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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
 Posted - 08/03/2011 : 13:53:19
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The arbitrator has ruled that Weber gets a 1 yr/7.5M deal for next year, after which he will be an RFA. NSH was asking for a 4.75M deal, so this is obviously well above what they wanted to pay, and represents a significant investment for a small market team.
Because NSH chose to take Weber to arbitration, they are forced to accept the contract - however, what will NSH do? Will they hang on to him and try to negotiate a long term deal for less of a cap hit next year? Or do they realize that to keep Weber (and Rinne and Suter) after this coming season is going to be more than they want to handle, and start offloading?
On a side note - what does this sort of deal do for Doughty?
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2011 : 14:05:59
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http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=373133
here's the link to the story, I really don't know what Nashville will do longterm but with this contract they move just above the cap floor so i suspect they will do nothign for this season and see at the end of this season what they want to do as a franchise,, but i do think 4.75 is a joke and the preds should becarefull not to insult their best player like that it may make him want to pakc up and move on out of music city,,
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Guest4178
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Posted - 08/03/2011 : 14:23:10
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Just my first reaction, but I think Shea Weber hit a "home run."
Yes, $4.75 million from Nashville was a joke, but Weber was seeking $8.5 million, which was too much for a 1-year deal.
Chara is listed on Cap Geek at $8.5 million for this season (which puts him in 8th place overall), but his cap hit averages out to $6.5 million for his 7-year $45.5 million dollar deal with the Bruins.
Christian Erhoff appears to be the highest paid defenseman at $10 million for the 2011-2012 season, but his contract is front-loaded in a big way. His cap hit (and actual average salary) works out to $4 million a season, based on his 10-year $40 million deal with the Sabres.
I haven't checked out the average salaries for other defensemen, but I think Weber's $7.5 million must be the highest, or near the highest.
There's no question that Shea Weber is a better defenseman than Erhoff, but is he worth more than Zdeno Chara? I don't think so, but maybe Chara is underpaid?
I would rate Chara and Weber very closely in value, so if I was the arbitrator, I would have awarded Weber $6.5 - $7 million.
Nuxfan makes a good point – what kind of deal will Doughty get, and based in part on the Weber deal?
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2011 : 15:25:43
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest4178
Just my first reaction, but I think Shea Weber hit a "home run."
Yes, $4.75 million from Nashville was a joke, but Weber was seeking $8.5 million, which was too much for a 1-year deal.
Chara is listed on Cap Geek at $8.5 million for this season (which puts him in 8th place overall), but his cap hit averages out to $6.5 million for his 7-year $45.5 million dollar deal with the Bruins.
Christian Erhoff appears to be the highest paid defenseman at $10 million for the 2011-2012 season, but his contract is front-loaded in a big way. His cap hit (and actual average salary) works out to $4 million a season, based on his 10-year $40 million deal with the Sabres.
I haven't checked out the average salaries for other defensemen, but I think Weber's $7.5 million must be the highest, or near the highest.
There's no question that Shea Weber is a better defenseman than Erhoff, but is he worth more than Zdeno Chara? I don't think so, but maybe Chara is underpaid?
I would rate Chara and Weber very closely in value, so if I was the arbitrator, I would have awarded Weber $6.5 - $7 million.
Nuxfan makes a good point – what kind of deal will Doughty get, and based in part on the Weber deal?
Right now i wouldn't have to think about it for a second in my opinion Weaber is the best d man in the league, and again imo much better than Chara, but of course this is my opinion, Chara is a terrific d man and i certainly wouldn't call you stupid if you would chose Chara over Weaber, but in my mind if any d man in the league is worth 7.5 million it is Weaber, I would think Doughty would be awarded less based on the fact Weaber has been in the league for 6 season and been a top defender for the last 4, i'm not saying Doughty won't be better or as good just sayin Weaber has proven more
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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fat_elvis_rocked
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
902 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2011 : 15:30:33
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I can't say I blame Weber for wanting to perhaps 'stick it' to Preds management. Is 7.5 too much? Maybe,
If he made 4.5 last season, and the Predators idea of a counter offer to his 8.5 request was, as I think I read it, 4.75???, then I can kinda see where Weber gets justification. That is kind of an insulting raise offer for a Norris candidate, and franchise player.
If I remember correctly reading about this a while ago, it was the Predators who asked for arbitration, please correct me if I'm wrong, but if so, then what the hell were they thinking? That they would get away with that paltry increase offer?
I hope it's not a sign of contractual strife, similar to the years before the last lock-out, on the horizon, but it is certainly not a great situation, especially for one-year, where they will have no choice but to pony up, or trade their star D-man, and hope that if he does want to stay, and negotiate a long term deal, that this doesn't leave a sour taste, pushing him out of their plans.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2011 : 15:37:33
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its hard to say if Weber is the best of the best - I would say he is in an elite group of 7 or 8 dmen that are all capable of:
- playing 28+ min/game
- playing in all situations
- scoring 40-60 points a season, in all situations
- clear cut #1 dmen on any team they play on.
That list includes Weber, Chara, Keith, Lidstrom, Doughty, Pronger, and Boyle. You might argue Phaneuf and Boumeester also deserve to be there, but not in terms of points in recent years. Letang and Visnovsky might also be there.
But in terms of those true elite dmen in the entire NHL, Weber is a member. In that group, Weber's actual dollar salary is not out of line. His cap hit is however - which makes the 1 year deal hard for NSH to like.
quote:
If I remember correctly reading about this a while ago, it was the Predators who asked for arbitration, please correct me if I'm wrong, but if so, then what the hell were they thinking? That they would get away with that paltry increase offer?
Remember, this is arbitration - we don't get a lot of insight into what goes on inside these, and NSH looking for a 4.75M deal might be a regular tactic - their job is to minimize the player's achievements as much as possible, and undercut players. There is a reason that neither team nor player ever want to go to arbitration, and this might be part of the reason. |
Edited by - nuxfan on 08/03/2011 15:41:19 |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2011 : 16:04:50
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Because Nashville asked for arbitration apparently they have to accept this salary and pony up, also they did offer Weaber 6 million for 10 years but he wanted a short term contract, 4.75 million was just the number they submit to the arbitraitor same as 8.5 is the nuimber Weaber submitted, is what i am coming to understand im not sure how much truth their is to all this
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2011 : 16:45:38
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they do have to accept the award, but they don't have to keep Weber. IMO this is the year we see what kind of team NSH wants to be - small market or for real.
Weber is the first stone to drop, they have Suter and Rinne as UFA after this season. It will cost them 15-18M to keep all 3 of them beyond this season, which would take them to near the cap. NSH have never been a cap-spending team, so for them keeping all 3 would be a big departure from their MO up until now. If they do not feel they have deep enough pockets to be that cap spending team, then look for things to start changing this season. |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2011 : 05:04:18
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I thought to myself, as Nashville chose to take Weber to arbitration, "Self - what the hell is Nashville thinking?!?"
Who knows.
They insult Weber with a total lowball offer - going by today's market. There is no getting around this, it is rather insulting going by the standard set by the other top 10 defencemen in the league. I guess they thought that because of their low-scoring, defensive system that basically downgrades any good player' worth by reducing their stats, or maybe they were looking for a hometown discount.
What Weber's agent was asking for - 8.5 mil - IS a bit high, but not ridiculously so (again, going by today's market). But clearly, even with highball or lowball offers here . . . a difference of 4 million is a chasm - and clearly, it was management that was deluded, as shown by the arbitrator's decision.
I think Weber is going. You can't insult and then take your captain to arbitration, then expect him to be happy, no matter what the result. And going by Nashville's management record of cheap contracts . . . I simply can't see Weber being kept by them. They are just too frugal, and don't have the leeway to be able to be saddled with a big contract for a player that may get injured/become ordinary in a few years.
I think this is the beginning of the end for Weber in Nashville, and he gets dealt this year, possibly mid season.
I am about to downgrade my expectations for Nashville this season, folks!
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2011 : 05:14:57
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quote:
Originally posted by slozo
I thought to myself, as Nashville chose to take Weber to arbitration, "Self - what the hell is Nashville thinking?!?"
Who knows.
They insult Weber with a total lowball offer - going by today's market. There is no getting around this, it is rather insulting going by the standard set by the other top 10 defencemen in the league. I guess they thought that because of their low-scoring, defensive system that basically downgrades any good player' worth by reducing their stats, or maybe they were looking for a hometown discount.
What Weber's agent was asking for - 8.5 mil - IS a bit high, but not ridiculously so (again, going by today's market). But clearly, even with highball or lowball offers here . . . a difference of 4 million is a chasm - and clearly, it was management that was deluded, as shown by the arbitrator's decision.
I think Weber is going. You can't insult and then take your captain to arbitration, then expect him to be happy, no matter what the result. And going by Nashville's management record of cheap contracts . . . I simply can't see Weber being kept by them. They are just too frugal, and don't have the leeway to be able to be saddled with a big contract for a player that may get injured/become ordinary in a few years.
I think this is the beginning of the end for Weber in Nashville, and he gets dealt this year, possibly mid season.
I am about to downgrade my expectations for Nashville this season, folks!
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug
His contract does bring them up to the cap floor so i could see them keeping him for all of this season seeing how he is still a RFA at the end, but from what i undserstood the preds wanted to get him inked long term and he was not willing to comit longterm, so i do think you are right this is the begining of the end but i think they may trade him more at the deadline or in the offseason since he is still an RFA at the end of this coming season...
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2011 : 08:23:35
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Hey guys, just one thing to add here.
The reason Nashville chose the team induced arbitration was that takes him off the table for any offer sheets. Same as Parise. If the team forces arbitration, no offer sheet. For that reason, smart move by Nashville because I can all but guarentee that a team would have offered over $7 million a season, maybe even $8 to get their hands on Weber. This decision for team created arbitration kept most of the control with the team.
Not only that, the Pred now have another full season to try to work a future deal. Weber will still be an RFA next season, not a UFA. So the team can do arbitration again if they wanted to (although I see no value in that) but they also have until next July for a long term deal.
I think the $4.75 million offer was insulting as well, but the owner holds the cards. As an RFA, the player has recourse and in this case the player did well. I don't see a trade coming. I see a long term deal in the range of around $6-7 million/season over 5-6 years. That's top end money over the length of the agreement when looking at that elite list that Nuxfan posted and the money they are making. |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2011 : 08:27:33
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SWEET!!!! Weber to Vancouver! Weber to Vancouver!
Sorry Slozo, wanted to beat any Leaf fans to the punch. 
All kidding aside, i completely agree, this could very easily be the beginning of the end of his time in Music City! I think i mentioned last year, amidst rumours that he could be moved and i think this solidifies that somewhat. Maybe we're all wrong and he'll re-up, but it certainly is a strange way that Nashville's managment has gone about it?  |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2011 : 09:06:27
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Actually, talking to one of my hockey buddies today, I can totally see at least one team that would certainly go after Weber in a big deal:
Detroit.
This might be Lidstrom's last year, and with Rafalski retired, Weber would instantly vault Detroit back into top contender status again (if you don't have them there already - I don't).
Yeah, I could see Vancouver chasing him too, wasn't there a strong rumour about him going there in a trade about a year or so ago?
No, the Leafs are full up on defensive depth. If the Leafs season crashes this year because of defensive failings once again, and they allow Weber to go RFA . . . I could see it. but really, no - won't happen.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2011 : 09:20:55
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quote:
I think the $4.75 million offer was insulting as well, but the owner holds the cards. As an RFA, the player has recourse and in this case the player did well. I don't see a trade coming. I see a long term deal in the range of around $6-7 million/season over 5-6 years. That's top end money over the length of the agreement when looking at that elite list that Nuxfan posted and the money they are making.
According to other sources, Weber turned down a 10yr/60M deal from NSH during the season. I'm not sure that he would sign an even shorter deal for that same 6M per year with NSH. But we'll see what happens in the coming year.
quote:
Actually, talking to one of my hockey buddies today, I can totally see at least one team that would certainly go after Weber in a big deal:
Detroit.
This might be Lidstrom's last year, and with Rafalski retired, Weber would instantly vault Detroit back into top contender status again (if you don't have them there already - I don't).
Yeah, I could see Vancouver chasing him too, wasn't there a strong rumour about him going there in a trade about a year or so ago?
I would think a lot of teams would want to get their hands on Weber, DET would certainly be one of them. However, I don't know what they have to offer, that doesn't affect their current team. They don't have a lot of high end prospects, and their draft picks are guaranteed lower third.
Yeah, the rumour mills continue to spin in VAN about what it would take to get Weber. It would be a disruption for VAN as well - they don't have the cap space to add 7M per season without moving 7M elsewhere. However, I do think that VAN could put together a package that would interest NSH - Ballard (he would have to be part of that deal, for cap room alone, but his lower cap hit would make NSH happy), Hodgson, maybe even Schneider as well (although NSH is deep in goaltending) would be a starting point.
The other question is how does he blend on a defense that has been built on parity vs the superstar approach. How do you explain to Bieksa or Hamhuis, who just took pay cuts to be in Vancouver because the unofficial dman cap is 4.5M, that you're suddenly changing gears and going to splurge on a big name? |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2011 : 10:17:54
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Weber to Edmonton Ales Hemsky, any combination of 2 prospects that does not include Hall, Eberle, or Hopkins, and a 1nd round draft pick.
That sounds about right, doesn't it???? Nashville then resigns Suter as their stud defensemen (al beit not as offensively talented as Weber), resigns Rinne (or trades him as they have Anders Lindback as well) and has more than enough cash to resign Hemsky. Plus, plus they have some talented young players such as a Lander/Paajarvi or Plante/Petry and a 1st round pick.
Make the deal. 
Detroit makes a lot of sense. Not only would they have the money to make the deal, but Detroit is a proven winner for the past 20 years. Who wouldn't want to try to walk in Lidstrom shoes and have a legitimate shot at filling them??? |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2011 : 11:04:09
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Weber to Edmonton Ales Hemsky, any combination of 2 prospects that does not include Hall, Eberle, or Hopkins, and a 1nd round draft pick.
That sounds about right, doesn't it???? Nashville then resigns Suter as their stud defensemen (al beit not as offensively talented as Weber), resigns Rinne (or trades him as they have Anders Lindback as well) and has more than enough cash to resign Hemsky. Plus, plus they have some talented young players such as a Lander/Paajarvi or Plante/Petry and a 1st round pick.
Make the deal.
Detroit makes a lot of sense. Not only would they have the money to make the deal, but Detroit is a proven winner for the past 20 years. Who wouldn't want to try to walk in Lidstrom shoes and have a legitimate shot at filling them???
one thing about the trade is it changes what the preds will want in return depending on what time of the year it is, for example if he is traded now or sometime during the season they need to get some salary back but salary that will be off the books after this season in order to meet the cap floor, but then money in the offseason for Rinne and Suter, so beans your hemsky thing could make sence
"I led the league in "Go get 'em next time." - Bob Uecker
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Guest5203
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Posted - 08/09/2011 : 10:41:08
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| what will they do? relocate |
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Weber gets 7.5M - what will NSH do? 
