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2338 Posts |
 Posted - 08/30/2009 : 20:14:58
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Poolies are always trying to find that edge. We’re always looking for that new angle to look at statistics and twist them to our liking. We can make a player who had 15 points in 46 games look like a gem by drilling down into his ice time and pulling out his points per minute played. Or if that doesn’t work, how about his points per shift? Or his points per second of power-play time? Or his points on so-and-so’s line versus off of it? So many ways to look at it and if you find the right one, you can ‘prove’ that your guy is a future stud. Encouraging this dream world, www.DobberHockey.com now has the Frozen Pool section, where you can manipulate stats to your heart’s desire. Start analyzing and you become lost, as I was with my latest findings.
I pulled all the forwards and their points and time on the ice. I wiped out all players with fewer than three points. I then only looked at, out of that group, the 150 forwards who saw the fewest total minutes. At this point, I sorted by minutes per point and ‘voila’, what we are left with is another new way of showing how good your player will be.
Player GP PTS TOI ATOI toi/pt
Kariya, Paul LW STL 11 15 199.1 18.1 13.3
Gaborik, Marian RW NYR 17 23 339.9 20.0 14.8
Filatov, Nikita LW CLB 8 4 65.0 8.1 16.3
Brassard, Derick C CLB 31 25 446.9 14.4 17.9
Briere, Danny C PHI 29 25 454.0 15.7 18.2
Leino, Ville LW DET 13 9 165.2 12.7 18.4
Ebbett, Andrew C ANA 48 32 665.7 13.9 20.8
Williams, Jeremy LW DET 11 7 147.8 13.4 21.1
Brunnstrom, F. LW DAL 55 29 639.1 11.6 22.0
Sturm, Marco LW BOS 19 13 304.5 16.0 23.4
Giroux, Claude RW PHI 42 27 636.7 15.2 23.6
Lundmark, Jamie C CGY 27 16 378.8 14.0 23.7
Morrow, Brenden LW DAL 18 15 384.3 21.4 25.6
Shannon, Ryan C OTT 35 20 527.5 15.1 26.4
Fehr, Eric RW WAS 61 25 686.8 11.3 27.5
O'Reilly, Cal C NSH 11 5 138.6 12.6 27.7
Potulny, Ryan C EDM 8 3 83.9 10.5 28.0
Avery, Sean LW NYR 41 22 645.8 15.8 29.4
Afinogenov, M. RW BUF 48 20 605.1 12.6 30.3
Torres, Raffi LW CLB 51 20 617.0 12.1 30.8
Jones, Ryan RW NSH 46 17 526.0 11.4 30.9
Conner, Chris RW PIT 38 13 415.5 10.9 32.0
Hansen, Jannik RW VAN 55 21 688.4 12.5 32.8
Purcell, Teddy RW LA 40 16 540.6 13.5 33.8
D'Agostini, Matt RW MON 53 21 710.7 13.4 33.8
Lisin, Enver RW NYR 48 21 712.0 14.8 33.9
Stewart, Chris RW COL 53 19 653.2 12.3 34.4
Miller, Drew LW TB 27 10 350.6 13.0 35.1
Moller, Oscar C LA 40 15 534.8 13.4 35.7
Brule, Gilbert C EDM 11 3 108.6 9.9 36.2
Pouliot, M.A. C EDM 63 20 724.8 11.5 36.2
Prucha, Petr LW PHO 47 19 690.3 14.7 36.3
We’ll remove veterans Brendan Shanahan, Mats Sundin and Joe Sakic, as they have either retired or are on the decline. We’ll remove border-line NHLers who are either in Europe or have little upside: Keith Aucoin, Steve Regier, Mike Iggulden, Boyd Devereaux, Lukas Kaspar, Landon Wilson, Jason Jaffray, Joakim Lindstrom, Jeff Hamilton, Matt Ellis, Arron Asham, Zack Stortini and Jonathan Kalinski. The above chart shows the top 32 players who remain.
The five names at the top are unsurprising, but some names grab your attention. Given that top six ice time is approximately 17 to 18 minutes or more per game, the bottom portion of this list implies a 40-point pace had that player played all 82 games in the top six. But with power-play time, maturity and experience things could certainly improve.
Observations:
- Williams sure sticks out. Leaf fans would know that most of his points happened immediately. Williams is notorious for riding the wave of adrenalin from a call-up and then tapering off after a few games. In rotisserie leagues, he would make a fantastic midseason pickup if the Wings lost a couple of key guys to injury. Just be sure to drop him again after a week or two.
- Brunnstrom and Leino are sure to see more ice time (and NHL games). It’s always a good sign when an unproven European produces during what little ice time he is given.
- Lundmark looked real good when he was subbing in for an injured Daymond Langkow. If the latter gets hurt again, you know where to turn.
- I’ve been telling everyone and their grandmother that Shannon is an excellent dark horse for this season. Of course, I said that last year too… Will he get more ice time? Not if the Sens keep Dany Heatley. The signing of Alexei Kovalev saw to that. Some roster space needs to be created first.
- Fehr on this list is surprising. Let’s see if his role increases in training camp. Either way, he’ll be hot and cold – that’s his M.O.
- Please Mr. Trotz – let O’Reilly be your third-line center. You won’t be disappointed (and neither will us poolies).
- There is no room in Edmonton’s top six, so if Potulny impresses Pat Quinn enough to make the team, it will be at the expense of a big name like Robert Nilsson.
- Conner produces when called upon. You saw this for two years in Dallas. Now he is in Pittsburgh where everyone gets rotated on the Crosby or Malkin line at some point. If the music stops and he is sitting in one of those comfy chairs, I wonder what he could do?
- The additions of Cody Hodgson and Mikael Samuelsson, as well as the skill set that Rick Rypien offers, will see to it that Hansen will not get a chance this year. He deserves one, though, given the production here.
- Purcell will make the team, but the acquisition of Ryan Smyth hurts his chance of building on this.
- Lisin and Miller are in new cities. Their role could go three ways – more, less, or same. Given the above, a bigger role will mean decent numbers.
http://www.dobberhockey.com/
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