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TheRC
Rookie
105 Posts |
 Posted - 09/07/2011 : 11:36:34
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http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=587088
It's getting close to pool pickin' time. Time for everybody to start making bold and wild predictions! The link above is a list of the top 150 fantasy hockey picks as determined by a panel of folks at NHL.com. Seems a bit conservative to me, but it's as good a place as any to start a general discussion on which players we expect to over or under perform in the upcoming season.
Let's stir up some controversy! I'll go first. It pains me to say it, but I wouldn't rank Datsyuk, Zetterburg or Iginla as highly as they are placed on this list. I'd consider the Red Wings my second favorite team, but they are certainly not the incredibly deep, finely tuned machine they were until a few seasons ago, and likewise Iginla is getting older and doesn't seem to have the support he'd need to put up numbers like he used to.
"If at first you don't succeed, you fail"
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 09/07/2011 : 14:48:13
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Hmm, so who exactly did Detroit lose in the off season that makes them such a huge step down?? Draper?? Modano?? Other than the loss of Rafalski, they are virtually the same team as last season. I am in no way saying Ian White will replace Rafalski completely but he is a nice addition to that team. Detroit is fine.
And Iginla was 6th in NHL scoring with the 5th highest point total of his career. Again, who did Calgary lose to make Iginla take such a step backwards??
I don't get it........... |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 09/07/2011 : 16:15:07
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Slozo made the same prediction against Iginla last season and if i do recall he was sporting a habs avatar during the playoffs, Iginla has at least 3 to 4 30 goal seasons left in him he will crack the 500 goal club this season and i am almost sure the 600 goal club before the end of his career, the guy has done it all his career being the only true superstar on his line and he will keep on doing it
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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MrBoogedy
Rookie
Canada
195 Posts |
Posted - 09/07/2011 : 21:12:33
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My habs bias is showing, but from everything I've read about Cammallerri's off season training i think your going to see him in the top ten scorers.
I expect Stamkos to produce heavily with St. Louis continuing to feed him, but i think Lecavalier's numbers are gonna drop... |
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Guest6786
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Posted - 09/08/2011 : 05:54:14
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actually i think Vinnie is going to have a strong season. look for him to finish with approx. 30G and around 80 pts..
i also think that this is Tavares' year to bust out and move into the elite category. i can see 40 goals and 90 pts this year for the young stud. |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 09/08/2011 : 06:25:46
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RC - halfway agree about Detroit, but with this caveat: they'll still finish 4th or 5th in the conference, behind Chicago in their division , IMHO. That's still quite a solid team. They are on the downslide, however, yes.
Mr Boogedy - Habs bias . . . sure, I'd say so, a bit. I mean, what will make Gomez so much better to give Cammalleri the chance at a huge year? Don't get me wrong - I think he'll do better than his 19 goals last year, sure - but I am very reluctant to consider him a lock for over 30 goals again with the players on his line right now.
Pasty - I agree, will never underestimate Iggy again. However, I think this year he MAY score under 35 goals, although I will certainly not be making any bets on that! 
Beans - I think the main issue with Detroit's potential slide downwards is age - Lidstrom almost retired (even though I know he had a phenomenal season last year, making my predictions of his demise entirely premature), Datsyuk older and slower, Zetterberg not the same player after his hip injury, Rafalski gone. White is a solid piece, but does not replace Rafalski, no - it's a downgrade. But yeah, I will concede it's way too early to predict a fall out of the playoffs like I did last year (ouch - possibly my worst prediction of last year).
MY BOLD PREDICTIONS
Might as well start with MY bias . . . 
1) Leafs make playoffs EASILY in 6th or 7th position.
2) Kadri gets 50 points.
3) Ovechkin scores 60 goals again.
4) The NY Rangers win the Atlantic division.
5) The surprise team to make the playoffs in the West is Minnesota.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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TheRC
Rookie
105 Posts |
Posted - 09/08/2011 : 19:59:06
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I did say the goal was to stir up controversy, didn't I?
I've followed Detroit rather closely for years now, and while the roster is more or less the same, I've watched them become less and less dominant each year. I saw a few games live last season, and they they just didn't look like the same team that make the finals a few years ago. I hope not, but it seems to me that if the trend they are on continues, it won't be long until Detroit starts losing the sorts of close games they used to manage to win win a season or two ago. That's not an oppinion I can support with any sort of statistics, just a feeling.
As for Iginla, I don't doubt that he's still a great player, or that he will put up solid numbers... but look how highly he's placed on the list. I for one would NOT be picking him ahead of guys like Kessler, Staal, Kane, Nash and Ryan.
"If at first you don't succeed, you fail" |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2011 : 03:06:24
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quote:
Originally posted by TheRC
I did say the goal was to stir up controversy, didn't I?
I've followed Detroit rather closely for years now, and while the roster is more or less the same, I've watched them become less and less dominant each year. I saw a few games live last season, and they they just didn't look like the same team that make the finals a few years ago. I hope not, but it seems to me that if the trend they are on continues, it won't be long until Detroit starts losing the sorts of close games they used to manage to win win a season or two ago. That's not an oppinion I can support with any sort of statistics, just a feeling.
As for Iginla, I don't doubt that he's still a great player, or that he will put up solid numbers... but look how highly he's placed on the list. I for one would NOT be picking him ahead of guys like Kessler, Staal, Kane, Nash and Ryan.
"If at first you don't succeed, you fail"
I'll give you the same terms as i did Slozo last season on my bet with Slozo if you want RC , if Iginla scores 36 goals or more i win and you can sport a habs Avatar for the playoffs, if Iginla scores 35 or less you win and i will sport a Leaf's avatar for the playoffs, Slozo said all the same things as you did just now last season and i understand where you are coming from and in all honesty when we made the bet last year i was worried, and for most of the year Iggy was on pace for 32 goals then at the end of the season when the Flames were fighting to get that final playoff spot Iggy went on a tear, finishing up with 41 goals i believe, and i think that's why he is ranked so high on the list, lets face it the flames will probably be a bubble team agains next year and iggy will have to do the same thing as last season put on his captain pants and tear it up to make the final playoff spot,
i think he finished 3rd in goal scoring last season and top 10 in points i think he is even a little to low on this list and should be ranked higher
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Edited by - Pasty7 on 09/09/2011 03:08:54 |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2011 : 07:54:05
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In a pure scoring pool, I would take Iginla over Kesler, Kane(only because he is coming off of surgery), and Ryan. It would be very close to take him over Iginla and I would take 15 other players ahead of Nash. Nash might be one of the most over-hyped players in the NHL.
I guess being one of the top 5 goal scorers in the NHL since the lock out means nothing? Until Iginla scores less than 30 goals in a season you have to assume he will score more.
The last time Iginla scored less than 30 goals in a season, Y2K was a concern!!
Frankly, I love to do pools with people who pick like this. People who think they are smarter than what history says and are always writting off players too early and grabing up other guys too soon. That theory might win a hockey pool when the stars align, but it is also often the strategy that finishes last a lot too!! I would rather be in the money year after year but not win than win once every 10 years.
Go with what you know. Yon know Iginla will give you 70+ points and 30-35 goals without any issue. Doesn't matter who he plays with or how good the team is, you can bank on it. |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2011 : 02:19:59
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Nash might be one of the most over-hyped players in the NHL.
8 seasons in the NHL 1 season besides his Rookie season where he has scored less than 30 goals (27 in 75gp) can somebody tell me who is the best center he has ever had? the best i could come up with was Derek Brassard .... overhyped?
to stay on topic here is my Bold Prediction Jeff Carter scores 45 goals this coming season and Nash has a 90 point season, (not really that bold but if he is so overhyped it just might be)
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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TheRC
Rookie
105 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2011 : 08:14:42
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I'll take that bet Pasty. Making that bet every year since the lockout means we'd still split 50/50, and I'm putting my money on Iginla (and Calgary in general, really) trending downward.
As for pool strategy Beans, both the pools I've been a part of for the past few years have a large number of players, and pay the jackpot to the winner, a pittance to 2nd and 3rd, and everybody else loses their money. Betting entirely on the previous season is a good way to finish somewhere around 7th place; respectable, but still a loss. I totally understand your strategy, and it's what to do if you're in a pool that pays out pretty far down the ladder, I'm just part of pools where I've found it makes the most sense to make an educated guess on which young or under appreciated players are going to have big years, rather than rely on veterans who will probably put up solid numbers, but are unlikely to surprise.
The times I've won were thanks to breakout years by guys like Vanek and Backstrom who were not then automatic first round choices. I'm not saying Iginla is crap, not at all, it's just that somebody else is going to take him way earlier than I would, and I'm cool with that.
"If at first you don't succeed, you fail" |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 09/10/2011 : 15:39:13
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quote:
Originally posted by TheRC
I'll take that bet Pasty. Making that bet every year since the lockout means we'd still split 50/50, and I'm putting my money on Iginla (and Calgary in general, really) trending downward.
As for pool strategy Beans, both the pools I've been a part of for the past few years have a large number of players, and pay the jackpot to the winner, a pittance to 2nd and 3rd, and everybody else loses their money. Betting entirely on the previous season is a good way to finish somewhere around 7th place; respectable, but still a loss. I totally understand your strategy, and it's what to do if you're in a pool that pays out pretty far down the ladder, I'm just part of pools where I've found it makes the most sense to make an educated guess on which young or under appreciated players are going to have big years, rather than rely on veterans who will probably put up solid numbers, but are unlikely to surprise.
The times I've won were thanks to breakout years by guys like Vanek and Backstrom who were not then automatic first round choices. I'm not saying Iginla is crap, not at all, it's just that somebody else is going to take him way earlier than I would, and I'm cool with that.
"If at first you don't succeed, you fail"
alright RC we re on!
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Expectations and Predictions 
