedins obviously play a puck possession game, and in the first two series', the Sedins weren't dominating quite as much in this regard as in the regular season. The cycle often broke down, and those blind passes often got intercepted or blocked. They just didn't look as "magical" as hey can during a season.
As you said, if they can dominate the line they play against, it wont matter, but they do need to dominate, at least in a puck possession sense. They dont nessessarily need to light it up, but a few plus or even games (as opposed to the dysmal +/- numbers they have now) from the Sedins and I will consider it a return to form, even if they don't score over a point per game. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2011 : 14:38:53
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+1 Lunchbox.
The Sedin's have simply not been very Sedin-like since game 3 vs CHI. Scoring or not, one thing they definitely do all the time is play a very good puck possession game, have a great cycle, and create scoring chances for everyone else on the ice. They have not done that consistently since game 3 vs CHI.
I do believe that the problem is Hank, and I also suspect that he is injured in some fashion - he simply hasn't been himself at all, which brings Daniel down. Also playing long stretches with Samuelsson who was clearly injured in the late stages of CHI and finally went down for good vs NSH also didn't help. Once Burrows went back on that line you could see them getting back to old fashion, so I have hopes.
But if Hank really is injured, and is not over it yet, this line will continue to suffer. Which doesn't bode well for VAN. |
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doublechamp7
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
278 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2011 : 14:41:54
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Im saying neither will, because I think both have to return to their form for them to be fully functional to be at their best and I think Henrik is injured, limting his abilities.
Bring back the Jets! |
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Guest8149
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Posted - 05/15/2011 : 21:11:48
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Slozo - I don't agree!
There are many examples of players who bring their play to another level in the playoffs. Of recent note, look at Franzen or Clowe, and before that, look at at a guy like Claude Lemieux. But there are lots of examples.
I will agree about one thing. Playoff hockey is a different level than regular season hockey. Some players elevate their play during the playoffs, and some do not.
I actually have more respect for players who maintain their intensity level regardless of whether it's regular season hockey or playoff hockey, and an example of that is the greatest player who ever played - Wayne Gretzky. He never took a night off, and while he has incredible success (and statistics) during the regular season, his stats in the playoffs are just as great. And to me, that's greatness in a hockey player! |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 05/15/2011 : 22:11:58
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| well, the Sedin's looked pretty good tonight, especially Hank. Whatever was ailing him vs NSH seems to be gone, he was quick, looked strong on the puck, and was passing with confidence. We'll see if they can climb back into scoring form through this series now. |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2011 : 06:55:07
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest8149
Slozo - I don't agree!
There are many examples of players who bring their play to another level in the playoffs. Of recent note, look at Franzen or Clowe, and before that, look at at a guy like Claude Lemieux. But there are lots of examples.
I will agree about one thing. Playoff hockey is a different level than regular season hockey. Some players elevate their play during the playoffs, and some do not.
I actually have more respect for players who maintain their intensity level regardless of whether it's regular season hockey or playoff hockey, and an example of that is the greatest player who ever played - Wayne Gretzky. He never took a night off, and while he has incredible success (and statistics) during the regular season, his stats in the playoffs are just as great. And to me, that's greatness in a hockey player!
Those guys you mentioned were and are not top line guys, getting the benefit of a defensive and/or forward match-up designed solely to stop them from scoring points. A top line guy gets the most attention, and is often shut down to minimal production in the playoffs.
I don't want you guys to get me wrong - even when the top line isn't producing as much as normal, they should be producing SOMETHING - and they should always be a threat, one that continues to receive #1 checking line attention. I just feel that, so far (even before last night's game where Henrik looked quite good), they have indeed done that - otherwise, Kesler would not be able to have done what he's done.
Before last night:
Henrik Sedin - 9 pts in 13 games
Daniel Sedin - 10 pts in 13 games
That's not too bad. No, it's not Crosby numbers . . . but who else puts up stats like that? Remember as well, that Nashville is a top defensive team, and they had a goalie in net playing amazing . . . so the numbers were sure to take a dip. Look for a further resurgence against San Jose, a team that is slightly easier to score against.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2011 : 08:39:44
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Slozo, I would present the argument of how can the 1st and 3rd leading scorers in the regular season be in the 25th and 28th position in the playoffs(before last night)?? One would expect more from the reigning Art Ross winners. They should be near the top of the scoring race, not near the bottom!
In the playoffs, your best players have to be your best players. The Sedins get paid for one thing and one thing only and that is producing points. If they are not producing, they are worthless as they are very one-dimensional players. Vancouver is very lucky to have a guy like Kesler who can carry the load and solid team depth to compensate for the Sedin's lack of production. To answer the question of who else puts up stats like that is quite simple. Kesler, Ward, Giroux, Datsuyk, St. Louis, Thornton, Clowe, Purcell, Bergeron, Boyle, Couture, Lecavalier, Downie, Marchand, Horton, Krejci, Cammalleria, Ehrhoff, Ovechkin. They all have as many or more points than either of the Sedins and many played in fewer games. I get that Vancouver was playing Nashville, so how does Kesler and Ehrhoff still produce???
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2011 : 09:15:39
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quote:
I get that Vancouver was playing Nashville, so how does Kesler and Ehrhoff still produce???
This is why teams with depth win in the playoffs. If you can field a team with 2 solid scoring threat lines, and a third line that is very good as well, you should be able to beat most teams.
NSH had enough manpower to effectively shut down 1 line, which they did - the Sedin line. In that series, Kesler was not facing top defenders (nor tasked with shutting down another top centre), so he can take over the scoring, which he did. By the time NSH switched Weber and Suter over to the Kesler line, it was too late.
SJ now has a difficult decision, they have 2 potentially explosive lines to protect against. They did a pretty good job against Kesler's line last night (they were good but not spectacular), but now the Sedin's seem freed up a bit more, and they did some scoring. And the 3rd line continues to look dangerous at times as well. |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2011 : 10:35:01
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"In the playoffs, your best players have to be your best players."
I know this phrase is repeated ad nauseum in the playoffs, but really, it's just not true. Many or some of your best players should be your best players, sure - but not all.
So . . . who are Vancouver's best players then, Beans?
Daniel Sedin
Henrik Sedin
Ryan Kesler
Ehrhoff (d)
Guess who the top 4 point getters are for Vancouver this playoffs so far? They are switched around by a point here or there . . . but really, all of Vancouver's best players have been their best players.
To give perspective, Toews last year finished as the Conn Smythe winner and got 29 pts in 22 games . . . yet, in the 6 game series against Philadelphia, he only picked up 3 assists. Was he effective against Philly? I would say so, since they had to concentrate on shutting him down specifically, and that let others (Kane, Sharp) have a bit better chance without the prime attention.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2011 : 12:01:05
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It appears the player's value is the disagreement. Sure, the Sedin's are 3rd and 4th in scoring for Vancouver, but in the regular season they were 1 and 2 and by a wide margin. Secondly, your point of Toews is not comparable in the least. Toews (like Kesler) is one of the best 2 way forwards in the NHL. If he is not scoring, does he bring something else to the table?? Absolutely. No different than Kesler in the series against Chicago this year. When Kesler was called upon to shut down Chicago's big line his offensive performance suffers.
So, I ask you this, if the Sedin's are not scoring, what value do they bring to the Canucks?? Are you saying they are high priced decoys and that is what they bring to the table??
Your best players all have to be playing their best to win the Cup. That does not mean all your best players score as they are not all scorers. But when your best players do nothing but score and are not scoring, then what?? |
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Guest4178
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Posted - 05/16/2011 : 13:50:31
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I agree with Beans. For the Sedins to be .70 or .75 points per game thus far in the playoffs is not enough.
What's more surprising (aside from the lack of points production) is their plus/minus stats. I don't put a lot of weight on this stat, but in context, it has some relevance.
The Sedins held very high plus/minus ratings during the regular season (+30 for Daniel, and +26 for Henrik), but in the playoffs, they are both sitting at -8! And where does this put them? Well, out of 335 players who have suited up for the playoffs thus far, they are exactly 334th and 335th. Yes – dead last!
Granted, the bottom 100 players barely registered enough shifts to risk a -8 plus/minus rating, but take out the bottom 100 players or 200 players, and the Sedins are still last. For the Sedins to sit dead last in this category must surely be a concern.
I think it's an aberration though. It's rare for elite players to slump to this extent, so I suspect we will see improved numbers from the Sedins to finish up this series. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2011 : 14:05:05
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quote:
I agree with Beans. For the Sedins to be .70 or .75 points per game thus far in the playoffs is not enough.
I've been hearing since game 4 of the first round that its not enough for the Sedin's to only score at the rate they're scoring - but VAN managed to get through CHI, then beat NSH (mostly without the Sedin's I might add), and now here we are in round 3, up 1-0 in that round to boot.
This team is not a 1-line team, nor is it built entirely on a strong offensive output. As much as the Sedin's have excelled in this past season, the reality is that VAN has benefited from a very well balanced attack and an extremely steady defense. Any one of several players can step up any night to take the offensive reins, and we've seen several examples of it all postseason long. They are capable of playing with 1-goal leads, and appear to be comfortable playing games in that position - God knows they've had a ton of practice recently.
I will certainly agree that if they continue to chip in 1-2 points per series a-la NSH, they will likely not win it all. But if they can maintain .75 PPG through the playoffs, I still like this team to win it all.
quote:
What's more surprising (aside from the lack of points production) is their plus/minus stats. I don't put a lot of weight on this stat, but in context, it has some relevance.
The Sedin's +/- can be mostly chalked up to 3 games vs CHI - games 4/5/6 VAN allowed 16 goals against. Daniel was -6, Henrik was -7. Take away those 3 games, and the +/- is respectable. |
Edited by - nuxfan on 05/16/2011 14:06:24 |
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Guest4178
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Posted - 05/16/2011 : 14:19:44
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Good points Nuxfan! Especially your comments about the Sedins' plus/minus stats. You put their dismal stats in context.
I still think the Sedins need to step up their points production for the Canucks to advance to the finals. But I believe they will, and once again, because they've proven themselves to be consistent performers.
I can't disagree that the Canucks have great balance as a team, and they're definitely not a one-player (or two-player) team. (Or a one-line team as you stated.)
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sahis34
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
591 Posts |
Posted - 05/17/2011 : 16:32:45
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| plus minus for forwards is a pretty flawed stat |
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Guest9190
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Posted - 05/22/2011 : 21:11:10
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Now look at them now! I'd say its pretty obvious that they are back to their usual selves putting up points. Henrik had 4 assists and Daniel had 3 in todays game.
In fact Henrik is leading the entire NHL in points. Well i guess all those Sedin criticizers can shut up now!
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2011 : 04:48:46
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest9190
Now look at them now! I'd say its pretty obvious that they are back to their usual selves putting up points. Henrik had 4 assists and Daniel had 3 in todays game.
In fact Henrik is leading the entire NHL in points. Well i guess all those Sedin criticizers can shut up now!
The Sedin critics will not "shut up", in all probability, until they win the cup. Chances are looking very good right now, but they're not quite there yet.
IMHO, they are playing exactly the same level, and only the opposition has changed. Playoff hockey is like that, and some match-ups are more favourable for some players, and some are terrible for their offensive stats.
Just like I think Kesler is playing at the same level he has the last two series . . . sometimes it's the team; sometimes it's the defensive match-up; sometimes it's the goalie who has your number.
San Jose has not been able to contain the Sedins, and it'll cost them.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 05/23/2011 : 07:56:04
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Critics never do shut up. That is why they are critics!! The Sedin's absolutely have regained their regular season form. When the Canucks played discipline and give the Sedin's a chance to play and not sit on he bench while their team mates kill penalties the Canucks are nearly impossible to beat. In most of the games they lost in these playoffs, they have beat themselves as much as the opposition as beaten them.
Hats of to the twins. They are doing their job and doing it very well. |
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Guest7612
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Posted - 05/25/2011 : 01:10:40
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I just said this same thing pretty much in another topic, but I think it will really depend on the match up. Boston will smother them with grit and size, and Tampa Bay will give them lots of room to breathe.
San Jose --> Very offensive; not a whole lot of defense; nobody to shadow Sedins
Nashville--> Defense Oriented; gritty Sedin shadower, Mike Fisher
Chicago--> Very well rounded team with a handfull of some of the best defensive players in the game; Dave Bolland to shadow Sedins
Tampa Bay doesn't have the defense to be able to conatain the Sedins, while Boston certainly does. It would certainly seem interesting to see the Sedins try their cycle around Chara.
Oh, and there is no way one Sedin will play well without the other one doing so as well. |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 05/25/2011 : 04:46:03
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest7612
I just said this same thing pretty much in another topic, but I think it will really depend on the match up. Boston will smother them with grit and size, and Tampa Bay will give them lots of room to breathe.
San Jose --> Very offensive; not a whole lot of defense; nobody to shadow Sedins
Nashville--> Defense Oriented; gritty Sedin shadower, Mike Fisher
Chicago--> Very well rounded team with a handfull of some of the best defensive players in the game; Dave Bolland to shadow Sedins
Tampa Bay doesn't have the defense to be able to conatain the Sedins, while Boston certainly does. It would certainly seem interesting to see the Sedins try their cycle around Chara.
Oh, and there is no way one Sedin will play well without the other one doing so as well.
Boston's defence is awesome?!?
I beg to differ.
I don't think Boston or TB can even come close to the stifling style and the overall defensive skill that Nashville had. Watching that series was a real eye-opener for me, to see how good the Preds really were, to see what kind of amazing players Suter and Weber really are. They were tight, dude - and Vancouver was just relentless offensively, and they never really had a break-out offensive game.
Just checked - Vancouver's goals scored against Nashville:
1, 1, 3, 4, 3, 2
Almost every game a one goal difference.
Nah, you can't tell me Boston will do the same or better. And, you won't convince me that their offence won't be stifled by a very solid defence themselves.
I think whoever the Canucks meet . . . it might be real quick, like it used to be in the past with the finals (we have gotten lucky lately). It'll be 4 or 5 is my feeling, against either team.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 05/25/2011 : 14:17:38
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It's a split here more or less, as to who Canucks fans would prefer to see in the finals. Me personally, it'd be Boston. I think Montreal proved that they can be beat with speed. If Boston is so "smothering", why did they struggle in a big way with the speedy yet small Montreal team?
Boston has a better aura about it too being an original six city but either way, i like the Canucks chances!
I'll wait to see who we play before making a prediction.......awww, nevermind, if it's Boston, Canucks in 5 and if it's Tampa, Canucks in 6!  |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 05/25/2011 : 17:02:38
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Hey Slozo, not to burst any bubbles but both Tampa and Boston have been statistically better defensively than Nashville. Both have allowed fewer goals against per game and specifically on the PK where TB is at 93% and Bos at 83% while Nashville finished at 70%. Bos/TB did this against some solid offensive teams including Philly and Washington.
As I said in another thread, Vancouver is in tough against either team from the East. |
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onecup
Top Prospect
8 Posts |
Posted - 05/25/2011 : 22:40:21
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Hey Slozo, not to burst any bubbles but both Tampa and Boston have been statistically better defensively than Nashville. Both have allowed fewer goals against per game and specifically on the PK where TB is at 93% and Bos at 83% while Nashville finished at 70%. Bos/TB did this against some solid offensive teams including Philly and Washington.
As I said in another thread, Vancouver is in tough against either team from the East.
Apples to Oranges.
Sorry Beans but for that statistic to be relevant you'd need a sampling where every team played every other team under the exact same conditions. Besides...we all know that statistics are just for manipulating the facts. I haven't lost a chess game to my kids yet but that perfect record doesn't make me a better player than a Grand Master with a few losses.
Maybe the reason the Nashville stat is so low and Bos/TB so high is that Nashville has played Vancouver and Bos/TB haven't.
After all...you're only as good as your competition reveals you to be. (Thanks Chicago!)
But, Beans, since you seem to have a statistical bent I'd like to know how Vancouver's stats compare to those of Bos/TB. Only as an exercise in curiousity you understand. Much in the same way I read my horoscope without actually believing in it.
The harder you pull the trigger, the farther the bullet goes... |
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MrBoogedy
Rookie
Canada
195 Posts |
Posted - 05/26/2011 : 00:11:17
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quote:
The harder you pull the trigger, the farther the bullet goes...
sweet signature line. |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 05/26/2011 : 04:54:42
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quote:
Originally posted by onecup
Hey Slozo, not to burst any bubbles but both Tampa and Boston have been statistically better defensively than Nashville. Both have allowed fewer goals against per game and specifically on the PK where TB is at 93% and Bos at 83% while Nashville finished at 70%. Bos/TB did this against some solid offensive teams including Philly and Washington.
As I said in another thread, Vancouver is in tough against either team from the East.
Apples to Oranges.
Sorry Beans but for that statistic to be relevant you'd need a sampling where every team played every other team under the exact same conditions. Besides...we all know that statistics are just for manipulating the facts. I haven't lost a chess game to my kids yet but that perfect record doesn't make me a better player than a Grand Master with a few losses.
Maybe the reason the Nashville stat is so low and Bos/TB so high is that Nashville has played Vancouver and Bos/TB haven't.
After all...you're only as good as your competition reveals you to be. (Thanks Chicago!)
But, Beans, since you seem to have a statistical bent I'd like to know how Vancouver's stats compare to those of Bos/TB. Only as an exercise in curiousity you understand. Much in the same way I read my horoscope without actually believing in it.
The harder you pull the trigger, the farther the bullet goes...
Thanks for writing what I was going to write, basically. It is comparing apples to oranges.
What Beans might want to compare is Chicago to Montreal; Philly to Nashville; San Jose to Tampa Bay (which may just win this series yet).
Compare the competition they beat.
Myself, I would pick San Jose and Chicago to beat Boston and all the other teams listed in a one-on-one series.
Vancouver has had a MUCH tougher road, IMHO.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 05/26/2011 : 07:40:54
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Much tougher road?? That is an interesting opinion. Vancouver was the best team in the NHL in the regular season, meaning they were playing lesser teams all the way to the finals.
Let's look at the three teams for a second and the road they took to get where they are:
Vancouver played:
Chicago - 8th in the West, 13th in the NHL
Nashville - 7th in the West, 10th in the NHL
San Jose - 2nd in the West, 5th in the NHL
Boston played:
Montreal - 6th in the East, 14th in the NHL
Philadelphia - 2nd in the East, tied for 3rd in the NHL
Tampa Bay played:
Pittsburgh - 4th in the East, tied for 3rd in the NHL
Washington - 2nd in the East, 2nd in the NHL
Now, one can say what they want about stats all they want, but they are what they are. Sure, playing your daughter in chess is not saying you are a great chess player. But what if you are playing better ranked chess players and winning??? What does that say???
I think it's hard to say that one team has played significantly better competition than the others. Chicago and Nashville are both very good teams, but let's not forget that Tampa didn't just beat but completely owned the 2nd ranked team in the NHL and a favorite of many to win the Cup as well as Pitt, who were incredibly strong in the reg season and looked very sharp in the first 3 games of their series.
It is apples to oranges as no one could ever say that Vancouver would have beaten this team or that team if they didn't play. All I can comment on is reality. The reality is that all three teams have faced difficult competition on the way to the finals. I would say that of all three teams (if they make the Final) Tampa would have had the hardest road to the Cup.
Finally, to answer the questions about the stat comparison of the three teams:
GF/Game = TB(3.47), Bos(3.35), Van (2.78)
GA/Game = Van (2.56), TB (2.59), Bos (2.65)
GF/GA 5 on 5 = Bos (1.70), Van (1.07), TB (1.06)
PP% = Van (28.3%), TB (25.4%), Bos (8.2%)
PK = TB (92.3%), Van (80.6%), Bos (79.4%)
Statistically speaking, the teams are very close in most areas. The only glaring advantages would be Boston's 5 on 5 play and TB's PK. Everything else is pretty close. That should indicate a great finals.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 05/26/2011 : 09:45:11
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quote:
I think it's hard to say that one team has played significantly better competition than the others. Chicago and Nashville are both very good teams, but let's not forget that Tampa didn't just beat but completely owned the 2nd ranked team in the NHL and a favorite of many to win the Cup as well as Pitt, who were incredibly strong in the reg season and looked very sharp in the first 3 games of their series.
I would agree with Beans here, neither team has had a harder or easier road to the finals - regardless of who gets through from the east. Both conferences have had very good opponents, and the reality is that there was only a 10 point spread between 2nd and 16th overall in the NHL this year. Is it really fair to say that CHI (13th in the NHL) was a "far easier" opponent than WSH (2nd overall)? They are both very good teams.
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Guest9653
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Posted - 05/26/2011 : 11:28:37
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| The Sedins are rippin it up |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 05/26/2011 : 19:34:37
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This is where stats should be thrown out.
The Blackhawks were the best team in the first round that didn't make it to the 2nd . . . if you watched, you know. If you really didn't watch enough, I guess you can play with the number of who scored more goals or where a team finished in the regular season, as if that was the be all and end all of the real season, the playoffs.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 05/26/2011 : 22:33:16
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No one is arguing how good the Blackhawks were, but you can't discredit that TB beat Pitt and Wash to get to Bos or that Montreal was the best team in the East to not make it through the 1st round.
The point of the stats is that all these teams are incredibly close by measures and all these teams have played great competition to get to where they are.
As much as one can say stats should be thrown out, one can not discredit things based purely on what they 'think.' Trust me, I have watch more than enough playoff hockey to have an opinion. |
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Sedins Getting Back to Business... 
