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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
 Posted - 03/22/2010 : 10:27:52
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Beans:
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As having to repeat myself is the theme of the day, as I said in the past, if he is a PPG player for the next 5 seasons, then the deal is absolutely dead on. But if not, it's a la Horcoff. Remember that guy, great in the face off circle. 70 pt. season, all the intangibles??
If Kesler ends up a PPG player over the life of this contract, I'll be first in line to proclaim Gillis the best GM Vancouver ever had. Do a search for "point per game players nhl", see the pretty small group of players that have done that over, say, the last 3 years (min 70 games). Names like Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Iginla, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Thorton, Nash come up, among others. Then, narrow that list further to players that are primary PK players and don't play on the #1 PP unit on their teams. The list is pretty small.
If Kesler can do that, then I'll consider 5M/year a steal.
Alex116:
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I'll be the first to admit, if Kesler doesn't keep up this sort of production we've seen this year IN THE LEAST (if not, improve further), he'll be overpaid and it could strap the Canucks. However, i maintain that if he was in a position to receive an offer sheet, it'd have been 5mil minimum and likely more. The Canucks have avoided what could have been a messy situation by locking him up and keeping him a happy camper.
I'll personally be happy if Kesler can hit 70 points per year over the life of the contract. This signing is not for offensive capabilities alone, he brings so much to the defensive side as well. I'll forgo some points in order to keep the awesome PK abilities. There are not a lot of players out there that get 70 points per season that are killing penalties and are not on the #1 PP unit.
As for Horcoff, I'm not worried that this will end up a Horcoff situation. Someone else pointed the differences in situations above - there is a big difference between getting lots of points as Hemsky's centre and getting points centering a mixed bag of rookies/callups, Burrows, Samuelsson, Raymond, etc. I don't think we've seen the best of Kesler yet, but no doubt Oiler fans were saying the same thing about Horcoff the year he signed. As with any contract, you won't know if it was good value until its over.
One way or another, I'm glad its over - it was certainly going to be a messy summer if this had been allowed to go to arbitration and RFA offer sheets had started pouring in. Beans, you're right that offer sheets are always overvalued, which is why I'm certain that we would have seen sheets in the 3yr/18M range for Kesler, teams are desperate for help up front and will do that to get guys (read: Edmonton and Vanek). I suspect Burkie would be in there, Phili would make another run at him (although I'm not sure how they could do so without dumping), and STL would have tried because we pissed them off last year with Backes. The Canucks would have grudgingly matched and that would have been that, but we would have been paying more than we are now.
I remember the last time Phili made an offer to him and we matched - almost unanimously people felt we were overpaying for Kesler at the time, hated that we matched, etc. Good thing we did. |
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Guest4339
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Posted - 03/22/2010 : 10:51:50
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
quote:
Originally posted by Alex116
6393....very good points made. I think it's very important that teams keep their top players happy and avoiding arbitration is huge.
I totally understand that it's a risk in that Kesler could end up like Horcoff but you can't really tell. Kesler has made steady progression to where he is today. A lot of people when looking at his point totals prob don't realize / remember that Kesler was brought along as a 3rd line checker and it wasn't until he developed and / or got the opportunity to showcase a scoring touch that he moved up the depth chart.
I'll be the first to admit, if Kesler doesn't keep up this sort of production we've seen this year IN THE LEAST (if not, improve further), he'll be overpaid and it could strap the Canucks. However, i maintain that if he was in a position to receive an offer sheet, it'd have been 5mil minimum and likely more. The Canucks have avoided what could have been a messy situation by locking him up and keeping him a happy camper.
Wow, some common ground!! That's nice to see.
I agree with 95% of this. One thing I disagree with is that the an offer sheet would have been bigger than $5 million or would even come at all. First of all, the likes of Jokinin, Whitney, Frolov, Plekanec, Marleau, Holmstrom, Ponikarovksy, and Armstrong are just some of the UFA's that are on the list this year. Couple that with the likes of Ryan, Wolski, Wheeler, Pavelski, and Setogouchi as RFA's there is a ton on the market.
Secondly, a $5 million offer means a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick. If the offer goes over $5.2 million, that means 2-1st', a 2nd and a 3rd. All due respect to Ryan Kesler, even his biggest fans would say that is too much to give up for Kesler.
Now, to something that is dear to my heart. Keeping your players happy by overpaying them to avoid arbitration is a serious mistake. It's foolish management and it makes no sense in any situation. Bottom line is that most players take a discount to stay in the place they want to play, they don't demand an over payment. They get paid to play. They don't like the deal, to bad. Arbitration is there for exactly that purpose. If a team and a player(agent) can't agree, they let a mediator agree for them.
I say Bollocks, you get offered a fair contract and you play or you don't play and don't get paid or go to the KHL or whatever.
Look at the Nashville Predators, they have made a living off paying players fair market value. They don't have a single contract with a cap hit more then $4.5 million and their overall cap hit is $44 million.
You don't have to sell the farm to pay a player what they are worth.
Beans, I agree with most of what you said except that that the overpayment in this case is about 500k, give or take. I think this is hardly "selling the farm". You can be a tough as nails negotiator if you want, each GM has their own style.
Let's take your Nashville example, how many players are lining up to sign there and play for them? If you reward certain players, you send a message that you value players that play with heart and give it their all and players will be loyal. You can be a hard ass to every player, but what message does that send? |
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Guest6840
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Posted - 03/22/2010 : 11:51:00
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
quote:
Originally posted by Guest2114
Malkin. You lose Beans.
It appears that my meaning of 'legitimate' was missed.
Malkin, on pretty much every team in the NHL outside of maybe Pitt, Wash, and SJ, is a #1 centre. That makes him a legitimate #1 centre playing on a team with 2-legitimate #1 centres.
To give you some examples of some #2 centres:
Mike Fisher, Joe Pavelski, Scott Gomez, Tim Connelly, Saku Koivu, Kris Versteeg, etc.
Ya Malkin is the highest class second line player or maybe it is Semin; yet in my opinion Malkin should be Pittsburgh #1 center because he is a better leader. (and also a better player, mainly just because of leadership though) |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2010 : 12:02:04
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest4339
Let's take your Nashville example, how many players are lining up to sign there and play for them? If you reward certain players, you send a message that you value players that play with heart and give it their all and players will be loyal. You can be a hard ass to every player, but what message does that send?
The point is that it doesn't matter if players are lining up or not. Free Agency is so highly over rated it's sick and more than 1/2 (I might even say 2/3) of all free agent contracts are overpayments and do not make a team better anyway.
Look through the best teams in the league today and tell me how many were built through free agency??
And why would Nashville care if they have a line up of free agents. They make the playoffs 4 out of 5 years having one of the lowest payrolls in the NHL and rarely getting early 1st round draft picks.
By paying Kesler what they did(even if only a slight overpayment) the Canucks management is telling their players to have a super hot season and then bend them over a barrel.
Think of it this way, last year at this time there would have been outrage at a $5 million deal for Kesler. This is a hot season. Again, if it keeps up, awesome. Fair deal to say the least. But if he slips, even a little bit, the deal is bunk. |
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Guest4167
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Posted - 03/22/2010 : 12:32:26
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| i have now read through every posting and can not figure out why kesler is viewed as being a bad signing basically by only one poster ...BEANS... HE WOULD BE AN INVALUABLE ASSET on any team in this league at that price . he is a complete hockey player which every coach wishes his team would be loaded with . he is getting his point total while killing penalties on the second PP unit with second line wingers at best and not to mention the d men on the PP. you have to look at the quality of players he plays with at all times and there has been many diff combinations and from what i watch and see of him he makes everyone of them a better player. what would his point totals be if he was slotted in on the wing with the sedins ??? of the charts i am sure !!!! but he is so much more than a pure scorer.... he plays against the other teams elite players and still is a plus player not to mention the effective penalty killing. being on the ice against that kind of fire power game in and game out and producing at the same time puts him in elite company...who in there right mind would not pay good money for a player who can do all of those things and so much more....get off your high horse beans and tell me as a gm you would not pay him this as part of the core of your team ....i am sure you will...and will make me raise my eyebrows and then laugh some more ....hahahaha |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2010 : 12:36:29
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I would pay him, but not $5 million a season.
I never took anything away from his abilities. In fact, through this I do have a deeper respect for his productivity. Still don't like the way he plays the game, but that is irrelevant.
And to that 'one poster' comment, might to head over to the poll question regarding Kesler and notice that more people have voted for his value to be less than $5 million than those who voted for $5 million or more. As a member, I only get one vote.
I wonder who all those other people are?? |
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Guest4167
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Posted - 03/22/2010 : 12:58:35
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| by 'one poster' it is meant the only who seems to be willing to go down with ship and continue to argue the fact that he is not worth it...but with you it is obvious that no matter what point is brought up in support of kesler's worthyou will refute it till you drown with your ship ...but this is why everyone is entitled too there opinion . i with most of the other posts i have read would love to keep a guy with the great value and huge upside a player like kesler has so in short agree to disagree i do ... and kudos to van for keeping a valuable asset happy |
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Guest4167
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Posted - 03/22/2010 : 13:21:18
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| BTW i just looked at the poll and more are in favor of paying him his worth at 5 m. lets give the poll some time for more than a handful vote before you cast judgement on the outcome of the results are justifiable |
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Guest6871
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Posted - 03/22/2010 : 13:27:05
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FYI: Kesler is in his 5th full year with Vancouver. Hank and Dank Sedin got 75 and 71 pts each in their 5th years in Vancouver.
Kesler will easily match those numbers this year, and if anyone has been watching the Canucks over the last 6-8 years, the Sedins were NEVER on a penalty kill until they were in their 6th or 7th year on the team....
Not saying that Kesler will become like the Sedin's HOWEVER, the Sedin's had plenty of Nay-sayers in their day too.
This subject may be beat back and forth for a considerable amount of time, but i will say one thing:
Of the 30 GM's in the league, I will bet there are 29 that wish they were in the Canucks situation with a player like Kesler available to lock up.
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2010 : 13:44:45
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
I agree with 95% of this. One thing I disagree with is that the an offer sheet would have been bigger than $5 million or would even come at all. First of all, the likes of Jokinin, Whitney, Frolov, Plekanec, Marleau, Holmstrom, Ponikarovksy, and Armstrong are just some of the UFA's that are on the list this year. Couple that with the likes of Ryan, Wolski, Wheeler, Pavelski, and Setogouchi as RFA's there is a ton on the market.
Secondly, a $5 million offer means a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick. If the offer goes over $5.2 million, that means 2-1st', a 2nd and a 3rd. All due respect to Ryan Kesler, even his biggest fans would say that is too much to give up for Kesler.
Now, to something that is dear to my heart. Keeping your players happy by overpaying them to avoid arbitration is a serious mistake. It's foolish management and it makes no sense in any situation. Bottom line is that most players take a discount to stay in the place they want to play, they don't demand an over payment. They get paid to play. They don't like the deal, to bad. Arbitration is there for exactly that purpose. If a team and a player(agent) can't agree, they let a mediator agree for them.
I say Bollocks, you get offered a fair contract and you play or you don't play and don't get paid or go to the KHL or whatever.
Look at the Nashville Predators, they have made a living off paying players fair market value. They don't have a single contract with a cap hit more then $4.5 million and their overall cap hit is $44 million.
You don't have to sell the farm to pay a player what they are worth.
First, of the guys you listed, only one would i even bother to compare to Kesler and that would be Marleau, who FYI, makes over 6mil and has only barely been a ppg player twice. Yes, he's on course for another this year (barely i might add) but that's as a first liner with Thornton and Heatley as linemates! I have no doubt there'd have been offer sheets thrown at him at or above 5 mil. C'mon, even you say ALL offer sheets are over valued so 5 mil would seem obvious, no? I don't think the bottom feeders would have gone after him knowing the picks they'd have to give up but a team who's first round pick might be in the 15-25 range certainly wouldn't hesitate to part with that pick for a guy of Kesler's pedigree.
As for Nashville, there's a really good reason that they don't have a single player over 4.5 mil a season. It's because they don't have a single player worth over that! If you call Arnott at 4.5 a good signing, then Kesler at 5 is a bargain! Besides, agree or not with that, where's it gotten Nashville??? Four first round playoff exits! Not something most teams strive for.
Here's a clip from an article i found. Take it for what it's worth.
During the negotiation, Kesler was seeking $5.5 million per year on a long-term deal. The Canucks were countering with something in the $4.5 million-a-year range.
The Canucks felt it was worth it for them to move to $5 million a year on a six-year deal, because in the last four years of the contract Kesler is giving up his unrestricted free agent status.
Considering he's often compared to Mike Richards and his 5.75/year, i think he's gonna prove to be a good deal. Not a steal by any means for either side but likely a fair deal all around. |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2010 : 14:00:49
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He might be compared to Mike Richards, but only in Vancouver. Mike Richards is a franchise player who has done more in the past 2 seasons than Kesler has in 5!! Find me something, anyting, written or recorded by someone outside of Vancouver that reasonably compare the two players.
Furthermore, the point has been missed again. To be clear, why spend $5 million in Kesler and give up at least 3 draft picks when you could get Frolov or Jokinen for $4 million and give up zero draft picks. My point was that an offer sheet is not as likely as people think it is. Name me teams in the NHL today that would give up 3 draft picks for Kesler because they so desperately need an top teir 2nd line centre??
This is the compensation break down based on an RFA offer sheet. ANYTHING higher than $3.9 million is 3 draft picks(1st, 2nd, and 3rd), not one. Anything more than $5.2 million is 4 draft picks(2-1st, 2nd, and 3rd)
Amount
Compensation Due
$863,156 or less
None
$863,156 - $1,307,811
3rd round pick
$1,307,811 - $2,615,623
2nd round pick
$2,615,623 - $3,923,434
1st and 3rd round pick
$3,923,434 - $5,231,246
1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
$5,231,246 - $6,539,061
Two 1st's, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
$6,539,061 or more
Four 1st round picks
I was not comparing the players, I was simply stating that there are other playes availble that would have zero negative impact as they are UFA's and also that Kesler, as good as he is, is not worth 3 draft picks to nearly any team. Specifically in the salary cap world.
I can see the logic behind the $5.5 million vs the $4.5 million and it's 6 of one, 1/2 dozen of the other.
As I believe we have agreed, if Kesler is a 65+ point player, with a couple of PPG seasons, AND the Canucks succeed, then it's a fair deal.
Perhaps I have just watched to many players sign the big deal and then do nothing afterwards. It's huge shoes to fill in a deal so long and so lucrative. It's a tall order that I just don't see being filled. Why put the pressure on a guy to perform over his head??
And finally, to the Nashville comment, again the point was missed. The point is that Nashville has made the playoffs (or soon will have made the playoffs) 4 of the past 5 seasons without having that superstar either on the ice or on the books. |
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fat_elvis_rocked
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
902 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2010 : 15:05:52
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I am reading back and forth the ongoing debate, and I am throwing out a simple question, what are the intangibles that Kesler brings, or in Beans' stance, doesn't bring, that make this such an agreeable/disagreeable signing.
Do comparisons really 'tell the tale', regarding his worth, to the team that offers him the contract? Do the Canucks feel he is worth an offer that guarantees he stay there, because of the intangibles?
Stats and comparables are nice, but really, if his numbers continue to improve, or even stay similar, and he continues to be a leader and worthy of Selke-consideration, I think they may be getting a deal in a year or two....who knows....I don't think every contract signed on some intangibles and speculation are bad things, it seems to be only the ones the Oilers sign....sigh. |
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Guest2247
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Posted - 03/22/2010 : 15:45:15
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Beans you answered my question the way i thought you would.
Guest 4167 i totally agree with you, league GM`s druel over players like kesler, complete package players. BEANS you are a numbers guy...NUMBERS guys make lousy GM`s. Bet you picked RUSSIA to play for the gold at the olympics did you ?? Players like KESLER shut down RUSSIA`s numbers guys every time. I wagered on Canada / USA ( gold medal game ) before the olympics started because of players like UNDER-RATED kesler and their worth. I used to weigh more value in your posts, but guest 4167 is right, you wont give in an inch...WHY bring up Gaborik Beans ??...he is better than a PPG player when 100 % healthy PLUS he makes damn more than 5 MILLION per year. |
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Guest6871
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Posted - 03/22/2010 : 16:16:00
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Beans,
The Canucks are NOT looking for draft picks in compensation for Kesler, they want the Cup NOW!!. Not in 5 year when those draft picks MAY pan out........
Drop it buddy, you're way off.
The people in here have spoken and most agree that the Kesler signing was good, at a reasonable and expected price, and would have most likely been signed by someone else for more money.
THAT IS A FACT! |
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Guest0929
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Posted - 03/22/2010 : 16:23:38
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Hey look Beans, even Ray Ferraro thinks you're wrong:
I wrote back in October, after Ryan Kesler had nine points in his first 10 games, that the Canucks were eventually going to have to include him in their core group as they look towards the future. I felt that his contract would be less than Mike Richards and north of David Krejci. That's where Kesler's contract eventually came in at, and a player who has built his game to be an almost perfect No. 2 centre is justly rewarded. In the last three years, his points have gone from 37 to 59 to 66 - and he has done that without sacrificing his role of handling the opposition's top offensive line. The one area that has seen the biggest increase has been his power play time, and as a result he has a career high 12 power play goals.
Kesler has a deceptive release and will shoot off the half wall on either side. Most players don't shoot with their stick on the board side on the power play from the half wall, but Kesler is not shy to let it go from the top of the circle. Some have suggested that $5 million is too high for Kesler, but you have to look at the total of what is available and how each team balances the total. Add Kesler's $5 million per year cap hit to Alex Burrows' $2 million cap hit and it's easy to see that a combined $3.5 million for the next three years for these two players alone leaves Vancouver in good shape. I am still a little unsure about Vancouver's defence, in particular without Willie Mitchell, and that was illustrated in giving up 54 shots to the Red Wings in the OT loss Saturday. But with Daniel Sedin scoring his 20th goal, the Canucks have six players with 20 goals and might be able to outscore a few problems in the playoffs.
(tsn.ca)
So you still being stubborn? |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2010 : 22:48:51
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quote:
Originally posted by Beans15
He might be compared to Mike Richards, but only in Vancouver. Mike Richards is a franchise player who has done more in the past 2 seasons than Kesler has in 5!! Find me something, anyting, written or recorded by someone outside of Vancouver that reasonably compare the two players.
Okay, here's a few.....
1.) http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/28388-Top-Shelf-Time-is-now-for-Kesler-to-lead-Canucks.html
He’s basically Mike Richards West, as long as we acknowledge nobody does what he does as well as Richards, a player whose two-way, jam-filled game is without equal right now.
Still, despite a 25-point chasm in potential offensive output, there are undeniable points of comparison between Kesler and Richards, starting with the fact Kesler was taken 23rd overall, one spot ahead of Richards in the 2003 draft.
They were also potential teammates when former Philadelphia GM Bob Clarke signed Kesler to an RFA offer sheet in the summer of 2006. I suspect tendering that offer, which Vancouver obviously matched, may have had more to do with Clarke recognizing what Kesler has in common with a former Flyer captain as much as any similarities with Philly’s current ‘C’ bearer.
Keep in mind, this was written at the beginning of the season, before Kesler began this breakout year.
2.) http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/Canucks-ink-Kesler-for-6-more-years-of-agitation?urn=nhl,229047
Though they're comparable players, the notion of Kesler getting Mike Richards(notes) money ($5.75 annual cap hit) was poo-poo'd by the Kurtenbloggers. Heated Skates figured $4 million per year before the start of the season; one has to believe that price went up during the season.
3.) You have to scroll down a bit for this one..... http://intheot.com/hockey/
Here's the important part. The writer supplies a list of "comparables" to Kesler, and guess who's on it?
The $5 million per year may seem like a bit of a high total going into next season for a 2nd line center. Keep in mind that Kesler is now entering his prime; he is an elite shutdown center who will be a year in year out Selke trophy nominee and has the skills to have 70+ points. But when you look around the NHL at what some comparable players going into the 2010/11 season next year I believe it’s more than fair value.
Scott Gomez $7.37 million
Brad Richards $7.8 million
Chris Drury $7.05 million
Anze Kopitar $6.8 million
Paul Statsny $6.6 million
Daniel Briere $6.5 million
Michael Cammalleri $6 million
Mike Richards $5.75 millionShawn Horcoff $5.5 million
Phil Kessel $5.4 million
Olli Jokinen $5.2 million
Jeff Carter $5 million
Mike Ribeiro $5 million
There's 3 for ya Beans. Anything else i can do for ya? 
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 07:31:33
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Nope, hat's off that you could find two blogs and a sports writer from Vancouver to prove your point. Just for giggles, here is a stroy from a sports writer that say something a little different.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/366073-canucks-re-sign-kesler-to-ridiculous-deal-implications-for-rest-of-nhl
At the end of the daym, they are all opinions that will either be proven right or wrong.
Time will tell. I have eaten crow before, but in this case I have a pretty good feeling that I won't.
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Edited by - Beans15 on 03/23/2010 07:49:37 |
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Hugh G. Rection
Rookie
165 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 08:09:55
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What I find nonsensical is your contention that you have to 1) be on the first line and 2) Be a PPG player in order to earn the $5 million. What?? Max contract is around 10, so 5 per season to me is a solid second-tier star (Kesler and co.). Let the Sedins/Luongo make slightly more, surround them with 5-3 million dollar men and see how far you can go.
Everyone would agree that he's worth 4-4.5 No matter what, so why not overpay a little in order for the no offer-sheet insurance? Canucks don't want to have to match some idiot GM again in the off-season, and don't say they want the draft picks because the core of their team is entering their prime, and they have proven once before they would rather keep Kesler. |
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Guest4339
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Posted - 03/23/2010 : 09:22:08
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This is still going on? and there's a poll now too?
Wow...this is getting way bigger than it needs to be. [That's what she said]. |
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fat_elvis_rocked
PickupHockey Pro
Canada
902 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 09:39:40
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quote:
Originally posted by Guest4339
This is still going on? and there's a poll now too?
Wow...this is getting way bigger than it needs to be. [That's what she said].
Funny....my wife says the same thing about my ego too!!  |
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n/a
deleted
4809 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 10:03:57
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The 'nuck fans have certainly convinced me, especially where comparisons are concerned: Kesler is probably a pretty good deal at the price they got him at.
Kesler is also a better player IMHO than half of the players on the list that Alex116 provided, and at least as good or comparably good to the rest.
"Take off, eh?" - Bob and Doug |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 10:44:34
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Beans:
quote:
Nope, hat's off that you could find two blogs and a sports writer from Vancouver to prove your point. Just for giggles, here is a stroy from a sports writer that say something a little different.
How far down the google results did you have to search for this one Beans? Did you actually read this article and agree with it?
You're right, everyone has an opinion, and I've seen opinions on both sides for the Kesler signing on a lot of news wires. This one is more flawed than others though. Here are the problems I have with this one:
- comparison to Ryan Callahan. Beans, even you didn't have the gall to make that comparison in your long list of comparisons, and that one is truly laughable. I love this: "In fact, if you compare their numbers, they are very similar, save for Kesler’s assists, because he is a center and Callahan is a wing" Yah, they are very similar - except for goals, assists, +/-, PIM, PPG, and GP, each of which Kesler is significantly higher.
- use of goals as the sole measuring stick for a player worth. That is absurd. First of all, Kesler is a centre, which means that goals are actually secondary (hey, they're nice, but I want my centre to be playmaking to a high scoring winger). Have a look at some stats, and note some of the centres making more than 5M/year:
- Getzlaf - may end up with 25. He has never scored more than 25 in a single season
- Thornton - will probably end up with 22-25. Has only scored more than 30 twice in his career, and looks to avg something like 28
- Statsny - on pace for 20-ish, never higher than 24
- Brad Richards - career high of 26 goals
- Datsyuk - looks to avg about 28 goals a year
- Sedin - this year is a bit of a goal breakout year, but usually is good for 20-ish.
- Horcoff - I throw it in for you Beans, even the year that he got his huge contract he only scored 22 goals.
There are another group of centres that have scored more goals, but don't get as many assists (Stamkos, Malkin, Kopitar this year, Jeff Carter, Zetterberg), however many of these don't play pure centre and get more goals due to winger duty. A few centres (Stamkos, Staal, Crosby) are scoring threats as well as playmakers, and are worth their weight in gold.
- the fact that he finds the contract absurd because the raise is too much from contract to contract. I don't have time to research it, but I'm going to guess that Kesler is not the only player in NHL history to see his pay go up 3x from one contract to the next, its pretty normal to see as players emerge from underpaid contracts, or entry level deals.
This guy obviously does not see Kesler play often. Hey, he's an NYR fan and probably New York based, so he's probably not catching too many west coast games. He should not be writing about that which he does not know.
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 11:52:24
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The best thing about this is that Most people (not all) are comparing the best players in the league to Kesler's one season. Again, if and When Kesler is doing 60-70 point seasons year after year, then put in the comparison.
Getlaf, B. Richards, Thornton, Datsuyk, Sedin all have MULTIPLE seasons better than Kesler. Getlzaf did not get his contract on one season, he got it on 3 consecutive 25 goal seasons and one 2 consecutive 80+ point seasons. Thornton has more assists in one season than Kesler has points!! Datsuyk is the actual best 2 way players in the game while being just shy of 100 points.
The best comparison to Kesler (today) is Horcoff. One great season and the rest are ok, but nothing special.
The Canucks(and obviously their fans) have banked on Kesler doing this year after year. I am not convinced and the only thing that will convince me is him repeating the performance year after year.
And to Hugh, considering contract signed for next season for all forwards:
19 Forwards will make $7-10 million
22 Forwards will make $5.1-7 Million
10 Forwards will make $5 million dead on.
This means that the top 50 forwards in the NHL will make more than $5 million a year. Considering that there are 90 players (3 on each of the 30 teams) that make up the 1st lines, only around 60% of the first line forwards in the NHL make $5 million or more.
Considering that many have agreed that Kesler is a borderline 1st line centre but definately a top teir 2nd line centreman, he's in the wrong salary grouping.
So ya, to make $5+ million as a forward in the NHL today, one should be a first line player.
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 12:52:12
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Beans:
quote:
The best thing about this is that Most people (not all) are comparing the best players in the league to Kesler's one season. Again, if and When Kesler is doing 60-70 point seasons year after year, then put in the comparison.
Getlaf, B. Richards, Thornton, Datsuyk, Sedin all have MULTIPLE seasons better than Kesler. Getlzaf did not get his contract on one season, he got it on 3 consecutive 25 goal seasons and one 2 consecutive 80+ point seasons. Thornton has more assists in one season than Kesler has points!! Datsuyk is the actual best 2 way players in the game while being just shy of 100 points.
Beans, seriously, read my post again. I do not compare Kesler to any of the above players. I used them as examples of players that score less goals than other players yet still garner big contracts. The author's premise was that 26 goals per season is not worth 5M/year, and I am poking holes in it.
quote:
The best comparison to Kesler (today) is Horcoff. One great season and the rest are ok, but nothing special.
Horcoff is not particularly valid - looking at his stats you see a very well defined bell curve, whereas Kesler has only gone up (granted, he's had less time in the NHL). Also, Horcoff is EDM #1 centre (for better or worse), and therefore plays with a different calibre of players and gets PP and ice time that Kesler does not. I'm sure if you put Kesler with Hemsky the points would grow mightily for Kes.
I'm not really sure who the best comparison to Kesler is - off the top of my head, I'd have to say Patrice Bergeron (same type of role/age) or perhaps Patrick Sharp. I might even call him a "poor mans Mike Richards". Those examples are based on the varied role that each of those players plays on their respective teams, rather than just points (although stats are sort of in the ballpark).
quote:
And to Hugh, considering contract signed for next season for all forwards:
19 Forwards will make $7-10 million
22 Forwards will make $5.1-7 Million
10 Forwards will make $5 million dead on.
This means that the top 50 forwards in the NHL will make more than $5 million a year. Considering that there are 90 players (3 on each of the 30 teams) that make up the 1st lines, only around 60% of the first line forwards in the NHL make $5 million or more.
Considering that many have agreed that Kesler is a borderline 1st line centre but definately a top teir 2nd line centreman, he's in the wrong salary grouping.
So ya, to make $5+ million as a forward in the NHL today, one should be a first line player.
I'm pretty sure we've exhausted examples of "second line" players making more than 5M per year, this one is old. |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 13:20:22
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You are not poking holes in anything if you think for even a second that because Joe Thorton does not get more than 20 goals a year that he is not still a top 5 elite offensive talent in the league.
Secondly, you might want to take a closer look at Horcoff's ice time, not only this year but the past 3 years. He gets more time on the PK than on the PP and he is normally sitting with the 2nd PP unit. Sound familiar.
And you are exactly right, Horcoff's career has been a bell curve. Where were his 4th and 5th seasons of this career on that bell???
Sound familiar??? |
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Guest5231
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Posted - 03/23/2010 : 19:21:33
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Here is the point: Kesler would have been a RFA. RFAs do not get overpaid, unless your GM is an idiot. Here's why: they are restricted. That means that no team can go after them without incurring a significant penalty.
Offer sheets are EXTREMELY rare, the reason being that you necessarily have to overpay: first you have to pay an amount that the team with rights to the RFA thinks is ridiculous, PLUS you have to give up draft picks. So not only do you have to provide a salary that is, when considered by the other team, too much, you also have to give up additional assets, which are significant when you're talking about a player offered $5 mil.
Odds are, Kesler would not have recieved any offer sheets. Anyone claiming that Burke would have made one is forgetting that Burke had the ingenious idea of trading away the next two year's first round picks. So he would either have had to offer Kesler like $2 mil or go and acquire a first round pick just so that he could overpay Kesler. Even Burke is smarter than that.
You can't compare Kesler's contracts to the contracts of veterans like Gomez, because they were UFAs when they signed those contracts. This is simple economics: a UFA has 30 potential bidders, a RFA effectively has one. Therefore, RFAs will tend to be paid less relative to their overall abilities than UFAs.
Kesler is having a hell of a year, but he doesn't have a proven track record. By signing him to a long term, big money deal, Vancouver is opening themselves up to a huge potential liability if Kesler falls off, and I think Horcoff is the perfect example of when a deal like this has gone wrong.
That is why someone might think the Kesler deal was not the best signing in history... |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 21:56:09
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quote:
You are not poking holes in anything if you think for even a second that because Joe Thorton does not get more than 20 goals a year that he is not still a top 5 elite offensive talent in the league.
Yabut I am - the premise presented by the author of your ridiculous article, that 26 goals is not worth 5m per year. Read it again if you don't believe me. Of course Thornton is worth more than Kesler, any hockey fan would realize that, and realize what a stupid statement the author made.
quote:
Secondly, you might want to take a closer look at Horcoff's ice time, not only this year but the past 3 years. He gets more time on the PK than on the PP and he is normally sitting with the 2nd PP unit. Sound familiar.
[\quote]
Yeah, it does - just like Kesler. However, this year Horcoff has only managed to convert that type of time into 30 pts and a -28. Kesler meanwhile, has managed to parlay that time into 66 pts and +1. 2 years ago? Kesler wasn't even playing on the PP unless one of the other forwards was injured, and he was on the 3rd line - and yet still managed 37 pts and +1 to Horcoff's 50 pts and +1.
[quote]
And you are exactly right, Horcoff's career has been a bell curve. Where were his 4th and 5th seasons of this career on that bell???
Sound familiar???
Yep, both of them at the peak of their careers, with plenty of upside (Kesler is younger than Horcoff was when he signed his big deal). Like a situation that many young players find themselves in when a contract comes up for renewal and a team has to make a choice based on their feel for the player and the market. I like Kesler's upside more than I did Horcoff's at the time. |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 23:26:09
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Good point on the Horcoff thing Nuxfan, I agree that Kesler has more upside that Horcoff and is younger at the time of the signing than Horcoff was. However, I think the point is still valid that one hot year is just that. For about the 50th time, if Kesler drops at all in the next 6 years, the contract and the value will be immediately questioned.
And I re-read the article I posted. The jist that I see is that it's bad for the overall economics of hockey to start overpaying a players based on one year and one 20 goals. The arguement is are 50ish assists worth $5 million a season.
The 20 goal situation has a point, as there are 120 player (give or take) a year that get 20 or more goals. All this guys is saying is that not all of these guys are worth $5 million a year.
I think the point of the article was missed based on one statement, but hey, we all have different perspectives right?? |
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Hugh G. Rection
Rookie
165 Posts |
Posted - 03/24/2010 : 06:48:43
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| Change the title to 'nit picking NHL salaries'. You agree $4 million is good value for Kesler, and $5 mill might be good value if the trend of his career keeps escalating at the rate it is. Whoop dee-doo, plenty of teams have wasted way more money than $1 mill (Chicago), and can still compete for the cup. Kesler signing maybe overpaying, but if it is it's $1 mill a season. If I was a Canucks fan I wouldn't be too concerned, and as an outside observer I figure its more or less what he'd get elsewhere anyways. |
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Beans15
Moderator
Canada
8286 Posts |
Posted - 03/24/2010 : 07:30:34
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Oh I agree that teams have overspent by a lot more than the million that Kesler is getting over paid. Trust me, cheering for the team in the NHL with the most horrible contracts, few know that as well as an Oiler fan.
However, being a fan of the Oilers, it's also easy to see how much that million might impact a future signing. This may happen as early as next year.
Now, the Canucks have a bit of a cushion as Demitra is a $4 million salary that they will likely no resign, or at the least sigh for less. However, at with a cap hit of $45 million and 15 players signed, they have right around $9 million to sign 8 players.
Willie Mitchell is a UFA and making $3.5 million a season. If he resigns, even for that amount, it means $5.5 million to sign 7 players which is an average very close to the league min. If the Canucks don't resign Mitchell and want to chase UFA like a Dan Hamhuis, Dennis Seidneburg , or Zbynek Michalek, they will be spending Mitchell money or more.
That million might mean the difference between being able to sign the player they want or not. To remain in their position, they will need to resign or replace both Demitra and Mitchell with similar or better performing players on top of 6 other players.
It will be tight. |
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Guest2114
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Posted - 03/24/2010 : 08:23:28
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Here's another take at why Kesler got the money he did.
He's an American. I honestly believe he's probably the best young American pivot on the market. Now, you might disagree, but we've already place him as a borderline number 1 center, but a certified number 2.
I couldn't find a good list of American-born players, but consider the Olympic four: Kesler, Pavelski, Statsny, Drury. Kesler is either number one or two on the team depending on what you want. (more offence than Pavelski, more defence than Statsny) Surely that would put him in the top five American born pivots.
So if you are a struggling USA franchise, and you need someone to pin your fans hopes on, and to get your fans pumped for the game, why not look to a high level American born player?
We all know the states like to "buy American" |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/24/2010 : 11:23:03
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quote:
I think the point of the article was missed based on one statement, but hey, we all have different perspectives right??
No, I saw the point he was trying to make. I just didn't agree with it, I like Kesler's deal and don't think we overpaid. There is nothing I can say to counter it though, time will either prove me right or wrong.
quote:
Now, the Canucks have a bit of a cushion as Demitra is a $4 million salary that they will likely no resign, or at the least sigh for less. However, at with a cap hit of $45 million and 15 players signed, they have right around $9 million to sign 8 players.
Willie Mitchell is a UFA and making $3.5 million a season. If he resigns, even for that amount, it means $5.5 million to sign 7 players which is an average very close to the league min. If the Canucks don't resign Mitchell and want to chase UFA like a Dan Hamhuis, Dennis Seidneburg , or Zbynek Michalek, they will be spending Mitchell money or more.
That million might mean the difference between being able to sign the player they want or not. To remain in their position, they will need to resign or replace both Demitra and Mitchell with similar or better performing players on top of 6 other players.
It will be tight.
It will. According to capgeek, the Canucks have 46M committed next year, and have to replace 9 positions with 10M. Demitra will be gone. Wellwood will be gone. I would suggest that one of Bieksa or Salo will be traded, and Bernier will be traded (or at least offerred), to free up some more space. Rome will not be qualified, and Baumgartner will be back in the minors. We will try to resign Mitchell (assuming he is healthy after the concussion), and I hope it will be to a lifetime contract that is cap favourable (similar to Pronger/Luongo). We'll try to get Raymond back but he is RFA so its not an immediate worry. Hansen and Glass are role players that will be back in the 500-600K range.
Next year the Canucks are going to have to start bringing up some of their prospects and take advantage of those entry level contracts - I would be surprised if at least 2 of Hodgson, Grabner, Schroeder, Oberg are not on the Canucks starting roster in September.
For teams that want to remain competitive and pay near the cap, its always tough. |
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nux-suk
Top Prospect
41 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2010 : 14:11:40
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Maybe you guys think Kesler (21g 46a 67pts +/- 0) is worth 5 mil.
Maybe Minnesota should pay Miko Koivu (20g 46a 66pts +/- 1) 5 mil. also.
Or how bout L.Erikson (27g 38a 65pts. +/- -5)
YOU ARE FIRED AS GM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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Guest0935
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Posted - 03/25/2010 : 14:35:07
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quote:
Originally posted by nux-suk
Maybe you guys think Kesler (21g 46a 67pts +/- 0) is worth 5 mil.
Maybe Minnesota should pay Miko Koivu (20g 46a 66pts +/- 1) 5 mil. also.
Or how bout L.Erikson (27g 38a 65pts. +/- -5)
YOU ARE FIRED AS GM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As a Canuck hater, you obviously have a biased opinion but at least try to put the salaries in context. Koivu signed his contract after a single 20 goal - 54 point season.
The Stars also signed Eriksson to a 6 year deal worth $25.5M, so 6 years at $30M isn't exactly outlandish. Their points totals and ice time are similar, but Eriksson gets more PP time whereas Kesler gets more PK time. Eriksson also is the beneficiary of many Brad Richards passes. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2010 : 16:14:10
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Eriksson is also a winger, which is always hard to compare to a centre - different things are expected from them. I'm not sure what Eriksson's 2-way game is like.
nux-suk, what do you think Koivu is going to sign for when his current contract is up? He has one more year @ 3.25 and then UFA. As guest pointed out, he signed that contract after a single 20g/50p year. If he continues to get 60+ points per year on a team as offensively challenged as MIN, I'm certain that his next contract will be at 5M/year. It probably won't be with MIN though... |
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irvine
PickupHockey Veteran
Canada
1315 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2010 : 16:28:51
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I can certainly see Koivu (Mikko) at the $4.0-4.5 million dollar salary range. And yes, even topped out at $5 Million per season. A slight raise of his 'worth' to most teams, but not to the Wild.
Koivu is the true leader of the Wild. He's the one that keeps this team focused both on and off the ice, while competing hard and leading by example every night.
He's not the most talented player in the game today, or perhaps even on the Wild. But he'll give you his all, every night, at both ends of the ice.
He's a solid two-way player, who is capable of hitting 60-65 Pts, every year I believe.
The Wild will re-sign him, and i'd not be surprised if he did sign a similar deal as Kesler.
Irvine/prez. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 12/16/2010 : 10:25:37
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I was thinking about this thread after I watched Kesler score all 3 of our goals in last nights game vs CBJ. The first one a wicked wrist shot from the top of the circle with 30 seconds left in the period, the second a great individual heads-up resulting from a gift, the third a great finish from the Sedin's on a 4-on-3 OT PP. Also, he was the most dominant defensive forward on the ice, and 9/19 in the faceoff circle (below his yearly average).
We're about a 3rd of the way through the first year of his much-debated contract, and so far so good:
29 GP, 24pts (15g, 9a), +7, 30PIM. Shooting% (Beans favourite) of 16.9%, playing 20-25 minutes a game. Playing on the first PP unit with the Sedins (and having success as the big body in front of the net), and 1 of our top-4 PK forwards (with Burrows, Malhotra, Raymond).
More than that, I think he has been a true leader on the team, certainly as much as Hank. He plays hard every night, and looks dangerous doing so. One of the few Canucks that likes to just take the puck to the net and go for it, throws his body around, does not give up on the puck ever.
Early days yet - but this signing is looking to be a very good one. |
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Alex116
PickupHockey Legend
6113 Posts |
Posted - 12/16/2010 : 12:36:03
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And to think, many Canucks fans were horrified when Dave Nonis matched Clarke's 1.9 million dollar one year offer back in '06 (i think that was the year?). Can you imagine if he'd let him go and he was now in Philly? Wow!
Going into this season, he was the guy i really wanted to see get the C. I like Hank as much as the next guy but i prefer a more outspoken leader. Kesler has all the qualities i'd want in a captain and i still find too many locals here are pissed at his comments during the Olympics (which i had no prob with as i truly believe i took them in a different context than those who did, but that's a whole other debate).
Either way, he's looking like another pretty good signing. |
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nuxfan
PickupHockey All-Star
3670 Posts |
Posted - 12/16/2010 : 13:08:53
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quote:
Kesler has all the qualities i'd want in a captain and i still find too many locals here are pissed at his comments during the Olympics (which i had no prob with as i truly believe i took them in a different context than those who did, but that's a whole other debate).
I believe that his comments were probably the #1 reason why he didn't get the C, which is unfortunate. All it shows is passion (in this case for his home country after a pretty crushing loss), which is what you want in the dude wearing the C. But it was still too fresh in the minds of Canucklheads and management. |
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Guest6911
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Posted - 12/16/2010 : 13:39:45
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Hey Beans, how's that crow tasting? ;)
After last nights game, it should be clear that Kesler will live up to his contract's expectations (unlike Kovalchuk).
Kesler compared to Horcoff? Please. To Erat? HA! Let Kesler go to free agency and pick up Frolov or Olli Jokinen instead? Double HA!
Overpriced signing, my ASS. |
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Topic |
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Kesler Signs for 6 yrs 
