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 Will Crosby beat Gretzky's Record Allow Anonymous Users Reply to This Topic...
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Smali101
Top Prospect



Canada
2 Posts

Posted - 02/17/2008 :  10:57:47  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Poll Question:
The young star of today. I believe Crosby will one day surpass The Great Ones point number, and one day number 87 will be a retired number.So will Crosby surpass Gretzkys Points?

Choices:

Yes
No
Can''t tell yet

(Anonymous Vote)

Devils Fanatic
Top Prospect



Canada
87 Posts

Posted - 02/17/2008 :  12:00:55  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Not even close

Devils fan since the 85-86 season
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8173 Posts

Posted - 02/17/2008 :  12:12:32  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I'll go through the math.

First off, let's assume that Crosby comes back to play the rest of Pitts remaining games this season. If he continues on his PPG average, he would finish the year with about 96 points, which would put him at 318 points in 230 games.

Through Gretzk'y first 3 season, he had 513 points in 239 games.

So Crosby is only 200 points behind Gretzky after 3 seasons.

If Crosby was to continue his current PPG average(1.38), he would need another 1863 games. If Crosby didn't miss another regular season game, he would break Gretzky's record some time through his 26th season. He would be 53 years old when he broke Gretzky's record.

All I can say is that is HIGHLY unlikely.
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Guest9934
( )

Posted - 02/17/2008 :  12:30:27  Reply with Quote
yah not even close

In the great one's era, it was common to have over 100 pts in a year,.Now very few reach that milestone and anything over 120 pts in cosidered an amazing season, pts are much harder to come by now then 20-25 yrs ago.

This is too simple of a question to answer at this time, unless something dramatically changes like hockey were to go 4 on 4 or something along those lines to make goal scoring increase dramatically would Crosby will never break #99's records.

Crosby's number 87 will still be retired. Hes Amaazingg!!
Go Pens!!
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8173 Posts

Posted - 02/17/2008 :  13:07:25  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Just to touch on this, a 100 point season is impressive in any era. There have only been 101 players in NHL history to have 100 or more points in a season. It has happened 259 times. The first was by Mr. Espo in 68-69, so the other 258 times is from the past 40 years.

Players with Only 1-100 points Season- 46
Players with Only 2-100 point Seasons-23
Players with Only 3-100 points seasons- 9
Players with 4 or More 100 Point season-23

There are only 2 players with 10 or more 100 points seasons. One's name is Wayne(15 total, 13 consecutive), and the other is Mario(10). Dionne is up there is 8, Bossy and Statsny have 7 each, and there is a log jam of 9 players at 6 including Mr. Orr who had the most of any D-man. Pretty sick considering that era and that he only played 9 seasons!

Of the 259 times, 118 of them (45%) occured in the 80's, which should not be a surprise to anyone.

However, in today's NHL, between 96/97 and 06/07, there have only been 24 occurances of the 100 point season. In 92-93 alone, there were 21 occurances of the 100 points season.


What does all this mean for this thread??? It is even more unlikely for Crosby to come close to Gretzky's records, let alone break them.
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irvine
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1315 Posts

Posted - 02/17/2008 :  14:15:17  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Haha beans, you are great. You always work things out for me so I don't have to. Merci! :)

Irvine
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PainTrain
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
1393 Posts

Posted - 02/17/2008 :  17:10:02  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Beans where do you get all this information? That latest post was just great to read!
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8173 Posts

Posted - 02/17/2008 :  22:58:07  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Google is an amazing tool!! It also doesn't hurt that I am a geek!

Also, from most any stat site, you can copy and paste it into excel and then sort and analyze the info how ever you want.

However, this last one on the 100 point seasons was from Wikipedia. Just be careful with Wikipedia as it is not as reliable as other sites.

Here is the link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Hockey_League_players_with_100_point_seasons
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HabsBiggestFan
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
368 Posts

Posted - 02/18/2008 :  14:40:46  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Crosby won't even come close.
Maybe in your dreams...

"My life: eat, sleep, play hockey"
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Guest8815
( )

Posted - 02/18/2008 :  15:33:09  Reply with Quote
Without a second thought. No.
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Leafs Rock Planet
PickupHockey Pro



Canada
902 Posts

Posted - 02/18/2008 :  16:08:39  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
In this scenario you can never say never.

Crosby could keep going and record 10 straight 200 point seasons which is highly un-probable but always a possibility.
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8173 Posts

Posted - 02/18/2008 :  23:06:47  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
OK, here's another really interesting thing:

To this point, in the 89 NHL seasons ending 06/07, there are only 71 player that have more than 1000 points. How many players have more than 1,500 career points?? Try 12. And one final fact, Looking only at the 71 players with 1000 or more points, Gretzky had more than double the points of 59 of them. We are talking about the elite of the elite of NHL offensive players, and Gretzky lapped them.

I don't think people quite understand how unfathomable Gretzky's all time point record is.


(As a side note, please do not take this as me talking about how great WG was. All I am trying to do it put into perspective how huge the number is. Always remember, Gretzky was not good because of his stats. Like any player, stats are simply a symptom of their talent and the talent around them)


Edited by - Beans15 on 02/18/2008 23:11:21
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Beans15
Moderator



Canada
8173 Posts

Posted - 02/18/2008 :  23:19:41  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Here's one other part I think is important.

There have been only 216 players to play in 1000 or more games to this point. The vast majority of careers are far less.

If Crosby was to continue his current pace(1.38 PPG), he would pass Gretzky in his 2070 game. That is 300 more games than Gordie Howe.

There have only been 42 players to have careers of 20 season or more. Of all the players who have played 1000 games or more, they averaged 67 games/season.

If Crosby was to be over the average and get 70 games/season, he would have to play 30 NHL seasons to beat Gretzky at his current pace.

Wow.


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PuckNuts
PickupHockey Veteran



Canada
2414 Posts

Posted - 02/19/2008 :  08:05:20  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Having a long career is one thing, having a long career, and at the top of your game, or the league is another.

I am not sure if a lot of thought goes into the fact that a player at the top of his game for 10 out of 15 seasons would seem reasonable. For a player to top Gretzky's records, unless they add the 3rd, and 4th assists is mind boggling, as Beans has shown the math. This player would have to be on the top of his game, and the league for 25 out of 30 seasons???

Chelios is a player who has managed to play a lengthy career. His best seasons are well behind him. 73 points in the late 80's, and early 90's are his best offensive efforts. He now manages to get less than 20 points a season???

I am sure someone will come along that is an exceptional talent, but if they cannot put up 200 point seasons then Gretzky's record is safe...

[img]http://www.maldesigns.ca/top%2050%20since%201967%20banner.jpg[/img]
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