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leigh
Moderator
Canada
1755 Posts |
 Posted - 07/16/2008 : 22:12:52
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Shawn Horcoff just signed a 6 year deal for $33 million. Not sure about the disbursement but that seems high to me. He's an 80 point guy tops I think. $5.5 million a year seems a little high, no? Hey Beans, and you other Edmonton fans, enlighten me; was this a good deal for the club?
http://www.pickuphockey.com/hockeynews.aspx?article=7011633003
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99pickles
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
671 Posts |
Posted - 07/16/2008 : 22:18:15
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| $5.5M just isn't that much anymore. And even if it is a little high right now, by the time you hit year 3 there will be many players at $5.5M...lesser players than he. And by the time you hit year 5 it will be quite a bargain. Unless he bottoms out, of course. |
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Pasty7
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
2312 Posts |
Posted - 07/17/2008 : 16:19:08
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quote:
Originally posted by 99pickles
$5.5M just isn't that much anymore. And even if it is a little high right now, by the time you hit year 3 there will be many players at $5.5M...lesser players than he. And by the time you hit year 5 it will be quite a bargain. Unless he bottoms out, of course.
i agree the only way this is a bad deal is if his point totals drop if he maintains the same,,, not to mention the possible upside good deal,, a deal i would make
Pasty |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 07/18/2008 : 11:50:31
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Couple of things:
1) Any Oiler fan will tell you that Horcoff does so much more than score. He is one of the few actual 1st line centres in the league who is also their team's #1 penalty killer. He is also a true leader and is a lifetime Oiler.
2) Horcoff was at a point a game pace last year until his injury. He is not a natural scorer and putting up a point a game on a line without a natural scorer is pretty impressive. Imagine if the Oiler do land a Hossa type player for the first line.
3) 80 points is pretty f'in good in today's NHL. How many players had over 80 points last season?? Try 19. That's 19 players of the 852 who laced up the skates last year. That means only the top 2% of the players in the NHL actually score 80 points or more. Or, looking at it differently. There are generally 18 skaters/team (12 forwards + 6 defense), meaning there are 540 "regular" players in the league at any given time. 80+ point scorers are in the top 3.5%
4) An 80 point scoring centre is in the top 10 centres in the league.
The deal doesn't kick in until next season and it is:
$7 million, $6.5 million, $6.5 million, $6 million, $4 million, $3 million.
Horcoff is 29 years old. That means in 4 years (at 33 years old), he will be making $6 million. How many other teams will be able to say their #1 centre is making that?? I would say very few.
Is it a good deal?? Not sure. Most of the contract that Lowe have signed are "proof in the pudding" contract. Meaning if the player does what they should, the deal is fantastic. If they are anything less than their potentail, the deal looks stupid.
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leigh
Moderator
Canada
1755 Posts |
Posted - 07/18/2008 : 12:14:54
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hey slow down there beans. I meant he is an 80 point guy MAXIMUM. As in, he has not done it yet! I mean...if he's lucky ie: a one time fluke thing (assuming he does have "Hossa" playing beside him. Am I clear? 
I think he'll average more like 60 points over the course of the contract. His best year was 3 years ago and that was only 73 points. In the 4 seasons before that he never broke 40. Now that he's in his prime he's only put up 50 and 51 points in the last two years (that's 104 players higher up than him by the way )
Don't get me wrong, I like Horcoff, he's obviously a heart and soul guy, you know, one of those true character guys who leads by example. I've never seen him put in a half-assed effort, but 5.5 million a year for 60ish points a season? I think maybe pickles is right 5.5 just isn't much anymore. |
Edited by - leigh on 07/18/2008 12:19:37 |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 07/18/2008 : 15:08:54
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Hey Leigh, did you notice that the 51 points he put up last year was in 53 games??? He was on pace for 80 last season before he was hurt.
Over the past three years he has 174 points in 212 games. Sure, not record breaking, but 0.82 PPG puts him at an average of a shade under 70 points. That's producing on a team that has missed the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 seasons.
If you think about it, he is getting the same money as Hossa?? When you look at it that way, definately not a great deal. However, if he averages 70+ points a season with a couple in the 80's or even 90s's, that's a solid deal.
As I said, K-Lowe's deal are all future potential. Just like Gilbert's deal, he will look like a hero or a goat.
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leigh
Moderator
Canada
1755 Posts |
Posted - 07/18/2008 : 18:09:20
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
Hey Leigh, did you notice that the 51 points he put up last year was in 53 games??? He was on pace for 80 last season before he was hurt. .....
Yes I did notice that...but, let's be honest, it means diddly if the next year he put up 50 in 80 games. Injuries are a part of the game and he get's paid the same. If the Oilers don't have to pay him during any injury time then it's a great deal but that's not the way it works. |
Edited by - leigh on 07/18/2008 18:10:05 |
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99pickles
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
671 Posts |
Posted - 07/19/2008 : 03:17:15
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
The deal doesn't kick in until next season and it is:
$7 million, $6.5 million, $6.5 million, $6 million, $4 million, $3 million.
Horcoff is 29 years old. That means in 4 years (at 33 years old), he will be making $6 million.
However, let's not forget about Cap Hit vs Contract Terms.
It's $5.5M per year for the lifetime of the contract. If he performs fairly consistently through most of the contract, he will be a very good value by the last couple of years. Actually, the fact that the contract doesn't start until next year is huge. That means he begins $5.5M NEXT year...do any of us realize how many guys will be at that amount after next year's FA season? Many...
Just wanted to add: He will also be an excellent buy-out value by years 5 and 6 too! |
Edited by - 99pickles on 07/19/2008 03:19:09 |
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hockster
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
437 Posts |
Posted - 07/19/2008 : 14:34:48
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| this is a good signing, because though hes not the most skilled, he is the oilers most valuable player |
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99pickles
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
671 Posts |
Posted - 07/20/2008 : 02:00:21
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To judge him, or any player, by stats alone is a mistake. Players bring more to the table than just our fantasy stats.
Even if he doesn't bring 1+ pts/game over the lifetime of this contract, he will provide much more intangible value to the team beyond that.
It doesn't seem outlandish to pay one of your core guys $5.5M per season (starting next summer, mind you).
Just wait until we see who signs for $6M + next summer!! |
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Guest9874
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Posted - 07/20/2008 : 06:35:08
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quote:
Originally posted by 99pickles
Just wait until we see who signs for $6M + next summer!!
you keep comin back to that argument, its a good one, but id laugh so hard if the salary cap fell next yr or no big name free agents madea deal and lowe ended up lookin like a fool lol |
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leigh
Moderator
Canada
1755 Posts |
Posted - 07/20/2008 : 11:46:21
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Yes there are intangibles in the game; we've been over then lots in the past; heart, leadership etc. but you have to look at stats, and at a certain dollar amount (definitely at 5.5 mil) you have to look at point stats...so let's look at another stat of Horcoff's...
PLUS / MINUS
in his total NHL career he is +1. Now many of you will say that +/- is a team stat, ok, so then in 7 years he must have played with a few good players. Well his best year is +10 in 02/03. Since then he has be 0, 0, -22 and +1. Wow! That is pretty bad, no?
As I said before, the kid's got heart and he seems like a quality guy (at least in the interviews I've seen) but is that enough to get $5.5 million? Because his stats don't show it....yet. |
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Horcoff stays in Edmonton for $33 million! 
