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 Posted - 01/19/2009 : 10:59:17
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By Darryl Dobbs
The title says it all. So without further ado, the second part of a two-part piece…
Sell High
Alexander Semin, Washington – This guy is a world-class talent and if he stays healthy I think he is a legitimate 90-point player. Perhaps more, when you consider that he is on an offensive powerhouse such as Washington. However, much like Martin Havlat, Simon Gagne and Todd White (listed here last week), Semin can’t stay healthy anymore. He’s also playing at a 115-point pace, which even at the peak of health is above what he can sustain. Two reasons to move him, because you’ll make a killing in any fantasy format.
Mikael Samuelsson, Detroit – Samuelsson has averaged 13 games missed per season over the last three years. Besides that, his career high is 45 points. I think the 32-year-old tops out at 55, which he may hit if he stays healthy. To me, that’s too many “ifs”. Deal him now and bring in a similar player with less “ifs”.
Manny Fernandez, Boston – What a nice comeback season for Fernandez. However, his fragility has come into question over the last 18 months and prior to his injury problems he had a couple of rather sub-par seasons. He is an unrestricted free agent this summer and someone in your league will think highly of him in that situation. He’s a good candidate to move.
Ryane Clowe, San Jose – I like Clowe, but he has two flaws: streakiness and fragility. If he puts the package together and stays healthy he could be an 80-point player. However, his cold streaks will see to it that he never gets 70 and his proneness to injury will ensure that he never gets to 65. His last three years in the NHL: missed 67, 24 and 29 games (this last one was combined with AHL). His two years in the AHL before that: missed six and eight games. He even missed half a season in his first year in the QMJHL.
Aaron Voros, N.Y. Rangers – Voros is a penalty-minute stud this year, ranking 17th so far by earning 83 of them while tallying 14 points. However, his role is diminishing quickly. He has been a healthy scratch in four of the last six games. In the last six games that he did play, he managed just four minutes in the sin bin. He also has just five of those points in his last 32 contests.
Buy Low
J. P. Dumont, Nashville – From Christmas of 2007 through Christmas of 2008, Dumont was the 10th most prolific scorer in the league (it’s true – look it up). This was mainly due to his 45 points in the last 41 games last campaign. When he gets rolling, he’s tough to keep off the scoresheet. The addition of Steve Sullivan to the lineup should help him shake his funk, even though they are on different lines.
Jason Spezza, Ottawa – This is one of those rare opportunities where you can grab a Top 5 scorer and stick him on your team for very cheap if you are in a keeper league. Even one-year leagues can get Spezza for a great deal. He should be potting 11 points for every eight games he plays (or 110 points over a full season) and yet he has just 33 in 40. He has 11 in his last 10 though, so he is starting to get back to his normal self. A new coach would really spark this guy.
Eric Staal, Carolina – He is on a 61-point pace, which we have not seen from the eldest Staal brother since he was a rookie. He has 17 points in his last 16 games, which is one game after Paul Maurice took over as coach. Expect at least 70 this year and probably closer to 80.
Shawn Horcoff, Edmonton – In two of his last three seasons, his points-per-game average was at least 0.92. This year it is 0.73, but in his last 22 games it has been 0.95. He is back to his old self and your competitors may not know it yet. Make a pitch.
Alexander Frolov, Los Angeles – The last time he had a points-per-game average below 0.78 was before the lockout. His 56-point pace is way out of whack. He’s a streaky player and his hot run could start any minute now. Still just 26, his best years are ahead of him.
Peter Mueller, Phoenix – While it is certainly feasible that he could hit the dreaded sophomore slump and take a step back from last year’s 54 points, I don’t think that is the case. Last campaign Mueller improved with every quarter. I’m looking for the same thing this time around. He had 12 in the first 21 games and 13 in the second 21 games – not a big increase, but it’s a start.
Andrei Kostitsyn, Montreal – Another player who finished strong last year, Kostitsyn also had to contend with a couple of minor injuries. With the Habs dealing with several injuries now, AK46 is getting the ice time needed to get out of his early funk. He has eight points in his last four games and 12 in his last eight, so you are already seeing him shake it off. He will eventually be a point-per-game player, probably within three years.
http://www.dobberhockey.com/
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