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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
 Posted - 10/01/2013 : 14:32:13
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quote:
Originally posted by JOSHUACANADA
Hey Slozo, I don't have the same problem with Kessel making $8 million a season that the other poster's seem to have. The only question is of the players they have listed, which there are not that many that they can ramble off projections and worth greater than Kessel, how many will sign contract of the same or greater value in the next 5 years or so. I say the majority of the list will demand equal or greater value. Does this mean it is a good or great signing, no. I think it is too long and clearly not a home town discount, which means Toronto twice has overpaid for Kessel, whether or not $8 million is his value today.
This raises the really interesting question - is Kessel getting paid at the market, or does his contract set a new market for that type of player? I'm guessing the latter, which will have impacts on a variety of players who's contracts are coming up for renewal. |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 10/01/2013 : 15:24:34
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Man, i don't know what to say regarding this. I'm at a total loss for where contracts are still and will be moving forward. I no longer know what to expect as far as "market value" goes. I mean, isn't market value basically what one can get on the "open market"?
I want to criticize the Leafs for a contract that I feel is both too high and for too long, but i'm not sure it's fair of me to do so.
Problem with the arguments here is that guys sign deals at different times, different points of their careers, different ages, etc, etc. Is it fair to say J. Thornton is worth more than Kessel? To be honest, if i'm looking for a guy for a 2-3 year window, i'm taking Joe, but if i'm in a rebuilding mode where I think i'm getting close with my team, i'm all over Kessel as Thornton's best days are likely behind him, or soon to be. Some of the comparisons and player preferences I agree with, but others I don't at all. Jeff Carter? I'd take Kessel over him in a heartbeat. Lucic? Quite a different player to begin with, but i'm taking the scorer (Kessel) over the physical power forward for sure. Even James Neal, who I think is really benefitting from his new found home beside Malkin, I prob pass over for Kessel.
Anyway, it's really more a debate about where Kessel sits in your rankings of NHLers. I know it's got to do with a contract, but you almost have to leave it out. Beans....in your list of 7-8M guys, you've got Nash, Parise, Gaborik, Thornton and Stamkos who you'd take over Phil. Personally I'm not sure i'd include Gaborik in there and maybe not even Nash at this point of his career, but when were these deals signed? I don't think for a second, any Leaf fan is gonna claim that Kessel is worth more than Stamkos, but the fact of the matter is, Stamkos signed his deal 2+ years ago! No telling what he'd get from Stevie Y today?
Regardless though, 8 years is a long time. What's going to be interesting is whether or not 6 or 7 years from now Kessel is still putting up PPG numbers and by then will the salaries be paying PPG guys 10-12M???
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2013 : 09:41:16
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There is the argument that Doug MacKenzie discussed yesterday which is the cost of doing business. We could all argue if he's worth it or not as a player but that is almost not relevant. What would have happened had Kessel become a free agent next July?? Again, we can argue this a lot too but I personally believe some idiot would have spend $8 million/season.
The market is what it is and until GM's/Owners manage themselves that price of doing business continues to increase.
I guess when I look at this situation I think that a player with a cap hit of $8 million or more is a cornerstone player that most GM's would build a team around. And I mean this as no disrespect to Kessel because he is an elite level offensive player. But I am pretty sure if you did an anonomous poll of the 30 NHL GM's asking who is the one skated(no goalies) you would draft #1 overall in an expansion draft, Kessel is not top5. I would argue he would likely not be top10.
Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2013 : 11:48:02
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yeah but beans on the other side of that IMO if the NHL abolished all current rosters and allowed NHL GMs to fantasy draft Kessel would be drafted in the first round, on a lot of teams Kessel would be the best player on the team,
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2013 : 13:50:43
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quote:
Originally posted by Pasty7
yeah but beans on the other side of that IMO if the NHL abolished all current rosters and allowed NHL GMs to fantasy draft Kessel would be drafted in the first round, on a lot of teams Kessel would be the best player on the team,
Hello, 911? It's an emergency, my teddy bear's been kidnapped!
[pause] Hello? Hello?
I doubt that.
Drafting a full team is quite a different thing... there is no way that Kessel is one of the 30 best players, over all positions in the NHL. |
Edited by - nuxfan on 10/02/2013 13:52:31 |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2013 : 15:16:34
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if you include goalies maybe he gets bumped to the second round but you really think he isn't a top 30 skater in the NHL in a fantasy draft at his age 26? I mean i'm a habs fan it's not like i like admitting this but I couldn't see 30 teams passing this guy up in the first round.
Tsn.ca list kessel as the 43rd best player in the NHL, take away the 3 goalies listed ahead of him Rinne, Lundquvist and Qucik, hes the 40th best skater.
then I would personally give that kind of money to Kessel before 33 year old Sedin twins ,
everyone knows on this site i'm a huge Rick Nash fan and i would put Kessel right about on par with Nash, who is 29 th on this list. I don't think anyone would be crazy to say they would prefer a 26 year old Kessel to a 29 year old Nash on their team at 8 million cap hit.
Hello, 911? It's an emergency, my teddy bear's been kidnapped!
[pause] Hello? Hello?
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JOSHUACANADA
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2308 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2013 : 15:19:00
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| I could see Kessel go in the first 20 forwards, but not the first 30 players if I was gonna rank my draft. Does that mean he is or isn't worth his signed contract value. There are players I would draft for a real hockey team, not a fantasy draft which I would expect at a lower contract value than Kessel. Doesn't mean he isn't worth the $8 million he is signed for. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 10/02/2013 : 21:43:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Pasty7
Tsn.ca list kessel as the 43rd best player in the NHL, take away the 3 goalies listed ahead of him Rinne, Lundquvist and Qucik, hes the 40th best skater.
then I would personally give that kind of money to Kessel before 33 year old Sedin twins ,
everyone knows on this site i'm a huge Rick Nash fan and i would put Kessel right about on par with Nash, who is 29 th on this list. I don't think anyone would be crazy to say they would prefer a 26 year old Kessel to a 29 year old Nash on their team at 8 million cap hit.
We've perhaps gone a little off topic with your scenario, but I think in a world where all rosters have been thrown out and GM's are drafting new teams, Kessel does not get chosen early. Most GM's would likely build around:
- solid starting goaltender
- elite top-2 dman
- elite top centre
and then worry about one-dimensional-but-talented wingers. I don't even think TOR would choose Kessel with their first pick in this sort of draft, and TSN rankings probably mean very little in this scenario. But we digress...
8M is significant money. In the current cap world,it represents 12.5% of your total cap, most teams can only afford 1 of these contracts, perhaps 2 if they are truly special players (revisit the discussion around ANA and Getzlaf/Perry). If you are one of those teams with an 8M contract or two, the player needs to be capital-S Special, not just elite, but elite amongst elites. There are only 7 players in the NHL making 8M+ per year, so the club is exclusive. IMO they need to be multi-dimensional - a 25+ minute defenseman that plays all 3 situations and scores a boatload of points as well, or a top centre that plays all situations, takes faceoffs, and probably scores PPG or better more often than not. Leadership is key - 4 of the 7 are the captains of their respective teams, and 2 of the others would probably be if they were not on the same team as their captains. As Beans said - no disrespect to Kessel, he is a talented offensive player. But he is not in the same class as the rest of the 8M club.
Regarding the Sedin's vs Kessel vs Nash - I would give none of them 8M per season, albeit for different reasons. And, only one of those players is currently making 8M - the Sedin's are both under (time will tell where they end up), and Nash is merely making 7.5M. If Gillis pays the Sedin's 8M each next year, I might cancel my tickets and return my jersey - unless the cap were to rise to 70M or more, I think that would be one of the most irresponsible financial decisions that he could make with the Canucks at this point.
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Edited by - nuxfan on 10/02/2013 21:45:05 |
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@valanche
Rookie
Canada
240 Posts |
Posted - 10/03/2013 : 12:01:03
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seems like there are no players in the 2.5-5 million range anymore.
now its either star or filler no inbetween.
66 is > than 99 |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 10/03/2013 : 12:05:37
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Without getting too far off track, the point of contracts is not only the money but also the term. To Nux statement about paying the Sedin's $7 million next season. I would have far less issue with a $7 mil cap hit for 1 or 2 years but if they are signed to say a 5 yr $35 million deal each, that is too much.
Don't get me wrong, I will be the first to admit that Kessel has evolved into an elite scorer. You can't be in the top 10 for 2 straight years and be one of the top 5 guys in total points over the last 4 years if you are not an elite scorer. But I still don't think he commands the 8th highest salary in the NHL based on annual cap hit. Back to my point about who the GM's would draft, the player's that a team would build around are the players who should be getting the $8 million+ salaries.
Kessel is not a guy to build a team around. He hasn't proven it in his entire career and it's not really likely he would start now. He is a top teir #2 guy. I think putting him as a complimentary piece beside a Toews, Getzlaf, Staal, Crosby, Malkin, et al would be almost impossible to stop.
But he is not THE core building block.
Ottawa, the best coached team in the NHL, with MVP like players such as Chris Neil, will win the Cup in 2013!
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Kessel - Pending UFA 
