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Alex
PickupHockey All-Star
Canada
2816 Posts |
 Posted - 12/16/2007 : 14:56:44
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No, I am saying, let's look at all the goals Gretzky had no part in. Now, assume they have an average of 1.5 assists, not two, and see how his percentage goes though the roof
Habs get number 25 this year |
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andyhack
PickupHockey Pro
Japan
891 Posts |
Posted - 12/16/2007 : 17:27:04
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Okay Alex, let's try it at 2.5 then (1.5 assists plus the goal being 2.5).
Gretzky's percentage of total Oiler points in '83/84 is: 205/(446 X 2.5) = 18.4%
So, now for the big question, how many goals in today's game does Gretzky's team get? Guest-san seems to be pointing to the highest scoring team now and is projecting 283 as that figure. Beans-san seems to be imagining a scenario where Gretzky is still playing with Coffey, Messier etc, and is projecting 360 as that figure (and as mentioned in my last post Beans-san isn't factoring in the possibility that even the '80s powerhouse Oiler team ain't gonna be scoring quite so much more than the others because of increased parity in the league).
As we really have no idea, as a compromise, let's split the difference between 280 and 360 and call it 320 goals for Gretzky's 2007-2008 team (which coincidentally is pretty close to the 327 figure which I mentioned in my last post after multiplying today's average offence by 1.42 to guess at what the '80s Oilers might score today - as the Oilers were 42% above average back then).
So, using 320 goals and 1.5 assists per goal, here is what we get:
.184 X (320 X 2.5) = 147 points
147 points. And that would seem to have an assumption built into it that Wayne is playing on a significantly more offensive team than today's Wings, let alone a team like Crosby's Penguins.
Is 147 points amazing? YES
Is 147 points "substantially" lower than 200? YES - But I guess it depends on your definition of "substantially". Whatever way you want to describe it though, it's more than just a few points lower. It's enough of a difference to mention and to stay within the realm of logic. |
Edited by - andyhack on 12/16/2007 17:29:29 |
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