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 Posted - 10/23/2006 : 10:12:43
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By Darryl Dobbs
Fantasy owners should be cognizant of a team’s 10th game of the season. NHL general managers certainly are. According to the NHL CBA, a rookie who plays in his 10th game will be considered to have played an entire season. That is, if they signed a typical three-year entry-level deal, they will have officially played their first year. It also affects a player in terms of his future arbitration year, unrestricted free agency, etc. Needless to say, a rookie would have to play a pretty major role with his team if he plans to stick around beyond game number nine.
While Evgeni Malkin, Dustin Penner, Matt Carle, and Anze Kopitar are locks to remain with the big club, the rest of the 2006-07 rookie crew are by no means locks. Below are some players of fantasy interest, and where they stand.
Paul Stastny, Colorado. Stastny is getting more ice time than fellow rookie Wojtek Wolski, and is being used in all special team situations. The chances are quite good that he will remain with the squad and post 40+ numbers this season. His long-term upside is 75 points. Chance of sticking: 90%.
Wojtek Wolski, Colorado. He plays a heck of game one night, and is invisible the next, but he does have three goals. He was sent back to junior after the ninth game last season, but do not expect that to happen again. Chance of sticking: 95%.
Lasse Kukkonen, Chicago. The 25-year-old Finn was a surprise in training camp, doing everything this fall that Brent Seabrook did last fall. He has six points in eight games, and will remain with the team and finish in the high-thirties. Chance of sticking: 100%.
Jordan Staal, Pittsburgh. A week ago, I would have chiseled in stone Staal’s chances of making the team at about 10%. His fine play on the penalty kill, and the fact that he is getting 12 minutes of ice time per game, tells me the Pens will keep him. All three of his goals are shorthanded markers – one of which was a penalty shot. Chance of sticking: 75%.
Phil Kessel, Boston. The 18-year-old has three points in seven games, but is seeing quite a lot of ice time for a rookie. His minus-2, combined with a six percent shooting percentage could see him spend a year in the AHL. It really is Dave Lewis’ call. Chance of sticking: 50%.
Patrick O’Sullivan, Los Angeles. He has already been a healthy scratch, but on the other hand he has shown flashes of brilliance. Is this his year? If not, he is a Calder favorite for next season. Chance of sticking: 40%.
Gilbert Brule, Columbus. Last week I would have stated unequivocally - 100 percent chance he is sent down. Now? Not so fast. Coach Gerard Gallant placed him on the top line on Saturday, and has now given him quality ice time for two games, and he is taking advantage. Chances of sticking: 40%.
Travis Zajac, New Jersey. The Devils signed him out of college early for a reason, and Zajac has not looked out of place – playing nearly 14 minutes per game. The Devils are still in salary-cap peril, and Zajac’s relatively cheap price will keep him in the lineup. Expect about 30 points this season. Chances of sticking: 99%.
Ladislav Smid, Edmonton. The Oilers rearguard, acquired in the offseason as part of the Chris Pronger package, has been solid enough in his own end to warrant a full season in the NHL. Currently the No.5 defenseman on the squad, Smid will climb up the ladder a couple of notches each season until he is their main man. Chances of sticking: 90%.
Nigel Dawes, NY Rangers. A surprise to make the team, Dawes earned his spot. That being said, seven minutes per game is a waste of a good prospect’s development. Chances of sticking: 10%.
Jiri Hudler, Detroit. Hudler is not one of coach Mike Babcock’s favorites, but at 22 years of age, he must clear waivers if he were to be sent down. That will never happen. As such, he will continue to enjoy 10 minutes of ice time and will be a healthy scratch approximately 25 times this season. Chances of sticking: 99%.
Joel Perrault, Phoenix. Perrault had a great camp and a strong start to the season, becoming a Gretzky favorite early on. A rib injury derailed things, and he has yet to get on track. Chances of sticking: 75%.
Alexei Kaigorodov, Ottawa. Although the Sens seldom use the Russian offensive dynamo, they will be forced to return him to his Russian team if the were to cut him from the roster. Selfishly, they hang onto him like the child that just ate six Mars bars and refuses to share that seventh one. It will be mid-season by the time Ottawa is faced with that tenth game decision for Kaigorodov. Chances of sticking: 65%.
Jiri Novotny, Buffalo. Novotny was ready for the NHL, although with the abundance of depth up front, making this team was not a given. Letting J-P Dumont walk, and waiving Chris Thorburn, cleared the way for Novotny. He is getting solid ice time (14 minutes) and should pot about 40 points this year. Chances of sticking: 99%.
www.dobberhockey.com
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The Magical 10th Game 
