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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1878 Posts

Posted - 02/18/2013 :  16:40:35  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
http://www.capgeek.com/payrolls/?charts_year=2013

Here is a link to Cap Geek which begs the question, with 14 signed players and $3.8 million left to spend to the cap, how are the Canucks gonna ice a team next year? Are they expecting Loungo's contract gone to field a team. They literally have to dump his contract and sign 7 players to his space and less than $4 Million more.

Other teams in good and bad positioning but Vancouver struck me as very poor.

nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3586 Posts

Posted - 02/18/2013 :  17:04:01  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
On the surface, they are in poor shape. However, some things to consider:

- One of Luongo or Schneider will be gone next year. It was clear from the getgo that the luxury of having both was for this year only, and one must be gone by the start of next season.

- amnesty buyouts - I would not be suprised to see VAN use both of them this summer. Likely candidates are Ballard (4.2M) and Booth (4.2M) if their contracts cannot be dumped on another team. Both would be replaced with cheaper EL contracts - VAN is deep in defensemen on the farm, and one of Jensen/Gaunce/Mallet could make the jump next year as a forward

VAN should be able to shed about 14M in cap space by getting rid of those 3 players. Assuming you can replace all 3 for no more than 3M (a cheap backup goalie, rookie dman, rookie forward), that gives VAN a total of 15M in cap space to sign 8 more players.

S'all good
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1878 Posts

Posted - 02/18/2013 :  17:25:49  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I figured as much with regards to buyouts and such, but it seems like a horrible position to be in with the parity between the teams. By far they are in the worst position come the offseason.

Another team in a bad position is Anaheim. Bobby Ryan and Cogliano are the only 2 signed top forwards come the offseason and they are on a tear. Mind you they have $30 million to sign those players but 4 of there top 6 unsigned? And the back up is playing amazing 8 straight wins to start a career (1 more to tie the NHL record)

Edited by - JOSHUACANADA on 02/18/2013 17:49:50
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3586 Posts

Posted - 02/18/2013 :  17:57:34  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

I figured as much with regards to buyouts and such, but it seems like a horrible position to be in with the parity between the teams. By far they are in the worst position come the offseason.

Another team in a bad position is Anaheim. Bobby Ryan and Cogliano are the only 2 signed top forwards come the offseason and they are on a tear. Mind you they have $30 million to sign those players but 4 of there top 6 unsigned? And the back up is playing amazing 8 straight wins to start a career (1 more to tie the NHL record)



I would not call VAN's situation "the worst" by a long shot. They are going to be able to free up 14M in cap space without sacrificing anything that is core or irreplaceable to their team. They'll get rid of those contracts, but they'll still have a quality starting goalie, 5 of their top-6 forwards, and 5 of their top-6 dmen. They'll have 17M in cap space to add one or two top-6 forwards, a bottom-6 dman, a backup goalie, and a bunch of role players. Thats hardly a dire situation.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3586 Posts

Posted - 02/18/2013 :  21:30:39  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
one team that should be interesting to follow will be PHI - next year may be a small challenge with 2M in space and 4 spots to fill...but the 14/15 season is shaping up to be a serious issue.

According to capgeek, going into 14/15, PHI will have 20M to sign 12 players. However, 3 of those players will be RFA's Giroux, Brayden Schenn, and Couturier, who together are likely to eat up half of that. They will also need to resign Matt Read (who will be UFA), and find a replacement for Timonen as their #1 offensive dman. Those 5 together could easily eat up 15-18M in cap space.

I wonder if they'll do anything this summer to start preparing for the year after. CHI also looks to be another team that could have issues in the 14/15 season (22M cap space to sign 14 players).

As for other teams that will be "worse off" than VAN this coming offseason:

- SJ: 10M in cap space to sign 10 players. Notables: Clowe, Handzus, Douglas Murray, Thomas Griess, Galiard (RFA coming off a low-ish deal)

- NYR: 10M to sign 6 players, but they include Stepan, Hagelin, and McDonaugh all coming off EL deals and requiring hefty raises.

- CGY: 14M to sign 8 players, but Backlund, Cervenka, Butler, Brodie all coming off EL deals. Cervenka will be UFA to boot.

- TB: 6M in space to sign 7 players. Even worse, in 14/15, they have 16M to sign 14 players, including RFA Cory Conacher.

I think its fair to say that VAN, while looking forward to some challenges in the offseason, is not in too bad shape, all things considered.

Edited by - nuxfan on 02/18/2013 21:42:25
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Guest2872
( )

Posted - 02/19/2013 :  06:04:55  Reply with Quote
Things are definitely going to get interesting around the league next couple of years!
As far as Philly is concerned I am sure they will use their amnesty buyouts on Briere and Pronger,,,,possibly Bryz (doubt it)....which will free up over 11.5 million. But like you said they still have to make some moves to improve i.e. replacing Kimmo.
What will be really interesting is who gets bought out league wide and where will all these "buy out" players end up?
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Guest4350
( )

Posted - 02/19/2013 :  06:32:05  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Guest2872

Things are definitely going to get interesting around the league next couple of years!
As far as Philly is concerned I am sure they will use their amnesty buyouts on Briere and Pronger,,,,possibly Bryz (doubt it)....which will free up over 11.5 million. But like you said they still have to make some moves to improve i.e. replacing Kimmo.
What will be really interesting is who gets bought out league wide and where will all these "buy out" players end up?

Philly can't buy out Pronger because he is on injured reserve. Besides Pronger doesn't count on the cap due to his injury status.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5794 Posts

Posted - 02/19/2013 :  07:36:37  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
This really should be an interesting summer with the buyouts. On one hand i look at teams like Vancouver and say "surely some team out there would take a Ballard or a Booth for next to nothing"? Why buy them out and pay that money if you can just trade them for something very insignificant? BUT, maybe there won't be a market. We always hear / talk about teams needing to hit the cap floor, but there's gonna be more than a team or two dealing with players like these so their options could be plentiful?

The thing i think will be most interesting will be watching to see if teams actually try to buy a guy out and resign him for less dollars? Take Bryzgalov for instance. Would the Flyers try to do this with him? Would he be pissed off, or would he be happy? I'm not even sure how the whole buyout thing works (as in how much money would he see of this long term deal he's on?). Would they then turn around and say, "Hey Ilya, here's a deal for 4mil, c'mon back on board". In the team's defense, these bought out players have to realize that the cap is what it is and teams can only afford so much now!
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1878 Posts

Posted - 02/19/2013 :  08:04:34  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Why I was using Vancouver, was there position relies on buyouts or Loungo's contract to go away without requiring a decent return, where as other teams have room or more signed players to work with. I agree there are other teams in bad positions. San Jose was one I initially looked at, but the core of the team is commited for 2013-2014, so not as bad. Philly and the Rangers are definitaly a concern. In another topic, there was bashing with regards to the NYI, but looking ahead there position is one of the better one's, with tonnes of cap space and alot of there core signed. I heard a rumour that the team is for sale, which is relocating to Brooklyn. Part of me wonders if with new ownership comes a stronger position for free agent signings. Wang to me is the reason that team hasn't found the success there core deserves. In a few short years with new ownership that team could be on the road to better times again.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend



5794 Posts

Posted - 02/19/2013 :  09:36:24  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The thing that we, as well as the players, will soon figure out is that guys who are resigning new deals, will simply have to accept the fact that the HUGE money deals just can't be there any longer. The cap won't allow for it. So, guys who are due "hefty raises", will have to accept the fact that they won't be able to get as much as guys in the past have!

McDonaugh, for example, would have prob commanded 5+ Million if he were signing a year or two ago (at the level of play he's currently at). Now, how much cap space can the Rangers afford to have him eat up? He may get a 4-4.5 deal?? I don't know, unless they go big on guys like him and have to convince the 5/6 dmen and 4th liners to accept league mins?

I'm eagerly awaiting guys like Perry, Getzlaf, etc to sign as i'm curious as to just how much they will command as compared to the big ticket guys of last year such as Parise and Suter.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star



3586 Posts

Posted - 02/19/2013 :  20:55:18  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA

Why I was using Vancouver, was there position relies on buyouts or Loungo's contract to go away without requiring a decent return, where as other teams have room or more signed players to work with. I agree there are other teams in bad positions. San Jose was one I initially looked at, but the core of the team is commited for 2013-2014, so not as bad. Philly and the Rangers are definitaly a concern.



At least 10 teams will have to rely on at least one buyout next season or the season after in order to shed salary to meet the cap. VAN is a rich team, they can afford to buyout if they need to, its not an impediment for them.

However, their cap situation does not rely on them moving Luongo specifically. They have to move one of their goalies before next season for sure, and while I think they would much prefer to move Luongo and keep Schneider, if they don't get offers that they like for Luongo, and its buyout Lu or trade Schneider, I believe they would trade Schneider. If that were to happen, Schneider would probably command more in return, and they could very likely get prospects/picks only if they wanted it.

VAN's position is certainly challenging, and there are teams out there with an easier path to cap compliance, but I'm not particularly worried about VAN. They have built a solid team, and many players have taken less than market to stay here, which in hindsight has been a blessing for this exact reason.
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Guest2872
( )

Posted - 02/21/2013 :  05:32:16  Reply with Quote
I think a number of teams may take the wait and see approach. There will be a number of high profile players let go from their teams who CAN NOT resign with them. So the example used earlier of buying out Bryz then offering a lesser contract is not an option....they become free agents. Will this availability of "extra" free agents drive down the asking price of players at the deadline? For example how much is a guy like Danny Briere worth? Proven playoff point producer with a large cap hit but low "actually dollar" hit? Team could use him for playoffs then simply buy him out or keep depending on needs. Definitely a lot of factors/scenarios to consider.
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